Fierce local rivals Inter Milan and AC Milan clash in the Derby della Madonnina at San Siro this evening, where the Nerazzurri will be itching to deepen their antagonist’s crisis by securing a second victory over their neighbours since the New Year.
By under pressure boss Stefano Pioli’s own admission, Milan are in dire straits following a series of heavy defeats and another limp display on derby day against Inter could be the final nail in the 57-year-old’s coffin.
Below, you can find my stats pack for this evening’s Milan derby, which contains a bet builder bonanza of info to help you fill out those coupons with more confidence. As always, refer to my Stats Pack Guide if you need more assistance.
Predicted Lineups
Midfielder Marcelo Brozovic and experienced keeper Samir Handanovic are currently sidelined for Inter, though personnel issues for manager Simone Inzaghi are few and far between elsewhere.
Inter like to set-up with a back three, with wingbacks pushing on, and strung out across their midfield should be a creative trio of Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. All three schemers performed well went Inter beat Milan 3-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana on January 18th.
Mike Maignan, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alessandro Florenzi and Fikayo Tomori are all in the treatment room for AC Milan and they were joined there by key midfielder Ismael Bennacer during the week.
Several reports in Italy have suggested that Stefano Pioli will switch things up tactically today, with rumours indicating a 4-3-3 formation could be in the works instead of his usual 4-2-3-1 blueprint.
Team Stats
Only Napoli have been more prolific in front of goal in Serie A than Inter this season, while Simone Inzaghi’s troops also rank second behind the runaway leaders for xG per 90.
Defensively, Inter have also been only the division’s most robust outfits, with only two clubs posting better xG against figures so far. Inter have collected fewer cards than AC Milan in Serie A this term, though they did pick up three bookings to their rival’s two in last month’s Supercoppa Italiana.
AC Milan’s underlying stats across the course of the campaign match up well against Inter’s, though the Rossoneri’s standards have slipped to alarmingly low levels of late, and their run of four losses in five assignments featured a string of heavy defeats.
Up until the New Year, Milan’s defensive numbers sparkled, however, they were torn to shreds in successive tests by Inter (0-3), Lazio (0-4) and even mid-table Sassuolo (2-5) which suggests all is not right in their camp.
As you might expect, frustrations have started to boil over and Milan picked up a whopping seven cards in their last match against Sassuolo. They are priced at 4/6 to amass over 2.5 cards this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko have been forming a decent double act in Romelu Lukaku’s absence, and that pair racked up six attempts between them when Inter beat Milan 3-0 in January.
Interestingly, Dzeko has faced Milan twice this season and on each occasion, he managed to register two accurate attempts on goal. The veteran Bosnia and Herzegovina international is priced at 4/5 to clock at least two shots on target again this evening.
AC Milan have been floundering in the final third in recent weeks, however, the ever-dependable Olivier Giroud has been kept his own standards high. The 36-year-old has hit seven shots on target in his last six appearances and Giroud is available at 5/2 to test Inter stopper Andre Onana with at least two strikers later on.
Portuguese winger Rafael Leao also catches the eye in the same market. The dynamic wide attacker had two attempts on target and five shots overall against Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana last month. Leao is nicely priced at 8/13 to have just one accurate effort today.
Player Goals and Assists
Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko both rattled the net when Inter counter-attacked their way to glory against Milan in the Super Cup last month and both centre-forwards have a decent strike rate in Serie A this season.
World Cup winner Martinez has been something of a derby darling for Inter however, and the Argentinean international has scored six times against AC Milan since March 2019. Martinez can be added to your coupon at 17/10 to net anytime again today.
When AC Milan beat Inter 3-2 in the reverse league meeting between the clubs in September, Rafael Leao chipped in with two crucial goals either side of an Olivier Giroud effort, and the Portuguese winger leads the way for total goal contributions for the Rossoneri in 2022/23.
Leao looks decent value at 17/10 to either score or assist later today, while French fox-in-the-box Giroud, who has scored three times in the last five derbies, is 5/2 to get his name in lights at San Siro again.
Player passes
Inter needed just 34.6% possession to beat AC Milan 3-0 last month and with that success providing the template, Head Coach Simone Inzaghi is almost certain to lean heavily on a counter-punching strategy again this evening.
Defender Alessandro Bastoni played the most passes for Inter in that contest with a measly 33, which offers an insight into what we should expect in today’s tussle. Value in the market is just too hard to find for Inter’s options here, so keep your hand in your pocket.
With Ismael Bennacer and Fikayo Tomori injured, two of Milan’s most potent passers are out of the picture, though the vastly-experienced Simon Kjaer looks like an interesting prospect.
33-year-old Kjaer played 53 passes against Inter in January, despite playing just 64 minutes of the game and the Dane should be able to inch his way past the 70 passes mark with a full fixture under his belt.
Inter Milan Cards
Tempers are expected to flare in this evening’s derby and there appears to be plenty of low-hanging fruit to pick from in the card market on both sides of the dividing line.
Nicolo Barella was one of three Inter players cautioned in last month’s Supercoppa Italiana, as was his midfield comrade Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Both Barella (13/10) and Çalhanoğlu (13/5) – who has committed the second-most fouls at Inter this term – both look like strong card candidates again here.
Elsewhere, the likes of Denzel Dumfries, Matteo Darmian and Milan Skriniar (depending on which two start) should have their work cut out while marking the quicksilver Rafael Leao down Inter’s right flank. Skriniar has 6 while Dumfries has 3 bookings already this season.
Brahim Diaz has the keys to unlock most defences, though opponents often try to clobber the creativity out of the Spaniard, and Nicolo Barella will be the one swinging the cudgel today.
Similarly, tempo-setter Sandro Tonali should have plenty of challenges from Hakan Çalhanoğlu to fend off, while Rafael Leao’s searing pace should ensure that Dumfries has to work overtime.
Match-Ups to watch
Nicolo Barella vs Brahim Diaz
Milan Skriniar vs Rafael Leao
Hakan Çalhanoğlu vs Sandro Tonali
AC Milan Cards
Simon Kjaer (13/8) is expected to step into the breach this evening in place of injured centre-half Fikayo Tomori, though the 33-year-old has started just six Serie A matches this term and he was booked on his last appearance at Lazio.
At left back, Theo Hernandez (7/5) is fond of landing crunching tackles on his opponents, as evidenced by his haul of five yellow cards in 17 Serie A runouts.
Sandro Tonali is better known for raking passes than raking shins, though he was booked against Inter last month for his sixth card of the campaign, and he will be happy to put his foot in against the same side later.
Lautaro Martinez ranks high for nuisance factor and the buzzing attacker will be eager to make life as awkward as possible for veteran Milan defender Simon Kjaer.
Denzel Dumfries is often more comfortable pushing forward than he is defending, and when he isn’t trying to shackle Rafael Leao, he will be doing his utmost to leave Theo Hernandez in his wake at the opposite end.
Midfielder Tommaso Pobega (15/8) could be worth watching in Ismael Bennacer’s absence. Pobega ranks second at Milan for total fouls committed this season (24) despite starting just six times in Serie A since August. He is as combative as they come and he should rile up several of his opponents in the engine room later today.
Match-Ups to watch
Sandro Tonali vs Nicolo Barella
Theo Hernandez vs Denzel Dumfries/Matteo Darmian
Simon Kjaer vs Lautaro Martinez
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
The betting markets for this game scream value, and I can’t help but think they’ve underestimated Inter’s strength and Milan’s weakness. Here’s four bet builder selections I liked the look of at a tasty 9/1.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan
5th February
kick off 19:45 Inter Milan to win
Inter, players and fans alike, will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing bitter rivals AC Milan amid their painful slump.
Milan are on a run of six competitive matches without a win, and they go into Sunday’s derby having conceded an embarrassing 9 goals across their last couple of matches in Serie A. Losing 4-0 in Rome against Lazio, before being thrashed 5-2 at home to Sassuolo last weekend.
Inter need a win here to keep up with league-leaders Napoli who are already 13 points clear at the top of Serie A, a lead that could be extended by the time the Milan derby comes around as Napoli are big favourites at Spezia on Sunday morning.
The two Milan clubs met just last month as Inter ran out 3-0 winners in the Supercoppa Italiana, a match which took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Inter will be even more confident on home soil as Napoli are the only Serie A side who’ve collected more points than them at home.
Milan manager Stefano Pioli is under huge pressure. Losing to Inter could leave them 18 points behind the leaders and a loss would be three successive league defeats for the first time since September 2019.
Expect Inter to make a fast start and take it to them. The stats say you want to get at Milan early because only Salernitana, Cremonese and Sampdoria have conceded more Serie A goals before the half-time interval.
Over 2.5 GoalsThe price for goals in this game looks very attractive.
Why? It’s simple. The two Milan clubs are the best two sides for goals in Serie A. Inter and AC Milan have the exact same goals average at 3.30 per game, outperforming the formidable Napoli.
Over 2.5 goals is the shout here. A selection that has won in 70% of Inter’s league matches and a large 75% of Milan’s.
The fact that AC Milan can’t defend is another good reason for having an expectation for goals.
They conceded five goals from Sassuolo’s seven shots on target last time out, a side who’d been struggling to find the back of the net. What happens when you throw Martinez, Dzeko and Lukaku into the mix?
The Milan derby has a great track record for goals in recent history. Eight out of the last ten meetings between Inter and AC saw over 2.5 goals scored.
Lautaro MArtinez to have 2 or more shots on targetWell above evens for a couple of shots on goal from Lautaro Martinez appears to be a good value selection.
Martinez enjoys playing against Milan as he’s experienced beating them six times and he’s also scored against them six times. He’s had seven shots across the last two Milan derbies, and he’s averaging 1.42 shots on target per 90 minutes which makes him Inter’s most accurate player.
AC Milan over 2.5 cardsAC Milan have the 5th worst disciplinary record in Serie A which has been a complete 180 on last season where they were one of the cleaner sides as they went on the win the Scudetto.
So far this season, they’ve picked up 50 yellow cards and a couple of reds which has them at an average of 2.60 cards received per game.
They lost the plot during their heavy defeat to Sassuolo last weekend and picked up seven yellow cards in that one. Frustration will only increase if they were to suffer another damaging defeat but this time at the hands of their rivals.
Davide Massa is the referee on Sunday, and no referee has shown more yellow cards than him in Serie A this season.
He’s averaging 4.97 cards per game this season and 5.89 across his career, which is exactly what you want to see.
