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Ireland vs England
7th September
kick off 18:00 Both Teams to Score – No Robbie Brady to commit 1+ fouls Over 1.5 England Cards Chiedozie Ogbene to have 2+ shots
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Leg 1: Both teams to score – No
It is no surprise that England come into this fixture as heavy favourites, even with a much-changed squad from the one which Gareth Southgate took to the Euros.
That may well work in Lee Carsley’s favour, with a highly motivated group of players keen to impress the new boss ensuring a higher level of intensity than you might expect from a Nations League game.
Aside from a soft penalty conceded against North Macedonia after qualification was already secured, only Ukraine and Italy scored against England during qualifying, the Three Lions notching four clean sheets from eight games. They also shut out two of their three group stage opponents at the Euros, Slovenia and Serbia, who are both tougher opponents than Ireland, on paper at least.
Ireland meanwhile scored seven goals against Gibraltar during qualifying but managed just two goals in their other six games, failing to score four times. Neither of these two goals came from open play, with one being a penalty, and the other from a corner.
Ireland could well nick a goal, but the most likely outcome here is an England clean sheet, so backing against both teams scoring at odds of 1.65 is well worth doing.
Leg 2: Robbie Brady to commit 1+ fouls
It looks like it could be a tough assignment for Preston full-back Robbie Brady here. He will be up against Bukayo Saka and will need to use all of his experience to keep a player nearly 10 years his junior at bay.
Brady already looked a strong choice for a foul even without considering his matchup, having fouled in three of his four friendly appearances since returning to the Ireland international fold in March. The 32-year-old fouled once in 52 and 61-minute appearances against Portugal and Hungary during Ireland’s last friendlies and is averaging 1.92 fouls per 90 for Preston so far this season.
He has fouled 1.09 times per 90 in the Championship over the last full season, 2023/24 and is up against Saka, who drew 1.86 fouls per 90 at the Euros, winning at least one foul in all seven of England’s games. The Arsenal winger also won a foul in six of his seven appearances in qualifying, where he averaged 2.22 fouls won per 90.
Put simply, it looks very unlikely that Brady will be able to stand up to Saka without fouling at least once here, even if he does not last the full 90 minutes.
Leg 3: Over 1.5 England cards
This is a game where cards look a strong option, and backing England could pay dividends. The visitors sit at 1.83 to have two or more cards in this game, and the data suggests that this is a worthwhile selection, especially at this price.
England picked up two or more cards in four of their last five competitive fixtures, including against the two weakest teams they faced during this run of games, Slovakia and Slovenia, seeing three bookings in each of these two matches.
It was a similar story in qualifying for the Euros for the Three Lions also, with five of their eight games seeing two or more cards dished out to Gareth Southgate’s men.
Ireland meanwhile have seen their opponents pick up two or more cards in six of their eight Euro 2024 qualifiers, with the Netherlands picking up three on their visit to Dublin, and France notching two when Ireland travelled to the Parc de Princes.
Referee Jose Martinez also adds to the appeal, having awarded 5.35 cards per game throughout his career. He is running above this rate so far this season too, averaging 6.0 bookings per game across three games in 2024/25.
Leg 4: Chiedozie Ogbene to have 2+ shots
Ireland have been regularly outclassed in most of their recent internationals, but their overall shot tallies have been surprisingly high, even when you exclude the obvious outliers against Gibraltar where they had 27 and 32 shots.
Against France and the Netherlands at home they had nine and 11 shots, and a key contributor to this has been Chiedozie Ogbene, playing further forward for his country than the wing-back role he was often seen in for Luton last season.
Ogbene notched two or more shots in three of his last four starts in the Euros qualifiers, only failing to do so when deployed as a defensive midfielder against Greece. He is expected to start on the right here, which bodes well for this selection. He had three shots away to France, and two at home against the Netherlands, matching that tally in his last start, in a March friendly against Belgium.
There are caveats with this being the first game under new manager Heimir Hallgrimsson, but if Ogbene plays on the right flank, as a winger or right midfielder, he has every chance of hitting this mark here. At this price, it looks like a strong option despite the uncertainty.
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Ireland vs England Predicted Lineups
Ireland vs England Team Stats
Ireland vs England shots and shots on target stats
Ireland vs England goals and assists stats
Ireland CARDS AND FOULS stats
England cards and fouls stats
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