Fulham vs Newcastle Betting Tips and Stats

I’m not entirely sure what Eddie Howe has done to get this kind of output from William Osula, but whatever it is, it’s certainly working. The Danish youngster has been bagging goals for fun at the tail end of the season, and in a game that has little riding on it, I think he can close the campaign in style.

The current shape and combination of players at Newcastle just seems to work for Osula. He may only have seven league goals to his name, but five of those have come in his last six, and he comes into this off the back of a brace against West Ham. In fact, he has the single best goals to minute ratio of any player in the league to start more than one game, and there are few players that can match his recent form.

With Fulham now unable to qualify for Europe, you’d expect a more carefree approach to the game, with plenty of space to allow attackers to flourish. Marco Silva’s side have been tame in recent weeks as is, and a 1-1 draw against Wolves last weekend doesn’t give much hope for a clean sheet here.

I think it’s safe to say that Newcastle have benefitted massively from the return to fitness of Bruno Guimaraes. They’ve lost just once in four since his return to the starting XI, and it’s easy to understand why; not only does he bring plenty off the ball, he has the quality to turn the opposition midfield inside out.

It’s that quality on the ball that has to be the focus going into Sunday. Guimaraes has drawn 30 more fouls than any other player in the Newcastle squad this term, drawing 72 total at an average of 2.72 P/90. Only Forest’s Elliot Anderson has drawn more fouls in the league this season, and with this landing in seven straight for Guimaraes, including drawing five fouls in three straight games, two fouls drawn seems like a foregone conclusion.

This line honestly seems low given the ridiculous numbers put up by Newcastle’s Brazilian star, and Fulham’s midfield should help ease this over the line. Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge combine for 3.84 fouls P/90 in the Fulham pivot, and Bruno Guimaraes has every quality he needs to draw something from the pair.

The 1-1 draw brought a somewhat sour end to Fulham’s season. With Europe no longer possible by virtue of the fact that Sunderland and Chelsea play each other, they return to Craven Cottage no longer under pressure. I expect a more free flowing game as a result, and that paves the way for shots.

Alex Iwobi is one that could benefit in this instance. He registered two shots, and two on target, upon his return to the starting lineup last weekend, and whilst an average of 1.27 shots P/90 is nothing special, those numbers have been on the up. Iwobi has managed at least two shots in seven of his last 10 outings in all competitions, with an average of 2.01 P/90 over that run.

The reverse fixture earlier this term saw Iwobi hit two shots, and given that Newcastle find themselves in the same situation as Fulham heading into the final day, you’d expect Iwobi to find pockets of space to make an impact once again. Newcastle have conceded at least 11 shots in each of their last nine, conceding 14.67 per game in that run, all positive signs for Iwobi.