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Ipswich vs Liverpool
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Leg 1: Both Teams to Score
Ipswich saw both teams to score land in six of their last 11 games in the Championship last season, more than would be expected from a side that won 96 points on their way to promotion. The Tractor Boys kept only seven clean sheets from 46 league games in 2023/24 and should have a similarly hard time keeping teams out in the Premier League. Having scored in all but one of their games at Portman Road in 2024, they do look to have a good chance of finding the net here.
Liverpool are always favoured to score in a Premier League match, almost regardless of their opponents, but their defensive record last season was quite unimpressive, especially by their own high standards. They kept just 10 Premier League clean sheets, of which just four came away from home.
Liverpool saw both teams to score land in 13 of their last 16 Premier League games in the previous campaign, and Ipswich will certainly pose a threat. This will be their first Premier League fixture since 2002 and a raucous Portman Road crowd will be on hand to encourage their team forward.
Leg 2: Over 6.5 Liverpool corners
No side took more Premier League corners than Liverpool last season, with the Reds averaging 7.55 corners per game, for a total of 287 across the entire league campaign.
In their final 15 games of last season, Liverpool cleared this line 12 times, with 11 of those 12 games seeing the Reds hit at least eight corners, well over the line we require for this bet. They had 10 or more corners in seven of their final 15 games and look well placed to rack up a large total at Portman Road today.
Ipswich’s opponents did not clear this line too frequently last season, but that is not unexpected given their general dominance of most games, both in terms of possession and territory. They did, however, allow 5.13 corners per 90, much more than you would expect from a side that finished second in the division, with nine sides conceding fewer corners.
The Tractor Boys were unusual in that they shipped more corners at home than on the road, allowing at least four corners in all 23 league games at Portman Road, conceding six or more corners in 14 of those 23 matches.
Leg 3: Liverpool to commit 11+ fouls
Liverpool were surprisingly third in the fouls charts in the Premier League last season, committing 12.2 fouls per game, with only Wolves and Bournemouth conceding more. Though the manager has changed, a commitment to high pressing remains, and the Liverpool forward line and midfield is packed full of players who love to get stuck in.
The Reds committed at least 11 fouls in 14 of their 19 league matches in 2024 and failed to hit double figures just twice. They failed to hit this line of 11 fouls just twice away from home in the league in 2024, both times falling short by a single foul.
Ipswich, meanwhile, won at least 11 fouls in 10 of their last 18 Championship fixtures. They were fouled at least 12 times in five of their last eight home league games in 2023/24 and look a good bet to win a high number here too.
Kieran McKenna has his side very well-drilled, and playing out from the back is non-negotiable. Liverpool’s high press will be invited on as the Tractor Boys attempt to play through them, and this should allow the fouls to accumulate throughout the contest.
LEG 4: Ben Johnson to commit 1+ fouls
New signing Ben Johnson looks likely to come straight in on the right side of the Ipswich defence here. Johnson only made a handful of starts for West Ham last season yet even with restricted minutes averaged 0.50 fouls per 90.
An attacking Liverpool side makes for a very difficult debut for anyone and it is made even more daunting by the prospect of a matchup with Luis Diaz.
Diaz won the second-most fouls of any Liverpool player expected to start here, 1.44 per 90 in the Premier League last season, coming in just behind Alexis Mac Allister’s 1.63.
Diaz won seven fouls in his last five Premier League games for the Reds, and he won at least one foul in 10 of his last 17 league starts; of those 10 games in which he was fouled, the Colombia international winger won two or more fouls in six of them.
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