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Inter Milan vs Arsenal
6th November
kick off 20:00 Inter Milan Double Chance Marcus Thuram To Have 1+ Shots On Target Bukayo Saka To Have 1+ Shots On Target Denzel Dumfries To Commit 2+ Fouls
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Leg 1: Inter Milan Double Chance
Arsenal’s poor form is clear for all to see, with the Gunners now winless in three straight Premier League games. They were beaten 2-0 away to Bournemouth, drew 2-2 with Liverpool and then lost again at the weekend as Newcastle beat them 1-0 at St James’ Park.
That Newcastle loss came despite their first-choice defensive unit being available for the first time in several weeks. A defence which was being hailed amongst the best in Europe suddenly looks incredibly shaky, and a team as talented as Inter will pose a serious challenge.
Inter have lost just once in all competitions this season, a 2-1 derby defeat to AC Milan back in September. They have kept five clean sheets in their last seven games in all competitions and are yet to concede a goal in the Champions League, shutting out Man City, Crvena Zvezda, and Young Boys.
They will keep it tight at the back, and with Arsenal scoring just three times in their last four games in the league and Champions League, Simone Inzaghi’s side could well maintain their clean sheet streak here, whilst having more than enough offensive firepower to grab a goal of their own.
Leg 2: Marcus Thuram To HAVE 1+ shOTS on tARGET
Whilst Martinez is the flashier of this strike pairing, Thuram is the more ruthless, notching a team-high seven goals in Serie A, and grabbing a Champions League goal to sit alongside his league tally despite playing less than 90 minutes across Inter’s three games to date.
Aside from Denzel Dumfries, who has played less than 350 minutes in Serie A this season, Thuram has the best shot on target per 90 rate of any Inter player expected to start here. He takes 3.15 shots per 90, only marginally fewer than strike partner Lautaro Martinez’s 3.29. However, Thuram is much more efficient, with 53.6% of his shots finding the target, compared to just 37% for the Argentine.
That efficient strike rate sees Thuram averaging 1.69 shots on target per 90 in the league so far this season. Those numbers are even greater in European football this season, with Thuram averaging 5.56 shots per 90 and 2.22 shots on target per 90.
The son of ex-Juventus man Lillian Thuram has now had at least one shot on target in seven of his last eight starts for Inter, including their 0-0 draw away to Man City in the opening round of this competition.
Leg 3: bUKAYO sAKA tO have 1+ Shots ON target
Though we are backing Inter to be the better side here, a counter-attacking display would suit Bukayo Saka well, and we believe he represents great value for a shot on target here.
No Arsenal starter takes more shots per 90 in the Premier League than Saka’s 3.75, and the 23-year-old winger has steered a solid 44.4% of these shots on target, testing the keeper on average 1.67 times per 90. His shot on target rate in the Premier League is again the best in the starting lineup.
The same applies in the Champions League too, where Saka is the only player to average over 2.0 shots per 90 and 1.0 shots on target per 90 for the Gunners. He has had two shots, with one shot on target in both of his Champions League starts to date, against Atalanta and PSG.
Across his 11 Premier League and Champions League starts this season, Saka has hit the target in eight, only snapping a four-game shot on target streak at the weekend, in Arsenal’s disappointing 1-0 loss to Newcastle. We expect some kind of response from the Gunners, and as per usual, Saka will be their main threat going forward.
lEG 4: Denzel Dumfries to commit 2+ Fouls
Denzel Dumfries has been in and out of Simone Inzaghi’s starting XI throughout the 2024/25 season but looks set to make a third consecutive Champions League start here.
The Netherlands international is a handful at right wing-back, bombing forward to support the attack and always willing to smash into tackles when attempting to recover defensively, a trait that causes Dumfries to be whistled for plenty of fouls, and always be among the favourites to pick up a card.
He has started just five games for Inter in the Champions League and Serie A this season but has fouled at least twice in each of these five starts. Against Young Boys, his last Champions League start, he fouled five times, and against Juventus in Serie A, he fouled four times. No matter the strength of the opponent, Dumfries is always likely to hit this mark.
He has also fouled twice in two of his seven substitute appearances, despite only being on the field for 35 minutes and 23 minutes respectively. He will be up against Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli, who wins 0.98 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, and Declan Rice, who wins 0.80 fouls per 90.
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