Inter Milan surprised everyone by beating Benfica 2-0 away from home in Portugal last week. Their own domestic form is very patchy, but they produced a commanding display in the first leg and are now well and truly in the driving seat to make it through to the semi-finals. A big prize awaits facing their arch city rivals AC Milan. For the visitors Benfica, they know they must win by at least two clear goals to stand any chance. A massive improvement is needed but the pressure is now off, and they can swing from the hip with nothing to lose.
Can Benfica come back from the brink and overturn this 2-0 deficit? That remains to be seen. but, their state of this tie makes this a great game for a bet builder. I’ve once again sorted a number of stats , from shots all the way to corners, to help you pick your bets tonight. Check out my Stats Pack Guide whilst you’re at it to increase your chances of a bet builder winner.
predicted Lineups
Inter Milan centre back Milan Skriniar remains injured, and Stefan de Vrij is doubtful. Their back three is likely to be Bastoni, Acerbi and Darmian and they won’t switch from their 5-3-2 formation. In midfield, Marcelo Brozovic is set to keep his place despite the return to fitness of Turkish international Hakan Calhanoglu. Edin Dzeko should partner Lautaro Martinez upfront instead of the out of form Romelu Lukaku.
Benfica welcome back key centre back Nicolas Otamendi from suspension and he was badly missed last week. Julian Draxler and Alexander Bah remain on the injured list. Gilberto should start at right back again and Benfica lineup in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Team stats
Inter average 1.60 goals per game and 1.13 against. Their xG and xGA numbers are also impressive. They have recently been underachieving at both ends of the field. Simone Inzaghi’s men average 16.77 shots per game and just 10.47 against. They fire in 5.03 SOT in each fixture which is quite impressive.
Inter have significantly beaten their opponents on the corner count. They’ve racked up an average of 6.03 themselves, whilst conceding only 3.57 at the other end. Cards have been high in their games. Internazionale themselves average 1.87 per match whilst their opponents average 2.53.
Benfica average 2.43 goals per game and just 0.61 against. They also have impressive xG and xGA numbers. The one statistic that really stands out is just 1.89 SOT against per match. They have fired an average of 16.39 shots per match themselves and regularly pepper the opposition goal. Benfica were very disappointing, only having 2 SOT in the first leg.
Benfica average a whopping 8.18 corners in each fixture and concede just 3.21. They lost the corner count at home 4 to 6 last week though. Cards have been very high in their games at 2.04 for and 3.07 against. The first leg did however only contain three cards which was lower than expected.
Player shots and shots on target
Lautaro Martinez averages a massive 4.33 shots per 90 mins. He likes to try his luck and has a reasonable conversion rate of 1.63 SOT. He struggled to get involved in the first leg though, not firing a single attempt and getting subbed off early. Dzeko is another player to look at in this market when he’s on the field. It is noticeable that both wingbacks Dumfries and DiMarco average 1.43 and 1.91 shots per 90 mins respectively, even if neither are especially accurate.
Goncalo Ramos averages 3.73 shots per 90 mins with a decent 1.60 on target. He was another who struggled to get involved in the first leg though with only two shots and one on target. Silva averages 2.89 shots per 90 mins but isn’t overly accurate. Joao Mario is the designated penalty taker and averages 2.19 shots per 90 mins. Both Grimaldo, Gilberto and possibly Aursnes might try their luck at least once in this match as well.
Player goals and assists
Lautaro Martinez has scored 14 goals in addition to supplying 3 assists. He is a very streaky striker though and right now is in the middle of a cold run, failing to score in any of his last 10 games in all competitions. Dzeko has 7 goals and 3 assists. He is likely to start upfront. Lukaku only has 3 goals but missed a large chunk of the season due to injury. The leading assist provider is Barella (6), and he has also netted five goals. Left wing back DiMarco has three goals and two assists.
Lautaro Martinez has scored 14 goals in addition to supplying 3 assists. He is a very streaky striker though and right now is in the middle of a cold run, failing to score in any of his last 10 games in all competitions. Dzeko has 7 goals and 3 assists. He is likely to start upfront. Lukaku only has 3 goals but missed a large chunk of the season due to injury. The leading assist provider is Barella (6), and he has also netted five goals. Left wing back DiMarco has three goals and two assists.
Player passing
Inter average 56.10% possession although that is a figure which drops to 47% in the Champions League. They only had 43% of the ball on the road last week and it could be similar again considering they are defending a lead. Centre backs Bastoni and Acerbi are perhaps most likely to rack up any passing numbers, but this might be a night where Inter don’t get that much possession. Brozovic led Inter in passing last week with 61.
Benfica average 64.7% possession domestically but that figure drops to 51.5% in the Champions League. They did rack up 57% of the ball last week though and may well dominate once more. Players such as Florentino Luis and Chiquinho could be worth looking at in the passing markets, but it was the centre backs Morato and Silva who had the most passes last week with 87 and 81 respectively.
Inter Milan cards and Fouls
Midfielder Marcelo Brozovic is the most likely card candidate for Inter. Brozovic likes to get stuck in on the big stage and will be up against the technical trickery of Rafa Silva here. Both Barella and Dumfries could also be contenders to go into the book and average 1.12 and 1.35 fouls per 90 mins each respectively.
Benfica draw a lot of fouls from their opponents. They are a strong technical side with plenty of agility and trickery. Attacking midfielder Rafa Silva dribbles a massive 5.72 times per 90 mins, and winger Joao Mario is another who has a high dribbling rate. Goncalo Ramos is set to start upfront and gets fouled on average nearly twice per 90 mins. He is a big matchup problem for the Inter defenders with perhaps Acerbi being tasked to deal with him. Rafa Silva was fouled three times in the first leg and is clearly a man Inter target to ‘soften up’.
Match-ups to watch:
Marcelo Brozovic vs Rafa Silva
Denzel Dumfries vs Alex Grimaldo
Francesco Acerbi vs Goncalo Ramos
Benfica cards and fouls
Centre back Nicolas Otamendi returns from suspension, and this is excellent news for card backers. He has 10 cards and averages at least one foul per game. Rafa Silva has 6 cards, whilst Aursnes and Joao Mario have racked up a good number too. Benfica committed 11 fouls in the first leg, way above their usual in the domestic league. Goncalo Ramos is the type of forward who will press and give away cheap free kicks, averaging 1.99 fouls per 90 mins.
Striker Lautaro Martinez is going to be a tricky matchup for Porto. He has a high dribbling and fouled rate per 90 mins. The wingbacks DiMarco and Dumfries will regularly get forward causing havoc. Dumfries especially knows how to buy a few cheap free kicks. The big contender to cause problems centrally is playmaker Nicolo Barella, who is on average fouled 1.55 times per 90 mins. Both strikers Martinez and Dzeko were fouled twice each last week and are clever operators who know how to win free kicks.
Match-ups to watch:
Nicolas Otamendi vs Lautaro Martinez
Rafa Silva vs Nicolo Barella
Alex Grimaldo vs Denzel Dumfries
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
I’m expecting this to be filled with action given it’s all to play for in the second leg – an absolute dream for bet builders. So here’s some of my bet builder value selections that you can add to your bet builder below.
Inter Milan vs Benfica
19th April
kick off 20:00 Over 3.5 Cards
Referee Carlos del Cerro Grande averages 4.75 cards in the Champions League.
There were 3 cards in the first leg, but with it being a secon d leg it should get feistier.
Inter Milan games 4.40 cards in Serie A.
Benfica games average 5.11 cards in Liga Portugal.
Goncalo Ramos to have 1+ shot on targetGoncalo Ramos averages 1.60 shots on target and 3.73 shots p/90 domestically.
He managed 1 shot on target from 2 shots in the first leg.
Benfica will need to come out of the blocks to claw back the 2-goal deficit.
Florentino Luis to commit 1+ foulsFlorentino committed 2 fouls in 64 minutes of play in the first leg.
He commits 1.43 p/90 in the league, and has received 5 bookings.
Up against Nicolo Barella in the midfield who draws 1.55 fouls p/90.
Nicolas Otamendi to commit 1+ foulsOtamendi was suspended for the first leg after picking up 3 cards in the tournament.
He’ll take the place of either Antonio Silva or Morato.
The former was booked after committing two fouls.
That’s because he has the responsibility of dealing with Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez who draw 1.30 and 2.24 fouls p/90.
I especially like the duel between Otamendi and Martinez.
Otamendi has received 10 bookings in the league this season, committing 1.05 fouls p/90.
Marcelo Brozovic to commit 1+ foulsBrozovic committed 2 fouls in the first leg, and of course was booked.
He’s received a club-high 7 cards in the league despite limited minutes due to injury.
He commits 1.43 fouls p/90 in Serie A.
Up against Rafa Silva who draws 1.94 fouls p/90 and attempts 5.72 take-ons.
