This Champions League Round of 16 clash features two sides whose domestic seasons have not gone to plan in the slightest. Lazio ultimately cruised through their Champions League group featuring Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord and Celtic, but in Serie A they have been well off the pace, now sitting in eighth, five points adrift of the Champions League spots. They have also struggled against Italy’s biggest sides in recent weeks, losing to both Inter and Atalanta, and managing only a 0-0 draw with a very poor Napoli side.
Bayern, meanwhile, arrive fresh from a 3-0 away defeat to title rivals Leverkusen to leave them five points off the pace, and in danger of failing to win the Bundesliga for the first time in 12 years. The Leverkusen defeat was a chastening experience for a Bayern side used to winning these big domestic clashes.
Both sides therefore have plenty of reason to think about putting all their eggs in the Champions League basket, and this should be an excellent tie as a result. Our Lazio v Bayern Munich bet builder tips are combined at the bottom of the page and justified throughout the piece.
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Lazio vs Bayern Munich Predicted Lineups
Just the one change for Lazio
Lazio’s 3-1 win at the weekend was a solid showing from Maurizio Sarri’s side and with no fresh injury concerns and only Davide Renzetti suspended, the team is not expected to change much. The only anticipated change for this one will see central midfielder Danilo Cataldi replaced by Matias Vecino. The front three should remain unchanged, with Felipe Anderson and Gustav Isaksen either side of Ciro Immobile.
Bayern to ring the changes
The biggest news for Bayern is the return of Joshua Kimmich, who is expected to replace Pavlovic in the midfield alongside Leon Goretzka. Eric Dier will drop to the bench and Thomas Muller will return, with Kim Min-jae and Dayot Upamecano starting at centre back.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Team Stats
Lazio get the shots up at Stadio Olimipico
Lazio have been strong at home this season, losing just twice in all competitions, though a generous fixture list is at least partially responsible for this record. One thing that cannot be disputed, however, is that they have consistently accumulated good shooting numbers throughout the season. In 16 home games this season, Lazio have had three or more shots on target in 11. Against a Bayern side that have proved vulnerable at the back, Lazio sitting at 1.25 for three or more shots on target looks a solid shorter odds option for your bet builder.
Bayern’s exceptional Last 16 record
Bayern Munich have made it through the Last 16 in each of the last four seasons, last failing to do so when they were beaten 3-1 on aggregate by Liverpool in 2018/19. In the four seasons since, they have played away from home in the first leg on all four occasions and have won that game three out of four times. Last time these two sides met, it was another Round of 16 Champions League clash in which Bayern dumped out Lazio 6-2 on aggregate, winning 4-1 away in Rome in the first leg. Available at 1.67 to win here, and needing a result after this weekend, Bayern look great value to win.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Luis Alberto racking up the shots lately
Lazio’s Spanish midfielder actually takes more shots per game than Ciro Immobile, notching 2.12 per game to Immobile’s 1.83. Alberto has made 24 starts this season in which he played more than 45 minutes, and he has had at least one shot in 21 of those. He has had two shots in 13 games already this season, and in his four starts since returning from injury, he has taken two or more shots in each game. In a game where clear-cut chances are likely to be hard to come by for Lazio, Alberto should have the freedom to shoot on sight, so backing him for two or more shots at 1.57 looks a solid play.
Leroy Sane undervalued by the bookies
The only man in the Bayern team coming close to Kane’s shots totals of 4.02 per game is Leroy Sane, the German takes an impressive 3.04 shots per game coming in from the right flank. Across his last eight games for Bayern, Sane has had shots on target in five, averaging 1.25 shots on target across this spell. Available at 1.62 for a shot on target here, this looks to be fantastic value. Bayern are set to dominate and Sane is expected to see plenty of the ball in this one.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Goals and Assists Stats
Immobile finally hitting form?
Ciro Immobile has won the Capocannoniere (top scorer award) in Serie A in three of the last six seasons, scoring 29, 36 and 29 again. However, this season he has been way off the pace, scoring just six times for Lazio. Fortunately for Lazio fans, it seems this may finally be turning around, as Immobile now has two goals in two games. If Lazio are to get anything here, Immobile will surely need to make it three goals in three games and he can be backed to do so at 3.50.
Harry Kane to get back on the scoresheet
It has been the quietest goalscoring period for Kane since he arrived in Germany in recent weeks, yet the Englishman has still bagged six goals in his last eight. The fact that this represents a downturn in form is a testament to just how many goals he was getting before the winter break in German football. Kane has scored in two of his last three Bayern starts and has four goals in six Champions League games so far. He can be backed to score anytime at 1.83, strong odds considering that Kane has so far scored in 19 of his 27 Bayern starts.
Lazio Cards and Fouls Stats
Watch out for Romagnoli
Besides Matias Vecino, Romagnoli commits more fouls per game than any other Lazio player, at 1.27 per game. Faced with Harry Kane, and Thomas Muller, both of whom draw more than a foul per game, Romagnoli will have his work cut out here. The Italian centre-back has committed a foul in six straight starts for Lazio, committing two or more fouls in both of his last two games. He can be backed to commit a foul at 1.44, which offers great value, or to commit two fouls at 2.63, a strong option for those seeking higher odds.
Musiala a master of winning fouls
Bayern’s Jamal Musiala tops the fouls won charts for his side, drawing 1.94 fouls per game. This number has shot up even more in recent weeks, with Musiala drawing 2.4 fouls per game across his last five Bundesliga starts, including five last time out against Leverkusen. Fouled three or more times in four of his last seven starts, Musiala can be backed to draw two or more fouls at 1.50.
Bayern Munich Cards and Fouls Stats
Leroy Sane surprisingly high on fouls charts
Of the Bayern players expected to feature here, Sane actually commits the second-most fouls, his 1.13 per game is just slightly fewer than the 1.47 committed by Jamal Musiala. With the centre back on Sane’s side, Gila, drawing 1.33 fouls per game, the Lazio man could easily tempt the German into a foul or two here. Sane has committed a foul in six of his last seven starts in the Bundesliga and can be backed for a foul here at odds of 1.36.
Decent value offered on Felipe Anderson
Lazio’s Brazilian winger may not have the pace he once did, but he still has plenty of trickery in his locker to beat his man. He draws 1.02 fouls per game and has drawn a foul in four of his last five starts for the Biancocelesti. Bayern’s right-back, Noussair Mazraoui, commits just under a foul per game at 0.93. With Anderson as high as 1.62 to be fouled here, it looks a very solid addition to any bet builder, especially when he has been fouled in 19 of his 27 starts this season.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Key Matchups
Alessio Romagnoli vs Harry Kane
Elseid Hysaj vs Leroy Sane
Adam Marusic vs Jamal Musiala
Felipe Anderson vs Noussair Mazraoui
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Bet Builders Tips and Picks of the Pack
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Lazio vs Bayern Munich
14th February
kick off 20:00 Bayern Munich to win
Bayern have won 3 of their last 4 away first leg ties at this stage of the Champions League.
Lazio have won just 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions, losing to Inter and Atalanta and drawing with Napoli.
Luis Alberto 2+ shotsAlberto has had 2+ shots in 13 of his 24 starts this season.
He has had 2+ shots in all 4 of his Lazio starts since coming back from injury last month.
Alessio Romagnoli 1+ foulsRomagnoli has committed a foul in 6 straight starts for Lazio.
He will be tasked with managing Harry Kane and Thomas Muller who draw 1.46 and 1.13 fouls per game respectively.
Felipe Anderson to be fouled 1+ timesHe’s drawn 1+ foul in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Matched up against Noussair Mazraoui, who commits 0.93 fouls per game.
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