The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is gearing up to host one of the most important Derby della Madonnina matches in the fixture’s history. With bitter rivals Inter and AC Milan meeting to contest the second-leg of their Champions League semi-final.
Inter Milan hold a commanding two-goal lead after their first-leg heroics last week, though Europe’s most-illustrious club competition has a habit of producing dramatic plot twists and an early goal from the Rossoneri could change the dynamic of the entire tie.
Ahead of what should be a pulsating encounter, we’ve assembled a stats back for the game which comes equipped with bet builder tips and all manner of statistical angles to apply to the markets. Have a glance at my Stats Pack Guide if you need further assistance.
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Inter Milan vs AC Milan Confirmed Lineups
Inter field the same XI from the first leg
Defender Milan Skriniar is listed as Inter’s only confirmed major absentee at present, though Joaquin Correa picked up a knock at the weekend and is considered doubtful. Lautaro Martinez, Alessandro Bastoni, Matteo Darmian, Denzel Dumfries, Hakan Calganoglu, Nicolo Barella, Andre Onana and Edin Dzeko were all named on the bench against Sassuolo on Saturday, though all eight players should be restored to the XI.
Will Rafael Leao return for Milan?
AC Milan are sweating over the availability of key Portuguese attacker Rafael Leao, though there is a good chance that the explosive 23-year-old will make the cut. Rade Krunic is also carrying a knock, though he should shake it off in time to feature. Ismaël Bennacer will be missing from midfield, however. Alexis Saelemaekers could move to the right flank to accommodate Leao’s return.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Team Stats
Inter to clock up the corners?
Inter Milan made an explosive start to last week’s first leg and were two goals to the good after just 11 minutes. Simone Inzaghi’s side mustered 16 shots against Milan over the course of the contest with five of those hitting the mark – figures that were in line with their average output for the season (per 90 minutes).
Inter won the corner count (3-2) in last week’s opening salvo and that was the fourth time in four encounters with Milan this season that the Nerazzurri won more of those particular set pieces than their rivals. Inter are generously priced at 1.91 to earn more corners again today.
Take advantage of Milan’s extra aggression
AC Milan have been outgunned by Inter in the goals, xG, shots and shots on target in Serie A this season, and the difference in the teams’ firepower was evident again in the first leg.
Milan mustered just two attempts on target in the first part of the double-header, though they did collect more cards than their opponents (2-1), a feat they also achieved in the last league encounter between the rivals in February (5-2). Stefano Pioli’s troops could be a decent Inter Milan vs AC Milan bet builder option to win the most cards again at 1.91 later on.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Dzeko and Calhanoglu the ones to watch
Dynamic duo Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko have been Inter’s most threatening attackers this season, though the latter was more impactful last week, finding the mark with two of his three efforts in the first leg. The veteran Bosnian looks sharp enough to add to your Inter Milan bet builder coupon at 1.36 to lodge 1+ shots on target.
Inter also carried plenty of thrust from central midfield in the first leg, consistent shot market performers Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolas Barella both managed to register two shots each. Set-piece specialist Calhanoglu catches the eye again today at 1.67 in the 2+ shots realm.
Explosive Leao to provide threat
AC Milan’s blunt front four of Giroud, Saelemakers, Bennacer and Diaz couldn’t produce a single shot on target between them in last week’s 2-0 reverse to Inter Milan, though the addition of Rafel Leao to the Rossoneri’s frontline could make a massive difference.
When the Portuguese star – who has been clocking 3.50 shots per 90 – last started against Inter in January, he racked up five attempts and hit the target with two of his efforts. The 23-year-old could be a savvy addition to your AC Milan bet builder in the 1+ shots on target market today at 1.62. Fingers crossed he is fit enough to start.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Goals and Assists Stats
Dzeko and Martinez to punish Milan again?
Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko have both been thorns in Milan’s side this season, and though the former didn’t find the net in last week’s first-leg, the club’s leading marksman did score in both Derby della Madonnina fixtures in Serie A. The 25-year-old is on the books at 2.70 to net his third Champions League goal of the campaign this evening.
Dzeko meanwhile, who has bagged goals against Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana, Serie A and Champions League already this term looks backable again at 2.70 in the anytime goalscorer market.
ExperienceD Giroud the most viable option?
Milan have already played Inter three times since the turn of the year and they failed to find the net on each occasion and having looked so limp in the final third against their rivals last week, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see them toil in attack again this evening.
Rafael Leao is a bit of a wildcard and though he has match-turning ability, he has scored just once in ten Champions League appearances this season. 36-year-old Olivier Giroud has a much better strike rate in the competition (five goals in 11 apps) and the Frenchman is probably a more sensible pick at 3.60 to net anytime this evening.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Passing Stats
Acerbi ticks all the boxes
Inter lodged a slightly lower possession figure than Milan in last week’s first leg (42.7% to 57.3%), though the two early goals they buried did affect the pattern of the game and the balance of ball control. Simone Inzaghi’s side should have a more even split of it this evening.
Alessandro Bastoni has been topping the charts for Inter in terms of individual passes per 90 this season and the defender played more of them than any of his outfield teammates last week (44). However, the defender offers little value at 1.11 to beat 50 passes this evening. One of his partners at the back, Francesco Acerbi, is a better bet builder option in the same market at 1.57. The 35-year-old has played north of 50 passes in five of his last seven starts in all comps.
Look to Milan’s defenders for pass market candidates
Simon Kjaer is looking down on the rest in terms of passes played per 90 for Milan, though his defensive foil Fiyako Tomori played 76 passes to the Dane’s 37 last week, and Tomori is priced at 1.91 to top 70 again today.
At left-back Theo Hernandez (43.90 p/90) tends to see plenty of the ball and the French international racked up 68 passes in last week’s first leg. The influential 25-year-old could be a candidate for your Inter Milan vs AC Milan bet builder coupon in the 50+ passes domain this evening, where he is listed at 1.53.
Inter Milan Cards and Fouls Stats
THINK fouls instead of cards for Inter
Inter collected just two bookings in last week’s first leg, though their combatants did commit 16 fouls collectively and usual suspects Nicola Barella, Denzel Dumfries and Henrikh Mkhitaryan were all involved, sinning twice each.
All three players are likely to be in the thick of things again this evening, making Dumfries and Mkhitaryan interesting prospects at 1.53 and 2.20 in the 2+ fouls stakes again, while Barella could be a tasty docket padder at 1.33 to commit just one foul in the return fixture.
Krunic, Tonali and Leao to be on the receiving end
For midfield duo, Rade Krunic (1.09) and Sandro Tonali (1.06), picking up bumps and bruises comes with the territory and the schemers – who were fouled three times between them last week – could be on the receiving end again when they reacquaint themselves with Inter’s Barella and Mkhitaryan.
Elsewhere, Rafael Leao’s acceleration should pose a much stiffer challenge to Denzel Dumfries’ defensive acumen on the flank. Leao has been fouled a lofty 1.7 times per game in the Champions League this season.
Match-Ups to watch
Nicolo Barella vs Sandro Tonali
Denzel Dumfries vs Rafael Leao
Henrikh Mkhitaryan vs Rade Krunic
AC Milan Cards and Fouls Stats
Giroud can be an awkward customer
Olivier Giroud likes to use his physical prowess to bully opposing centre-halves, though he can be awkward in the challenge, something backed up by his high fouls per 90 figures (1.78), the Frenchman committed two fouls last week and he looks like a decent AC Milan bet builder option at 1.67 to give away at least two fouls again this evening.
We’ve already picked out Sandro Tonali’s tussle with fellow Italian international Nicolo Barella as a skirmish to watch closely, and fouls and cards look possible in both directions there. Fikayo Tomori isn’t listed among Milan’s most-potent foulers this term, though the Englishman struggled to get to grips with Lautaro Martinez in the first-leg, and he is priced at 1.44 to commit 1+ fouls today. Tomori committed two a week ago.
Martinez to draw more mistimed challenges
As the most imposing member of Inter’s back three, Francesco Acerbi could be tasked with getting close to Olivier Giroud this evening and the centre-half could draw fouls from his burly opponent. Nicolo Barella has been fouled 1.51 times per 90 overall this season and 1.3 times per game in the Champions League, and his averages should be maintained when he enters the midfield battle zone to face Sandro Tonali.
Lautaro Martinez, who has been fouled 11 times in his last seven Champions League runouts, should be enough of a nuisance to draw frustrated tackles from Milan’s defenders again today, including Fikayo Tomori.
Match-Ups to watch
Olivier Giroud vs Francesco Acerbi
Sandro Tonali vs Nicolas Barella
Fiyako Tomori vs Lautaro Martinez
Inter milan vs AC milan bet builder tips and pick of the pack
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Inter Milan vs AC Milan
16th May
kick off 20:00 Sandro Tonali 1+ shots
For each of these selections, they strolled in in the first leg, although that’s not the only reason I’ve picked them to return again.
Sandro Tonali managed 3 shots in the first leg, and I fully expect him to fire away from distance in the second.
His shots erratic to say the least, with 2 of his attempts from outside the box and missing their mark by some distance – one almost going out for a throw. But a shot is a shot.
He’s clearly put in some practice ahead of the return leg, having tested the keeper against Spezia in their loss on the weekend, and attempted 4 shots in total.
Given the state of play in this one, AC of course must score at least twice, and Tonali won’t be afraid to test Onana in goal.
In Tonali’s four matches against Inter this campaign he’s racked up 7 shots.
He’s now mustered 5 shots in 5 Champions League knockouts, and 9 in the tournament in total.
Nicolo Barella 1+ ShotsIf you were on my bet builder last week, you’ll have seen my other Inter midfield strike candidate Hakan Calhanoglu return his 2 shots, but this week I think Nicolo Barella screams value.
In fact, each of the 3 starting midfielders for Inter racked up 2 or more shots. Barella managed 2.
He averages 1.14 shots p/90 in the league, but his Champions League stats are so much more impressive.
Not only has he scored 3 goals, he’s managed 13 shots in the knockouts alone.
That’s 2.60 shots per game. 2 so far vs Milan, 4 vs Benfica, and 7 vs Porto. He steps up in this competition.
Matteo Darmian 1+ foulsNow onto the fouls, and boy were there a lot of them in the first leg. 30 of them in total, with 16 for Inter and 14 for AC.
In the meeting between the two sides before that, there were 38 in the Supercoppa Italiana final.
A man that racked up 2 in the first leg was Matteo Darmian. If we look at Champions League knockouts this season that’s now 7 fouls in 5.
This was as a result of being matched up against Alexis Saelemaekers, who drew 3 fouls in that game. He draws 1.42 fouls on average p/90 in the league this season.
If Saelemaekers doesn’t start on the left, it’ll be because Rafa Leao has returned. A much trickier task to deal with and no doubt where Milan will want to focus their attacks on.
The Portuguese winger attempts 6.29 take-ons p/90 in the league and draws a foul a game on average.
Fikayo Tomori 1+ foulsI added this into last week’s bet builder, and it of course came in straight away, with Tomori managing 2 fouls and even earning himself a booking. So here’s last weeks research:
“Fikayo Tomori looks extremely overpriced for a player that has committed a foul in 15 of his last 20 games.
That includes a foul in both legs against Napoli in the semi-final.
His stats from the league take into account a more reserved start to the campaign, but 0.97 fouls p/90 is still encouraging.
His Champions League stats are even more promising, averaging 1.25 fouls p/90.
Last time he played against Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana, he committed 3 fouls.”
So taking that on board, he’s now managed at least 1 foul in 16 of his last 22 games, and 5 fouls in his last 2 against tonight’s opponents.
He’ll be tasked with dealing with Edin Dzeko and Denzel Dumfries on the overlap. They draw 1.23 and 1.60 fouls respectively per 90 minutes of Serie A action.
Dzeko and Dumfries were fouled a combined SEVEN times in the first leg.
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