Leeds play Liverpool in what could be a pulsating clash under the lights at Elland Road. With the Sky Monday Night Football cameras on show there is going to be a lot of attention on this fixture. Leeds are in desperate need of points as they attempt to battle relegation. Can they respond after losing heavily 1-5 at home to Palace last week? Liverpool may have to win all of their remaining fixtures if they are to finish in the top four so anything less than 3 points would be a failure for The Reds.
Using the data provided for goals to corners, shots to fouls, passes to cards, you can compile a bet builder on the game with confidence and stats to back your selections. Take a swipe through before you place anything, and if you’re wanting some assistance on using the pack just have a look at my Stats Pack Guide first.
There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Leeds lineup here. They got hammered 1-5 last weekend and there have been rumours of discontent in the dressing room. Patrick Bamford’s spot upfront could be under threat due to a potential knock but also poor form. Top scorer Rodrigo might feature. Right back Luke Ayling must surely be close to being dropped. Rasmus Kristensen could be given the nod there. Willy Gnonto and Liam Cooper might come in to freshen up the side too.
Jurgen Klopp will have some more options in attack where Luis Diaz should return to the match squad after missing nearly half the season. Allison picked up a knock but should start in goal. Centre back Ibrahima Konate is doubtful which means Joel Matip should feature. Exciting young midfielder Stefan Bajcetic is ruled out for the rest of the campaign.
Leeds average 1.30 goals per game and 1.80 against. There is a strong correlation with their xG and xGA metrics. United do fire in a fair number of shots (12.17) with 13.57 against. Corners have been really high in Leeds fixtures at 9.90 per game. Cards have also been on the high side at an average of 4.36 in each contest. Leeds games can get quite feisty, especially in a pressure cooker Monday night football atmosphere.
Liverpool average 1.72 goals for and 1.21 against per game. Despite a poor season The Reds have actually overachieved defensively considering that their xGA is 1.42. The Merseysiders average 15.66 shots per game and less than 10 at the other end. They have fired in 5.48 on target which is over a third of their attempts. Liverpool have racked up a massive 6.14 corners per game and only 3.62 against. Cards have been average in their fixtures at an average of 3.18.
Player shots and shots on target
Patrick Bamford averages 2.95 shots per 90 mins but he has a poor accuracy rate at around 30%. Both Luis Sinisterra and Jack Harrison have been in good form recently. They should be confident enough to try their luck a few times again here. Sinisterra especially has been really firing in several efforts of late. Willy Gnonto and Marc Roca both average over one shot per 90 mins but Gnonto especially perhaps doesn’t shoot as often as is perceived.
Darwin Nunez averages close to 5 shots per 90 mins and can usually be relied upon to fire in a few efforts. 2.07 have been on target which is not a bad return. There is a lot of competition in the Liverpool attack though now so there’s no guarantee he’ll last more than an hour. Mo Salah and Cody Gakpo are other obvious candidates to fire in shots here and Leeds can be vulnerable from set pieces so Virgil Van Dijk (0.98) could be worth looking at.
Player goals and assists
Jack Harrison has been in very good form recently. He has 4 goals and supplied 6 assists. Luis Sinisterra scored vs Forest and his injury plagued season has seen him net only 3 times, but he might be getting fit at just the right time for the Mighty Whites. Rodrigo is Leeds’ top scorer in the Premier League with 11 goals and could certainly feature here, maybe even from the start.
Mo Salah has not had his greatest year but still has 13 goals and 7 assists. Darwin Nunez has scored 8 goals although arguably should have netted many more. Andy Robertson gets to have an easy matchup, potentially vs Luke Ayling and could add to his 6 assists on the left hand side. Trent only has three assists in what has been a poor campaign for him.
Leeds average close to 50% possession but this might be a match where they take a back seat with the ball. They had 63% possession vs Forest but only 48% vs Palace. The likes of Marc Roca, Weston McKennie and whoever plays centre back could be considered for over 50 passes, but it will be unlikely vs Liverpool.
It is likely that the visitors will monopolise possession considering that they average close to 60% possession overall. The most reliable man in this department for passing is probably Virgil van Dijk (75.8 per 90 mins) considering he will more than likely last the whole match. Anyone else of significance is at risk of being pulled early, although Trent Alexander-Arnold (69.50) would be fancied to have at least 70 passes if he lasts 80 mins or more.
Leeds cards and fouls
The Yorkshire outfit have been quite a dirty team this season and racked up several cards. Centre backs Robin Koch and Pascal Struijk are no strangers at getting stuck in. Both fullbacks here Junior Firpo and either Ayling or Kristensen will be well worked by the Liverpool wide men, whilst in midfield Marc Roca is going to have to contend with Fabinho and Thago. Weston McKennie and Willy Gnonto have been known to lose their cool and put in some ill-timed challenges.
Darwin Nunez is a physical monster and is surprisingly only fouled 0.91 times per 90 mins, possibly because he’s so hard to bring down. Leeds have major problems at both full back positions with Firpo and either Ayling or Kristensen easy meat for the likes of Salah and Gakpo. Both have high dribbling rates and could cause all sorts of problems. If Thiago starts in midfield then his rate of being fouled at 1.89 times per 90 mins does stand out.
Matchups to watch
Junior Firpo vs Mo Salah
Kristensten or Ayling vs Darwin Nunez
Marc Roca vs Thiago
Liverpool cards and fouls
Fabinho stands out as being the dirtiest Liverpool player. He has picked up 8 cards and also has a foul average of 1.62 per 90 mins. If Jack Harrison plays as the central AMID then this is an obvious matchup. Both fullbacks will be tested by Leeds. Trent and Robertson average less than one foul per 90 mins but it would be a surprise if either managed to play a totally clean game vs these wingers. Another player worth keeping an eye on to pick up a cheap foul or two is Thiago.
Sinisterra and Jack Harrison are full of confidence and both have high dribbling rates. They are happy to take on their opponent’s man for man. They will provide a significant test to the Liverpool fullbacks. Willy Gnonto can be added into the mixer as well.
Referee Craig Pawson averages the 4th most yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season for any official who has refereed 10+ games. Leeds will hope he dishes out a few to the Liverpool players.
Matchups to watch
Fabinho vs Jack Harrison
Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Willy Gnonto
Andy Robertson vs Luis Sinisterra
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Having a look through the stats above there were a few selections at the bookies that drew my eye as value. I’ve added them to a bet builder below, but feel free to add and remove whichever selections you like the look of.
Leeds United vs Liverpool
Leeds games average 3.10 goals per game.
They have an xG of 2.90.
Over 2.5 goals has come in in Leeds’ last 5 games including 6 goals against Wolves and Palace.
Liverpool games average 2.93 goals per game.
They have an xG of 3.21.
Liverpool are fresh off the back of a 2-2 draw with Arsenal and 4-1 defeat to Man City.
Referee Craig Pawson averages the 4th most yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season for any official who has refereed 10+ games. He averages 4.06 per game.
Leeds must win to escape the heat of the relegation zone.
Liverpool must win to have any chance of European qualification.
Leeds games average 4.36 cards per game (2.33 for Leeds).
Liverpool games average 3.18 cards per game.
Luis Sinisterra averages 2.57 shots p/90.
He managed 4 shots in each of his last 2 outings vs Palace and Forest.
Fabinho commits 1.62 fouls p/90, and at the expense of 8 bookings this season.
He’s committed 7 fouls in his last 3 matches.
He committed 3 last time out against Leeds.
He’s up against Jack Harrison who attempts 3.91 take-ons p/90 and draws 1.37 fouls.
Patrick Bamford will also cause the Brazilian problems, drawing an additional 1.52 fouls p/90.
Most of Leeds’ fouls drawn are in the centre of the park, with Marc Roca adding to the foul count.