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Germany vs Scotland
14th June
kick off 20:00 Germany (-3 corner handicap)
Germany have averaged 8.75 corners per game and conceded just 2.25 corners per game in their four friendlies in 2024.
Scotland managed just 4 corners in 3 games v Spain, Netherlands, and France, while Germany have conceded more than 2 corners just once in 4 games this calendar year.
Germany (-1 handicap) Scotland have won just 1 of their last 9 international games, an underwhelming 2-0 win over Gibraltar, and have lost by a combined score of 10-1 in 3 games v Spain, France, and the Netherlands.
Germany have won 3 of their 4 friendlies this season, beating France and the Netherlands during this run.
Jamal Musiala to have 1+ shots on target Musiala has taken 2+ shots in each of his 4 Germany starts in 2024, and has taken more shots than any other player for the national team this year.
He has had a shot on target in 3 of these 4 games, and averages 0.85 shots on target per 90 for Germany in 2024, just behind first-placed Kai Havertz who hits 0.90.
Scott McTominay to commit 1+ fouls McTominay has fouled in 6 of his 7 starts during the qualifying campaign, committing 1.10 fouls per 90.
He is up against Toni Kroos and Maximilian Mittelstadt, who have won 1.34 and 0.89 fouls per 90 for Germany in 2024 respectively.
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The Euros are finally upon us, and the tournament kicks off with a belter of a game as hosts Germany face Scotland at the Allianz Arena.
Germany have struggled at major tournaments in recent years, but new manager Julian Nagelsmann has broken from the past and put his own stamp on the squad. This has seen an upturn in form and has helped generate some enthusiasm heading into the tournament after two consecutive World Cup group stage exits for the three-time Euros winners.
Scotland, meanwhile, have never advanced past the group stages at a Euros but may well feel they could do so this year. Positive momentum from an exceptional start to their qualifying campaign has stalled somewhat with a series of underwhelming showings, however, it is their performance over the next two weeks that counts. Having shocked Spain en route to Germany, they will believe they can get something from this opening clash.
This game has so many intriguing betting angles to attack, and we’ve done the research so you don’t have to, picking out a range of options from the most popular betting markets to help you craft a winning Germany vs Scotland bet builder.
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Germany vs Scotland Predicted Lineups
Settled first-choice XI from Nagelsmann
No injury concerns mean Germany can continue with what has become a clear first-choice XI across their friendlies in 2024 to date. Manuel Neuer and Toni Kroos are the only survivors of the 2014 World Cup winning squad, with Thomas Muller expected to start on the bench. Kai Havertz starts over Niclas Fullkrug, while Ilkay Gundogan provides some experience with Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz on either side of the attacking three. Robert Andrich partners Toni Kroos, while Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rudiger, Jonathan Tah and Maximilian Mittelstadt provide an experienced backline, all aged over 27 and with several hundred top-flight games their belts.
Some worries for the Scots
Although not believed to be serious, Andy Robertson and Lawrence Shankland leaving training early was cause for concern after Lyndon Dykes was ruled out of the tournament following an injury in training last week. No Dykes means Lawrence Shankland will lead the line, with a midfield of John McGinn, Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour and Callum McGregor offering fluidity going forwards and the ability to press all over the pitch. Andy Robertson and Anthony Ralston will provide width, while Kieran Tierney, Grant Hanley and Jack Hendry are the likely back three tasked with keeping a fierce German attack at bay.
Germany vs Scotland Team Stats
Germany dominant on the corner front
The data below is taken from Germany’s last five competitive games, where they have impressed on numerous fronts. They have shown similar trends from their competitive stats across their four friendlies this season (including games against France and the Netherlands), where Germany have had 8.75 corners per game, vastly outpacing their opponents who have had just 2.25. Games against France and the Netherlands saw Germany take 11 corners and concede just four, and they hit 13 and 11 corners in their two most recent friendlies against Greece and Ukraine. Scotland meanwhile shipped six and seven corners in their two qualifiers against Spain. The corner handicap for the hosts is -3 and having beaten this line in three of their last four; and facing a Scotland side that mustered just four corners in three games against Spain, the Netherlands, and France, it looks a safe bet here. Germany can be backed with a -3 corner handicap at 1.91.
Scotland unlikely to get a result here
The stats from Scotland’s last five competitive fixtures shown below tell a slightly different story to that of their recent friendlies. Since their 2-0 win over Spain back in March 2023, Scotland have faced Spain, France and the Netherlands, losing by a combined score of 10-1 in these games, and being beaten by at least a two-goal margin in each of these three contests. They have a serious lack of goals in the squad and have been beaten by Northern Ireland and allowed Finland to come from two goals down to draw 2-2 in their last three games. Having won just one of their last nine games, an underwhelming 2-0 win over Gibraltar, backing Germany to win with a -1 goal handicap at 1.80 looks an obvious option to take here. Scotland’s form has been too weak and Germany’s too strong for any other result to look likely here.
Germany vs Scotland Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Jamal Musiala is a nice price here
Across the four games Germany have played in 2024, Musiala is third in terms of shots on target per 90, and top for shots per 90, having shot at least twice in each of these four. He has 0.85 shots on target per 90 and is taking 3.12 shots per 90, with no other Germany player coming close to the 11 shots taken by the Bayern Munich youngster this calendar year. Musiala has had at least one shot on target in three of his four starts for the national side in 2024 and can be backed to have at least one here at a very appealing 1.57.
Germany graphics to come from matchday 2…
McGinn offers nice value
Only McTominay averaged more shots on target per 90 during qualifying than Aston Villa captain John McGinn, his 0.65 was a solid effort from a player usually seen as more of a defensive midfielder. McGinn scored three times during the campaign, and hit a shot on target in five of his eight starts, while having at least one shot in seven of the eight, and two or more shots in five of those eight games. If Germany are concerned about McTominay’s goal threat, that could open up space for McGinn, and his efficient shooting mean just one chance may be required for him to cash this bet of one shot on target at 2.20.
Germany vs Scotland Goals and Assists Stats
Kai Havertz in great form in front of goal
After a superb second half of the season for Arsenal, Havertz is in great shape heading into this home Euros. The 25-year-old forward will be leading the line for his country and has been putting in strong showings in recent national team starts, scoring twice in his last four games and notching three shots on target, averaging out at a rate of 0.90 per 90. Few other players in the side can be said to be prolific in any sense of the word, but the three behind Havertz are all exceptional at chance creation, which should mean he has plenty of opportunities here. In all competitions, Havertz has five goals in his last seven starts for club and country and can be backed to score anytime here at 2.30.
Germany graphics to come from matchday 2…
McTominay a potential longshot option
Despite being Scotland’s top scorer in qualifying by some distance, Scott McTominay currently sits as high as 7.0 to score anytime in this one. The Man United man bagged seven goals and an assist in his eight qualifying games, securing braces against Cyprus and Spain. At this price, McTominay is certainly worth considering, with his late arrivals into the box likely to be Scotland’s most dangerous weapon in a side that has struggled to put the ball in the net of late. If you are looking for an option in the Scotland goal and assist markets, McTominay looks to be the most viable.
Germany Cards and Fouls Stats
Jonathan Tah a solid pick for the hosts
Though centre back partner Rudiger has committed more fouls per 90 for the national side in 2024, we make Tah the best option in the fouls markets for the hosts (with Rudiger committing 1.81 to Tah’s 1.37). The Leverkusen defender can be backed to commit a foul at 1.36, and his consistency is what appeals here, having fouled in each of his four Germany starts this calendar year, while Rudiger has done so in just two of his three. Tah will be up against Lawrence Shankland, who won fouls in 11 of his 17 starts for Hearts in 2024.
Germany graphics to come from matchday 2…
John McGinn looks the best option to win fouls
McGinn’s impressive 2.47 fouls won per 90 throughout qualifying puts him way ahead of anyone else in this metric. The Aston Villa captain is too short to be worth backing to win a single foul (1.13), but having won two or more fouls in six of his eight starts throughout the qualifying campaign, backing him to be fouled twice or more at 1.73 looks a solid bet. He is up against Robert Andrich and Toni Kroos, who have committed the first and third-most fouls per 90 for Germany in 2024, at 2.20 and 1.67 respectively, so there is every chance McGinn can hit this line here.
Scotland Cards and Fouls Stats
Scott McTominay a nice option for fouls
McTominay committed the third-most fouls in Euro qualifying, notching 1.10 per 90 throughout the campaign. The Man United midfielder committed a foul in seven of his eight starts during the group stage and played the full 90 minutes in all but one of those seven games, giving him plenty of time on the pitch to foul here. He will be up against Kroos, who has won 1.34 fouls per 90 for Germany in 2024, and Maximilian Mittelstadt, who has won 0.89 fouls per 90 for his national side this year. Kroos has won a foul in each of his three starts for his national side this year, so backing McTominay to commit a foul at 1.53 looks a solid bet.
Kai Havertz the best option to win a foul
Germany have conceded surprisingly few fouls in their friendlies in 2024, just 7.75 compared to the 11.25 they themselves have committed. Despite this, Kai Havertz has put together a consistent run of foul-winning, having done so in each of his last three starts for his country. The Arsenal striker has been fouled 1.20 times per 90 for Germany in 2024, and finds himself up against Scott McKenna, who committed the joint-fourth most fouls for Scotland during qualifying, at exactly 1.0 per 90. This all points to Havertz being a strong option to win a foul, and he can be backed to be fouled once or more at 1.30.
Germany graphics to come from matchday 2…
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