London rivals Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur are separated by just two points and two places in the Premier League table ahead of what promises to be an intriguing tussle at Craven Cottage his evening.
Spurs suffered a third defeat in four league assignments since the turn of the year when they were toppled 4-2 by Manchester City last time out, and with the wheels starting to fall off the Antonio Conte project, Tottenham appear vulnerable again heading into their clash with the Cottagers.
As per the usual routine, I’ve put together a stats pack for this evening’s showdown in the capital below, which is filled with everything you need to pick smarter selections for your bet builder. Use the info along with the tips in my Stats Pack Guide to beat the bookies today.
American fullback Antonee Robinson is free to play again following a one-game ban and the defender should replace Layvin Kurzawa in the Fulham XI this evening.
Issa Diop performed well at centre-half against Newcastle last weekend and he could hold on to his spot ahead of Tosin Adarabioyo today. Neeskans Kebano is a long-term absentee however, while Shane Duffy is struggling to shake off the effects of illness.
Tottenham have virtually a clean bill of health for this evening’s London Derby with Brazilian winger Lucas Moura listed as the club’s only current confirmed absentee.
Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski were rushed back into action somewhat against Man City last weekend, and Antonio Conte has decisions to make about both today. Ivan Perisic could be replaced at left wing-back by ex-Fulham starlet Ryan Sessegnon.
Fulham have been this season’s biggest surprise package and despite being tipped for relegation before a ball was kicked, the Cottagers are in the mix for continental qualification instead.
Their proactive, energetic football has been easy on the eye, though there are still plenty of defensive deficiencies for manager Marco Silva to address. Fulham have the worst xG against per 90 figures in the division, while only Brentford have been conceding more shots on target (p/90).
Fulham have also collected the joint-most cards in the league alongside Manchester United (50). The Cottagers are priced at 11/10 to pick up more cards than their visitors today.
Tottenham have been outperforming their xG in both directions (for/against) this season, while just three other Premier League clubs have been conceding more shots per 90 than Spurs so far.
Excitement levels in Tottenham’s games have routinely been high. Indeed, only Man City’s games (73) have featured more goals overall than Spurs’ (70).
Like Fulham’s (10.45), Tottenham’s league fixtures have contained plenty of corners this term (10.55 per game). Over 10.5 corners should pique interest at odds of 6/5 this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Aleksandar Mitrović is a potent talisman for Fulham and the Serbian striker is clear of the field for both shots and shot on target per 90 for the Cottagers this term.
The 28-year-old has an impressive three shots on target when Fulham lost at Tottenham in the campaign’s early throes back in September and Mitrovic is a decent prospect at 6/5 to lodge at least two accurate attempts again today.
Harry Kane didn’t manage to get any of his three strikes on target at The Etihad Stadium against Man City last time out, though the England international mustered five accurate attempts combined in his two Premier League appearances before that, and the 29-year-old is priced at 5/6 to hit the mark with two or more shots again this evening.
Elsewhere, Swedish flanksman Dejan Kulusevski could be an option to consider at 4/5 to hit at least one shot on target at Craven Cottage. The 22-year-old has found his range with an effort in each of his last four Premier League outings.
Player Goals and Assists
Aleksandar Mitrović missed a crucial spot kick against his old club Newcastle last weekend, though the 28-year-old rattled the net in five of his last seven Premier League starts before that, and he netted Fulham’s consolation at Spurs back in September.
As unimaginative a selection as it seems, Mitrović is good value at 6/5 to register anytime again this evening, while Brazilian playmaker Andreas Pereira is 5/2 to add to his haul of five Premier League assists.
The 27-year-old is really enjoying his football at Craven Cottage and the former Man Utd midfielder posted a whopping 17 shot-creating-actions in his last five runouts in the top flight.
With Heung-min Son still stuck in a bit of a rut and the rest of his supporting cast sporadic scorers at best, Harry Kane remains the strongest candidate in the anytime goalscorer market for Tottenham again today.
Kane notched one of his 15 Premier League goals against Fulham in September and the 29-year-old has started the New Year with three goals in five appearances in all competitions. The lethal finisher is generously priced at 11/10 to find the net again today.
Dejan Kulusevski finished a chance well at City last weekend, however, that was his first Premier League goal since August. The 22-year-old went eight starts in the division without finding the net before he broke the deadlock at The Etihad Stadium.
Fulham had a shade less possession than Tottenham (48.1% – 51.9%) when the teams met at the start of the season and the ball should be split relatively evenly between the sides again this evening.
In terms of individual pass-masters for the Cottagers, Antonee Robinson and Issa Diop have the potential to beat the 70+ passes target today. Robinson (14/1) managed to push through that ceiling in two of his last four starts in the league, while Diop (6/4) completed the task in two of his last three starts in the top tier.
Clement Lenglet, Eric Dier and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg form a little possession rotation axis between defence and midfield for Tottenham and that trio fill the top three positions at the club for passes per 90 this term.
Danish midfielder Hojbjerg has played 70 or more passes in five of his last six starts in the Premier League, while cultured French centre-half Lenglet has jumped that barrier in two of his last three starts in the division. That pair are priced at 4/5 and 8/11 in the same market today.
Both Fulham fullbacks, Kenny Tete and Antonee Robinson, could be up against it today against two potentially dangerous opponents on the flanks.
Tete (23/10) and Robinson (12/5) have collected six and five Premier League cards each already this term, and they have tricky customers to combat in the serially-fouled duo, Heung-min Son and Dejan Kulusevski this evening.
Elsewhere, Portuguese (six cards) destroyer Joao Palhinha (2/1) is almost certain to rack up big numbers in the tackles and fouls departments today. The 27-year-old seems to conjure up extra energy for Fulham’s tougher tests.
In terms of overall numbers, Harry Kane (28) and Heung-min Son (21) have been Tottenham’s most-fouled players this season, and both of Spurs’ chief superstars will face aggressive opponents today.
Kane with have Palhinha on his toes when he comes deep to hunt the ball down, while Son will be marked by prolific card collector Tete. On the other winger Dejan Kulusevski’s skilful body swerves could lure Robinson into some mistimed challenges.
Match-Ups to watch
Kenny Tete vs Heung-min Son
Joao Palhinha vs Harry Kane
Antonee Robinson vs Dejan Kulusevski
Tottenham Hotspur Cards
Rodrigo Bentancur ranks joint-first at Tottenham for Premier League cards collected this season, though the Uruguayan international is out on his own for total number of fouls committed (22).
The 25-year-old is a solid price at 8/5 to be carded again today, while fellow South American Cristian Romero is also of interest at 13/8. The non-nonsense Argentinean was one of two Tottenham players cautioned against Man City last weekend.
Ryan Sessegnon (4/1) is an alternative option at meatier odds. The 22-year-old’s fouls per 90 figures are lofty, and he needs just one more card to position himself as one of Tottenham’s dirtiest players in 2022/23.
Joao Palhinha is a warrior in midfield for Fulham and his penchant for tackling with force often draws retribution from opponents. Sparks should fly in his battle with Tottenham’s Bentancur later on.
Willing runner Bobby de Cordova Reid can be a real handful down the Fulham right and the 29-year-old should give Ryan Sessegnon’s defensive skillset a thorough workout this evening.
Aleksandar Mitrović (fouled 1.58 times per 90) is a physical presence up front for the Cottagers and burly Serbian’s skirmishes with hot-headed Tottenham defender Romero could draw attention and cards from referee Paul Tierney.
Match-Ups to watch
Rodrigo Bentancur vs Joao Palhinha
Ryan Sessegnon vs vs Bobby de Cordova Reid
Cristian Romero vs Aleksandar Mitrović
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
If you’re looking at the stats pack and wondering how to make best use of it, here’s just a few selections that stood out to me as value based on the numbers.
Fulham vs Tottenham
Fulham score 1.60 goals per game, and concede 1.45.
They have an xG of 1.48 and an xGA of 1.70.
Tottenham score 1.95 goals a game, and concede 1.55.
They have an xG of 1.73 and an xGA of 1.72.
Harry Kane has 15 goals in 20 appearances.
He scored last time out against Fulham.
Kenny Tete commits 1.71 fouls P/90.
He has received 6 cards in 14 outings.
Up against Heung-Min Son who is fouled 1.28 times P/90.
Fulham have received 2.50 cards per game.
Tottenham opponents have received 2.20 cards per game.