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Germany vs Denmark
29th June
kick off 20:00 Germany to win 
Germany won 2 of their 3 group games, drawing with a solid Switzerland side in their other game and scoring 8 goals in the process.
They have had at least 18 shots in all 3 group games so far, whilst Denmark were unable to win a single group game, scoring just 2 goals.
Over 3.5 Denmark corners Denmark have had 4+ corners in all 3 group games to date, and deliberately aim to win corners to exploit their aerial threat.
The Danes had 8 and 9 corners in their games against Slovenia and Serbia, whilst Germany conceded 7 corners against Hungary who also tried to utilise their own aerial threat.
Jamal Musiala to have 1+ shots on target Musiala has had a shot on target in each of Germany’s 3 group stage games, and averages 1.25 shots on target per 90 at the Euros.
He has now had at least one shot on target in 5 straight starts for Germany at major tournaments, having done so in 2 of their 3 games at the 2022 World Cup.
Jamal Musiala to commit 1+ fouls Musiala has fouled in 2 of his 3 appearances at these Euros, committing 1.25 fouls per 90 and only failing to do so against Scotland, who had very little possession.
His matchup is Jannik Vestergaard, who has won three fouls already at the Euros, including twice in his last game v Serbia.
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Hosts Germany won their group with a last-second equaliser against Switzerland, and now face the runners-up from Group C, Denmark.
A slightly underwhelming final group game put a bit of a dampener on what had been an electric start to the tournament for Germany, while Denmark came through Group C without winning a game, drawing all three contests.
The Danes famously reached the semi-finals of this competition in 2021 but hopes of repeating those heroics have dimmed thanks to their challenging path to the latter stages.
You can check out our Stats Pack Guide to take advantage of the data in this article ahead of kick-off. We will be bringing you a Stats Pack for every single Knockout game of this tournament here at Badman Betting so make sure to come back to the site daily to give them a read.
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Germany vs Denmark Predicted Lineups
One enforced change for Julian Nagelsmann
Jonathan Tah’s second yellow card of the tournament means he is suspended for this game, which should lead to Nico Schlotterbeck slotting in alongside the man who beat him in the Champions League final last month, Antonio Rudiger. The Real Madrid defender has been dealing with a knock, but he is believed to be fit to start this game. Upfront, Niclas Fullkrug’s impressive showings off the bench should be giving Nagelsmann something to consider, but Kai Havertz looks likely to keep his starting role here. The rest of the side should be unchanged from that which faced Switzerland in their final group stage game.
Denmark to make a few changes
The suspension of Morten Hjulmand gives Kasper Hjulmand a decision to make in central midfield. However, Christian Norgaard looks ready to step in and take his place ahead of Thomas Delaney. VictorKristiansen also looks likely to start here ahead of Maehle, whilst Yussuf Poulsen may also get the call ahead of Jonas Wind here. Elsewhere there are no injury concerns or suspensions, so we expect the rest of the side that took to the field against Serbia to start again here.
Germany vs Denmark Team Stats
Germany offer nice value to win
The 1-1 draw with Switzerland was slightly underwhelming from the hosts, but credit should be given to Switzerland who showed real determination in a gutsy defensive display. Germany had 18 shots in that game, just one less than the 19 they had in the games against Scotland and Hungary, so they did not do anything significantly worse than they had done in their two wins, perhaps just being a little too wasteful in front of goal. Denmark have shown little to suggest that they are capable of such a solid defensive display, failing to win any group stage games and allowing both England and Slovenia to hit double figures for shots against them. Germany should really be larger favourites for this one, and that makes backing them to win without extra time at 1.57 a solid pick here.
Denmark could be good for corners here
The Danes have a defence comprised of aerial threats and have a variety of routines aimed at freeing one of their centre backs up from corners and free kicks. They will expect Germany to dominate the ball, so winning corners should be a priority here. Denmark have won four or more corners in each game at the finals, including eight and nine against Slovenia and Serbia, while Germany conceded seven against Hungary. The hosts did ship only two against Switzerland, but their opponents were defending a lead for much of the game and had little to gain pushing men forward. Denmark to have over 3.5 corners at 1.65 then looks to offer excellent value here, especially if Germany take the lead and their opponents are forced to go in search of a goal.
Germany vs Denmark Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Jamal Musiala the best option in a Germany shirt
Musiala has already scored twice at these Euros yet sits as high as 1.73 to have a shot on target here against Denmark. The Bayern Munich youngster is one of only two players likely to start that has hit over one shot on target per 90, currently sitting at 1.25 for the tournament. He has now had a shot on target in all three games Germany have played, and in five straight major tournament appearances for his country, having hit a shot on target in both of Germany’s final two group games at the Qatar World Cup in 2022. With players such as Deniz Undav and Leroy Sane sitting at shorter prices to hit the target here, Musiala’s price looks to be way too high, and should not be ignored.
Jannik Vestergaard an interesting option here
Denmark’s intention to create from set pieces was referenced above, and one of the main reasons for that is their tallest player, 6’7’’ centre-back Jannik Vestergaard. His height offers a natural advantage in the air, and the team have several routines designed to exploit this, something that has allowed Vestergaard to have three shots already at these finals. He has had at least one shot in two of his three starts, and a shot on target in two of these three also, making him an intriguing choice on the shot markets. He can be backed to have a shot at 2.63, or to have a shot on target at 8.0.
Germany vs Denmark Goals and Assists Stats
Kai Havertz a solid choice here
Havertz is one of four German players to have two combined goals or assists at this tournament and looks the best option in the goal or assist market here. The Arsenal forward has had more shots on target per 90 than any other player expected to start here, at 1.74, and has already assisted at the finals, setting up Jamal Musiala in the opening game against Scotland. Havertz is also the preferred penalty taker for Germany, offering an easier route to a goal should one be awarded. He can be backed to score or assist at 2.30.
Eriksen the best option for the Danes
Man United’s Christian Eriksen has generally been seen in a deeper role at club level in recent years, but for his national side he still plays right up the pitch as a number 10. Eriksen scored Denmark’s first goal of the tournament against Slovenia and has had two or more shots in each of their three games so far. He has also bagged four combined goals and assists in his last six games for Denmark, including friendlies, and had a goal and three assists in his last four qualifying games for this tournament. Eriksen can be backed to score or assist here at 4.0.
Germany Cards and Fouls Stats
Jamal Musiala a solid bet to commit a foul
Musiala has had an impressive home tournament so far, but he has not been averse to committing a foul, accumulating 1.25 per 90 across his three starts to date. The 21-year-old fouled twice against Switzerland and once against Hungary, and only failed to do so in the game against Scotland where Germany dominated possession, giving Musiala little to do in terms of defensive work. He will be up against Jannik Vestergaard, who has won three fouls at these Euros, winning at least one foul in each of his last two starts for Denmark, including two last time out against Serbia. Musiala is available to be backed at 1.50 to commit a foul here, a great price considering his record and matchup.
Eriksen looks like a big miss from the bookies
Despite being fouled four times in the group stage and having been fouled in four of his last five competitive starts for his nation, Christian Eriksen is available at a huge 2.50 to be fouled in this one, the highest odds available for any player on either side. The Dane will find himself up against Robert Andrich, who has committed a foul in two of Germany’s three games at the finals, and Toni Kroos, who has also committed fouls in two of his three starts here in Germany. With Eriksen having solid matchups and having been fouled 1.38 times per 90 at the Euros so far, backing him to win a foul at 2.50 could be a worthwhile addition to really boost your bet builder odds.
Denmark Cards and Fouls Stats
Hojbjerg an obvious choice for a foul
Up against Ilkay Gundogan, who has won fouls in two of his three starts at the Euros, and 1.03 fouls per 90 across the tournament as a whole, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg looks to offer great value in the fouls markets. The Tottenham midfielder has committed four fouls at the Euros already and has fouled in each of Denmark’s three group games. He fouled twice against England and has now committed a foul in six straight competitive international appearances for his country. With everything on the line, and many technical players adept at winning fouls around Hojbjerg in this game, it would be a surprise to see this fouling streak come to an end here. Backing him to foul at least once here at 1.44 looks to offer great value.
Maximilian Mittelstadt could be another miss here
The Stuttgart wing back has won a squad-leading 3.33 fouls per 90 at the Euros so far. Playing as a left back for his country, he has won two or more fouls in each of his three starts, including an incredibly impressive four fouls in just 60 minutes against Switzerland. Operating down Germany’s left flank, Mittelstadt will come into close contact with Rasmus Hojlund, who will be asked to press out wide to support right wing back Alexander Bah as the Danish midfield remains very narrow. Rasmus Hojlund has committed four fouls in the group stage and should clash with Mittelstadt at least once here. The German defender can be backed to win a foul at 1.33, or to win two or more fouls at 2.63.
Germany vs Denmark Matchups to watch
Jamal Musiala vs Jannik Vestergaard
Robert Andrich vs Christian Eriksen
Ilkay Gundogan vs Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg
Maximilian Mittelstadt vs Rasmus Hojlund
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