Germany vs Paraguay Betting Tips and Stats

While I’m expecting Germany to have enough in their locker to overcome Paraguay on Monday night, I suspect they may need to score multiple goals to do so, which brings both teams to score into the equation. Julian Nagelsmann’s side looked far from convincing defensively across their three group stage matches. That is underlined by the fact that the Germans failed to keep a clean sheet against Curacao, Ivory Coast and Ecuador, with both teams scoring in each of those 3 contests.

Looking further back, BTTS would have been the correct call in 3 of Germany’s final 4 friendly fixtures ahead of the World Cup. They also failed to keep a clean sheet in a home win over Northern Ireland during qualification.

Paraguay will carry a threat on the counter-attack as well as from set-piece situations, so they could make their mark against what is a shaky German defence, as they did against both the USA and Turkey. It should also be noted that both teams scored in Paraguay’s warm-up matches against Japan, Mexico and Morocco, which only strengthens the case for a repeat in Boston on Monday night.

Felix Nmecha has been one of Germany’s standout performers at the World Cup so far, and I’m keen to back the midfielder to register at least one shot on target against Paraguay on Monday night.

Nmecha scored Germany’s opening goal of the tournament against Curacao in a game in which he racked up 4 attempts, 3 of which hit the target. That willingness to pull the trigger was also evident in the matches that followed against Ivory Coast and Ecuador, with the Borussia Dortmund man registering multiple efforts in both of those fixtures.

There is further encouragement to be found in his shot output before the World Cup. Nmecha worked the opposition goalkeeper in each of Germany’s final two friendlies before the tournament and also hit the target in both of his last two World Cup qualifying appearances.

Given the amount of possession Germany are expected to enjoy against a Paraguay side likely to spend long spells defending, I think Nmecha looks well placed to test the goalkeeper at least once.

When you think of Joshua Kimmich, you think of a midfielder that sits as the base, dictates the tempo, and is incredibly calm on the ball. He may not play quite the same role for Germany, however he still exhibits those traits on the ball, and I’m keen to back him to draw a couple of fouls against Paraguay.

Starting at right back for his nation, Kimmich drew five fouls across the group stage, with only Jamal Musiala drawing more. He’s averaged 1.96 fouls drawn P/90 at the World Cup so far, drawing two against Curacao, and three last time out against Ecuador.

That form isn’t exclusive to major tournaments however; Kimmich’s numbers in a Germany shirt are shockingly good, having drawn a foul in 16 of his last 17 competitive outings for his country, with two or more fouls drawn in seven of his last 12 competitive games.

Germany will see a lot of the ball here, and Kimmich will see plenty as a result when the Germans look to build out from the back. That’s a recipe for fouls drawn, particularly up against the aggressive Mauricio, who commits 2.00 fouls P/90.