Fulham and Leeds face off in the Premier League’s lunchtime kick-off at Craven Cottage today, where Marco Silva’s side are the bookmakers’ favourites to collect maximum points at the Yorkshiremen’s expense.
Leeds, who shipped a galling 11 goals in their last two assignments, are in a perilous position just above the division’s drop zone and having already lost an FA Cup tie at Fulham as recently as late February (0-2), knees could be knocking in the United ranks again.
I’ve lined up a stats pack for today’s clash below which comes equipped with everything you need to construct savvier bet builders for the game. As always, check out my Stats Pack Guide if you require any further assistance.
Predicted Lineups
Fulham will be without the services of the injured Neeskens Kebano and Layvin Kurzawa today, while Aleksandar Mitrovic is still suspended and cannot feature. Dan James meanwhile, cannot play against his parent club and will be a spectator this afternoon.
Bobby De Cordova-Reid could be deployed in a central striking role, with support coming from William, Andreas Pereira and Harry Wilson behind. Palhinha and Harrison Reed should continue their partnership at the base of the Cottagers’ midfield.
Tyler Adams and Stuart Dallas are still in the treatment room for Leeds, while Patrick Bamford is a doubt after he picked up a calf injury earlier in the week. Rodrigo looks set to reprise his role as the team’s spearhead in attack.
With Adams absent, Marc Roca should hold on to his place in midfield alongside Weston McKennie. Brenden Aaronson could play as the then with Jack Harrison and Luis Sinisterra operating on the flanks. Leeds’s 4-2-3-1 formation should be similar to Fulham’s.
Team Stats
Fulham snapped a four-game losing streak with a timely 3-1 win at Everton last weekend, keeping their hopes of securing a top-half finish alive. The Cottagers have defied their critics this term and the have been competitive enough since their promotion to rank in middle ground for xG, shots and shots on target per 90.
Defensively, the picture isn’t quite so pretty however, with Fulham sitting among the league’s bottom four for shots on target and xG against, while Marco Silva’s side have collected the joint-most cards in the division alongside Forest. Fulham are priced at 8/15 to pick up over 1.5 cards today.
Leeds’s underlying stats for the campaign suggest they are perhaps a little unfortunate to be so deeply embroiled in a relegation battle. United have been posting mid-table figures for xG and both shooting metrics, while half a dozen sides have been facing more shots per 90 than they have.
Interestingly, only five teams have been conceding fewer corners than Leeds, which could open an avenue to back Fulham in the under 5.5 corners market today at 1/2. Both teams to score has also landed in 100% of Leeds’s last six fixtures, an outcome which can be backed at 4/6 this afternoon.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
With talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic still serving a ban, Brazilian duo Andreas Pereira and Willian are the likeliest candidates to deliver some good numbers in the shooting department against Leeds today.
Willian and Pereira both clocked shots on target when Fulham beat Leeds 3-2 at Elland Road in October and they are priced at 8/11 and 8/13 respectively to match that output in the 1+ SOTS market this afternoon.
Rodrigo, Luis Sinistera, Brenden Aaronson and Jack Harrison have all been straining to make an impact for Leeds in the final third this season, though Spaniard Rodrigo and Colombian Sinisterra have been doing the best work in terms of accuracy.
That pair managed to rack up seven shots between them and one effort on target each in Leeds’s heavy loss to Liverpool on Monday, and that duo have skillsets that could trouble Fulham today. Rodrigo is 2/5 to lodge 1+ shots on target, while winger Sinisterra is 4/9 in the same domain.
Player Goals and Assists
Aleksandar Mitrovic’s lengthy suspension is a big blow for Fulham, though his teammates have been sharing the goals around in his absence, and the Cottagers’ last four Premier League goals were notched by four different players.
Andreas Pereira notched one of those (vs Bournemouth) and the club’s leading assist maker for the campaign created two goals when Fulham beat Leeds in October. The 27-year-old could be one to watch at 7/5 to either score or assist again today.
Rodrigo is Leeds’s leading marksman in the Premier League with 11 goals this season, though the 32-year-old has found the net just twice in the top flight since the turn of the year and he hasn’t done enough of late to make him a viable option in the markets.
Instead, the pacey Luis Sinisterra fits the bill. The 23-year-old has impacted the scoresheet in two of his last three Premier League appearances and he usually operates a shoot on sight policy. Sinisterra is priced at 3/1 to net anytime this afternoon.
Player passes
Centre-backs Tim Ream and Tosin Adarabioyo tend to see quite a bit of the ball for Fulham, with the team’s midfielders given a more combative than playmaking remit, and I expect the host’s defenders to top the passing charts again today.
When Fulham beat Leeds 2-0 at Craven Cottage in the FA Cup in February, Adarabioyo and Ream played 69 and 77 passes respectively, though the former represents the best value in the market today at 5/6 in the 70+ passes realm compared to the much skinner prices on offer for Ream (1/5).
When Leeds last visited Craven Cottage in February, they posted a possession figure of 46.1% which Tyler Adams – who is missing today – topping the individual distribution charts for Leeds with 56.
His compatriot Weston McKennie was next in line with 50 passes that day and the American international is 7/4 to beat a similar target (50+ passes) in today’s rematch. Jack Harrison, who pinged north of 30 passes in two of his last three starts also deserves attention at 8/11 to play 30 or more again later on.
Fulham Cards and Fouls
Fulham have plenty of excellent card and foul candidates in their ranks, starting with tough-tackling midfielder Palhinhia who likes to throw his weight around most weeks. The Portuguese anchorman is 12/5 to collect his 11th Premier League booking of the campaign today, while his foil, Harrison Reed is listed at 3/10 to commit one or more fouls, something he has done in five of his last seven starts.
Right back Kenny Tete, who has been committing fouls at a rate of 1.47 per 90, could have a tricky customer to mark today in Leeds’s winger Wilfried Gnonto, and the Dutch defender piques my interest to sin at least twice at 10/11 this afternoon.
American schemer Brenden Aaronson has been fouled 2.1 times per 90 in the Premier League this season and the lightweight attacking midfielder could be knocked about by the more imposing Palhinha today.
Marc Roca (1.14) could also feel the squeeze in midfielder when he battles for supremacy against the aggressive Harrison Reed, while tricky Leeds flanksman, Wilfried Gnonto (2.60), has a pair of feet quick enough to entice Kenny Tete into some ill-judged tackles on the left.
Match-Ups to watch
Palhinha vs Brenden Aaronson
Harrison Reed vs Marc Roca
Kenny Tete vs Wilfried Gnonto
Leeds Cards and Fouls
Wilfried Gnonto is as tigerish off the ball as he is lethal on it, and the diminutive winger has a high foul count per 90 for a player in his position. The 19-year-old is generously priced at 4/11 to commit 1+ fouls against Fulham today.
Further back, the aggressive Junior Firpo has a habit of crossing the line and his cynicism could land him in trouble again this afternoon. Firpo is backable at 4/11 to commit 2+ fouls, while Marc Roca (1.41) is 11/10 in the same bracket. The 26-year-old committed at least two fouls in five of his last six Premier League appearances.
Kenny Tete is often on the end of as much punishment as he dishes out and the Dutch defender, who has been fouled 1.56 times per 90, could have his ankles clipped by the enthusiastic Gnonto today. Fulham winger Harry Wilson meanwhile, who has been fouled 2.30 times per 90, could be on the end of a heavy tackle or two from Junior Firpo.
Andreas Pereira, who is a key creator for the Cottagers, should be tracked closely by Leeds’s midfield foul merchant, Marc Roca. There could be fouls in both directions in that head-to-head.
Match-Ups to watch
Wilfried Gnonto vs Kenny Tete
Junior Firpo vs Harry Wilson
Marc Roca vs Andreas Pereira
My bet builder picks of the pack
Fulham vs Leeds
22nd April
kick off 12:30 Marc Roca 1+ fouls
Roca commits 1.41 fouls p/90, and has received 5 bookings this season.
He has committed 2 fouls in each of his last 3 outings.
He will need to deal with Andreas Pereira who draws 1.05 fouls p/90.
Joao Palhinha 1+ foulsPalhinha commits 1.20 fouls p/90, and has received 10 bookings this season.
He will need to deal with Jack Harrison who draws 1.33 fouls p/90.
Fulham over 1.5 cardsNo team has received more cards than Fulham’s 72 this season.
They receive an average of 2.40 cards per game.
Leeds Over 1.5 CardsReferee Peter Bankes averages 4.44 cards per game.
Leeds received 2.26 cards per game.
Luis Sinisterra 1+ shots on targetLuis Sinisterra averages 1.11 shots on target p/90 from 2.78 attempts.
In his last 3 games, he has managed at least 1 shot on target in each (2, 2, 1).
He also attempted 4 shots in each of those.
