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League One Top Scorer Odds

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You can also check out our League One outrights articles on promotion odds, top 6 and relegation.

The excitement is building as we enter the final fortnight before the EFL season kicks off and it is time to look at the juice in the League One outrights. The League One top scorer odds are always interesting viewing ahead of the campaign, giving a flavour of the bookmakers’ League One predictions and who may stand out across the season. Jonson Clarke-Harris is the favourite in the League One top scorer odds having won or shared the golden boot in each of his last two campaigns at the level.

However, the Jamaican has been transfer listed by Peterborough United and, with that uncertainty, a 5/1 price does not appeal. Reading and Wigan Athletic’s preparation to go again in the third tier has been far from ideal due to off-pitch issues, while Blackpool will look to bounce back under Neil Critchley who has returned for a second spell with the Tangerines.

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Dion Charles firmly on the radar

Dion Charles has been a breath of fresh air at Bolton Wanderers since arriving from Accrington Stanley in January 2022, and the livewire no. 9 has even become a key player for Northern Ireland in the last year. The Trotters lost out narrowly to Barnsley in the League One play-offs last season, but it was a campaign that continued their steady upward trajectory under Ian Evatt. The former centre back deploys one of the more possession-based styles of play in the division, the sort that can frustrate supporters when they struggle to break down a low block, but it is one that has Wanderers as one of the stronger attacking sides in the division.

Charles is first choice when fit despite competition for places and the 27-year-old bagged 17 league goals last term, starting 38 of 46 League One outings. That tally came at a slight underperformance from chances equating to 19.84 expected goals (xG), while Bolton scored 60 in total from 68.54 xG. With another season of continuity passing with Evatt’s demanding style of play, the squad are in a great position to reach new heights this term and launch a serious bid for automatic promotion.

The club will be attractive for high profile loanees in the latter stages of the window, having had a positive impact on the development of the likes of James Trafford, Conor Bradley, Dapo Afolayan and Shola Shoretire in recent years. With an upgraded chance creation department Charles should be aiming for a minimum of 20 league goals.

League One Top Scorer

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James Collins to roll back the years

Collins has endured a very disappointing last two seasons since leaving Luton Town for Cardiff City in the summer of 2021. The Irishman’s stock was at an ultimate high after reaching double figures in the Championship, but the move to South Wales did not go to plan and it only lasted a year. Collins was guilty of some uncharacteristic poor finishing last term, notching 11 league goals from 14.96 xG, potentially inflating his price in the League One outrights, but he should be a key man for the title favourites Derby County.

Paul Warne has three League One promotions on his CV already and with the exciting additions of Joe Ward and Kane Wilson already through the door, the quality of deliveries into the box is set to increase significantly, not to mention Conor Hourihane’s class for the level in central midfield. Collins only started 29 league games last season, but that was partly down to the excellent performances from David McGoldrick who has since departed to Notts County. Collins is the most likely to step into his shoes and 20/1 seems fair for a player with goalscoring pedigree in this league (56 goals in 154 appearances).

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Keep an eye on Bristol Rovers and John Marquis

John Marquis is a common name towards the top end of the League One top scorer odds but has lengthened in the last couple of years and is currently set at 40s. The third tier is a very open division this season, as is reflected in the League One outright odds, and the standard towards the top end will likely be lower than the last couple of seasons. In patches, Bristol Rovers looked like a side capable of pushing for the play-offs last term and the exciting addition of Jevani Brown should only enhance their attacking thrust.

The 31-year-old notched a quietly impressive nine goals in 18 league starts last term, having been in and out of the side partly due to injury in the middle chunk of the season. Joey Barton is a very attacking manager and the Gas can really kick on with an exciting front three of Brown, League One Player of the Season 2022/23 Aaron Collins and Marquis. Last season’s numbers were not a hot streak as he found the net nine times from 9.83 xG.

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An injury-free Jack Marriott could be right in the mix

If not for the injury issues that Marriott has faced in the last few years, the 28-year-old would likely still be a valued contributor at Championship level. Marriott bagged 15 times in all competitions last season, with 12 of those coming in League One, spending the first half of the campaign at Peterborough United before joining Fleetwood Town for an undisclosed fee in January. The most important thing was that he proved his fitness by starting the last 12 games on the bounce as he settled in under Scott Brown.

Marriott’s 12 league goals came from 13.45 xG and considering he scored a brace and a hat-trick in the last five games of last season, 33/1 is an eye-catching price, while there is not a standout golden boot candidate in the sides expected to chase promotion due to the uncertainty around Clarke-Harris’ future. Fleetwood are in a similar boat to Bristol Rovers, if everything clicks they could be surprise packages in the play-off conversation, with the additions of Danny Mayor and Ryan Broom set to improve creativity, they are ones to watch in the League One outright odds.

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League One top scorer odds honourable mentions

There are a few more names that look enticing at the prices but do not jump off the page as much as the above four in the League One top scorer odds.

Victor Adeboyejo

Bolton may be amongst the highest-scoring teams in the division this season and are rightfully amongst the favourites for automatic promotion. Charles will be first choice under Ian Evatt but he does often deploy a front two and Victor Adeboyejo, who scored 14 league goals last term, is more than capable of targeting 20. The 25-year-old has had some time to acclimatise to Evatt’s ways and is priced up at 25/1 compared to the 12s on Charles.

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Shayne Lavery

Blackpool seem a little underrated by the market at this stage and Shayne Lavery could be their main goal threat. The 24-year-old bagged five goals in the opening couple of months of the 2021/22 season for the Tangerines in the Championship under Critchley, before he encountered injury problems. The step down a level could be beneficial for his development and the Northern Irishman can be very dangerous playing on the shoulder of the last defender. Critchley regularly played two up top in his last spell at Bloomfield Road which could play into Lavery’s hands.

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Miles Leaburn

Leaburn managed 12 goals in 18 League One starts last season and looked mightily impressive in his first full season of senior football at Charlton Athletic. Naturally, the 19-year-old is on transfer lists in higher places than the third tier, but with that goalscoring ratio and the chances that the Addicks improve on their mid table finish last term to compete towards the play-offs, the well-built striker could be worth a punt at 40s.

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