Juventus vs Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips, Stats, best Bets, predictions

I find the prices in this game quite interesting. Juve and Inter are the same price for a win, but a deeper look into the markets would suggest that the bookies are giving Juventus a slight edge here.

There’s value in this game from an Inter perspective as a result, and I can’t look past Marcus Thuram for a shot on target. Five Juve players are a shorter price, as is partner in crime Lautaro Martinez, but no player between the two squads has more shots on target to their name this season.

Thuram has hit the target three times in his two league outings thus far, and that’s from seven shots total. He’s proving a real handful once again, and he’s looked Inter’s most lethal weapon. Let’s not forget, Thuram averaged 1.06 shots on target P/90 last season, and saw this selection in his only start against Juventus in the 2024/25 campaign.

Now, Juve have barely been tested so far this season in games against Genoa and Parma, but this is an obvious step up in quality with regards to the opposition. Inter amassed nine shots on target over two meetings with Juve last season, and you’d expect them to be able to drum up similar numbers given that they still have a side brimming with quality.

Thuram is the value angle for me here; Martinez looks a little lost at the moment, so expect the Frenchman to take on the burden.

There aren’t too many better centre backs than Alessandro Bastoni. Calm on the ball, good in the air, a solid one-on-one defender, but he isn’t unflappable. Bastoni has a foul or two in him every time he takes to the pitch, and I don’t think that changes here.

Inter have been ridiculously aggressive in the press and in the tackle so far this season, and to see a side usually so dominant averaging 15.50 fouls per game in the league is a shock. The wide centre backs in their shape are huge contributors, with Bisseck exposed by Dumfries forays forward on the right, and Bastoni having similar issues with Dimarco on the left.

He’s committed three fouls so far this season, one or more landing in both of his Serie A outings, and he comes into this having committed fouls against both Estonia and Israel whilst on International duty. In fact, this selection has landed in 10 of Bastoni’s last 11 starts for club country; he’s incredibly consistent, and he’ll come under heaps of pressure against a very efficient Juventus side.

I don’t think it matters who Juve operate with here, they can all cause problems. Jonathan David is quick and elusive, and has drawn at least 1.27 fouls P/90 in each of the last five seasons whilst at Lille. Dusan Vlahovic provides a more direct and physical threat, whilst Nico Gonzalez’s 2.06 fouls P/90 in 2024/25 will be a threat to consider from the bench.

Juventus will push for this in front of a home crowd, Bastoni will have to be on his toes.

Juventus really have a star on their books here. Last season really was a breakout campaign for Kenan Yildiz, and the Turkish youngster has all the ability he needs to turn the tides of a game like this on his own.

Yildiz has incredibly quick feet, and will look to take on his man at every given opportunity. He’s already drawn five fouls this season, more than any other player in the Juventus squad, and he’s drawn two or more fouls in both of his league outings thus far.

This is a player that drew 1.80 fouls P/90 last season. Now a year more experienced, and more accustomed to the game at this level, I can only see that number increasing. Yildiz drew two or more fouls on 16 occasions last season, and he’s only going to improve from here.

The real kicker for me here is that Yildiz is likely to be up against Denzel Dumfries. The Dutchman has committed just the two fouls in two league games this season, but he committed the most fouls in the Inter squad last term, averaging 2.49 P/90. He’ll be backed up by right-sided centre back Yan Bisseck, who has four fouls to his name this season.

It’s a duo that will attempt to impose themselves on Yildiz, but Juve’s youngster could well come out on top.

I find it a real surprise to see Juve the shorter price in the corner market. Naturally the two sides match up quite well in this regard, and both sides will get corners, but Inter’s early season form is absurd, and their numbers need to be noted.

Inter have averaged 9.50 corners per game this season thus far, and they’ve hit at least six corners in both of those outings. Last season, over a much longer period, they averaged 5.82 corners per game, with four or more landing in 74% of their league fixtures.

But why are Inter so proficient in this area? For me, their shape lends itself to corners. Dimarco and Dumfries allow the side to hold ridiculous width; the pair will maraud forward, and look to get in behind and get crosses into the box at every opportunity. Those scenarios naturally lead to corners, and it bodes well against a Juventus side that play a similar shape and will leave spaces down the flanks.

That has been the tale of the tape for Juventus this season. Weaker sides in Genoa and Parma have been able to expose them to an extent down the flanks, with Parma managing six corners in Turin, and Genoa hitting three corners two weeks ago. Inter pose much more of a threat, four corners certainly isn’t out of the question.