Germany vs Italy Bet Builder Tips, Preview

The second leg of the UEFA Nations League quarter final between Germany and Italy is set up nicely for goals because the away side, in this case Italy, begin the night trailing and if they are going to go through inside the 90 minutes they have to score twice on the night.

Germany have the advantage courtesy of a 2-1 win in Milan on Thursday evening but they will probably know that the chances are if they are going to progress smoothly they will need to score themselves in this second leg as they aren’t as tight at the back as they once were.

That should all make for a wide open game, where while the goals might not flow like certainly Italy would like, the game state should ensure we see at least two goals to add to the three we saw in Milan.

Only one of the last 13 Germany matches have had under 1.5 goals and just one of the last nine involving Italy have fallen short of that total. Expect those trends to be extended here.

One of the biggest dangers for Germany in that first leg was Leon Goretzka. You would imagine that his main threat would come from shooting from the edge of the box and around that area but actually he won three headers in the box.

In total, he had four shots in the first leg and put two of them on target and at the prices the better way of including him in the bet builder is to take him to have a shot on target given the xG levels of the chances he had in that opening game.

The three headers inside the box were 0.11, 0.11 and 0.25 in their xG levels so they were all great chances but we do have to recognise that Germany might be a little more circumspect, especially if they score first, therefore asking him to hit the target once rather than fire a number of shots at goal might be the safer play.

It clearly wasn’t the night that Italy would have wanted in that opening game but one man who provided a bit of a threat to the German backline was Sandro Tonali, the scorer of the Italian goal on the night, and him to register another shot here feels well within his range.

The game state should ensure that the box to box midfielders like the Newcastle man will need to operate a shoot on sight policy but the thing to like about Tonali was that he took an early free kick for the Italians so if he remains on set plays then he is naturally likely to get a shot away.

Tonali averages 1.14 shots per game for Newcastle in the Premier League so he is no stranger to trying his luck and although that average comes down to 0.87 per 90 in the Nations League, he hasn’t started a game a goal down in a tie in this competition before.

Tonali had a couple of shots in the cup final last weekend and two more on Thursday night so another here feels highly likely.

The final leg of the bet builder on Sunday night comes in the form of the Tottenham full-back Destiny Udogie to commit a foul.

He gave away three fouls in the first leg and being in a direct matchup with Leroy Sane you would imagine that the Spurs man would have his work cut out once again.

Udogie has been out injured for Tottenham for large parts of this season so a second game in three days might test him physically but with Federico Dimarco injured prior to the tie and Riccardo Calafiori picking up an injury which rules him out of this second leg, the Spurs star may need to go again for the 90 minutes.

Udogie commits 1.41 fouls per 90 for Tottenham in the Premier League this season and 1.79 per 90 when he puts an Italy shirt on in this competition. Those averages tell us another foul is likely to be committed her