Leeds take on Man City in front of a capacity crowd at Elland Road. There is sure to be a raucous atmosphere as the home fans get behind clear underdogs Leeds. Man City can not afford to drop many more points as they chase Arsenal to try and retain the Premier League.
Below I’ve done the lowdown for goals, shots, corners, fouls, cards and passing in order to help you pick some winning value selections for your bet builders. I’ve even stuck my own picks of the pack at the bottom. You can also access my Stats Pack Guide to help you pick your own by clicking here.
Starting Lineups
Leeds will probably lineup in a 4-2-3-1 formation. They have a big problem in central midfield where key man and USA captain Tyler Adams is suspended. Adam Forshaw or Diego Llorente could come into the side as a replacement. Leeds still have issues at left back where Pascal Struijk continues to be played out of position due to the underperformance of Junior Firpo.
Man City will likely operate in a 4-3-3 system. Centre back Ruben Dias is ruled out for up to a month with a thigh injury, whilst attacker Julien Alvarez is unlikely to be available following his World Cup heroics with Argentina. Swiss defender Manuel Akanji will likely start at the back for Pep Guardiola’s men, with Bernardo Silva the most likely to fill in for Alvarez. Midfielder Kalvin Phillips might not even be in the squad after reports surfaced last week that he returned to Man City ‘overweight’ from the World Cup.
Team stats
Leeds average 1.57 goals per game and 1.86 goals against per match which correlates quite closely to their xG and xGA metrics. They are often involved in frantic end-to-end type matches and average 12.90 shots per game, but also concede 12.70 at the other end. Leeds have allowed nearly five shots on target from their opponent in each fixture which is quite a high figure.
Corner numbers are high in Leeds games at both ends of the field, 5.43 for and 5.13 against on average per match. Leeds’ discipline can sometimes be terrible but their average cards for is only 2.07 which is a more mediocre amount. Their opponents average 1.71 cards against per match, a number which can be accelerated in high profile and feisty games.
Man City average 2.86 goals per game which isn’t that much higher than their xG of 2.38. Their xGA per game is exactly 1.00. City average a massive 17.40 shots per match, of which exactly 6.00 have been on target. At the other end of the field their opponents have only fired in an average of 7.14 shots in each fixture.
The Citizens are corner magnets, obtaining 7.29 in each game but they don’t concede many (2.14). Their discipline is excellent, picking up just 0.93 cards per match. They have drawn 2.29 cards form their opponents on average per 90 mins. City will usually dominate the ball to a very high level which explains some of these statistics.
Player shots and shots on target
Patrick Bamford averages 3.33 shots per 90 mins, surprisingly at a 50% accuracy rate. The man who fires in the most shots for Leeds is Rodrigo with 3.88 per 90 mins. His SOT ratio is very poor though at just 1.33. His philosophy is more a scattergun approach and just hope something hits. Both Summerville and Sinisterra average over two shots per 90 mins but no other Leeds player averages more than 0.60.
Erling Haaland averages the most shots per 90 mins of any City player (4.26) and finds the target more than 50% of the time. The likes of Alvarez and Phill Foden both also have SOT rates of over 50%. Riad Mahrez is less accurate, only converting his 2.93 shots per 90 mins into 0.98 SOT. Kevin De Bruyne is known for scoring spectacular goals but is another who has not been particularly accurate this season, hitting just 0.95 SOT per 90 mins from 2.70 shots.
Player goals and assists
Rodrigo is the top Leeds scorer with nine goals. Youngster Crysencio Summerville rose to prominence just before the World Cup break and has netted four times. Jack Harrison is the top assist provider for the Whites with three, whilst USA international Brendan Aaronson has supplied two goals. Marc Roca is arguably Leeds’ best technical player but only has one goal and one assist.
Erling Haaland leads the Premier League Golden Boot race with 18 goals from 13 appearances. The Norwegian, who was born just a short distance from Elland Road and is a self-confessed Leeds fan will be out to put on a show after not being centre stage in recent weeks. He recently tweeted a caption which simply said ‘Viking mode activated’ so I think we can expect a strong performance from him here.
Haaland also has three assists this season, but Kevin De Bruyne leads City with this statistic, weighing in with 9 so far this season. Phil Foden has four assists and also scored 7 goals. Bernardo Silva is another City player who has a lot of assists this season (5) and netted twice. This is a machine of a team offensively with several components all capable of firing.
Player passing
Leeds are a mixed bag in terms of possession. They average 51% overall but are unlikely to have much of the ball in this contest. Both Pascal Struijk and Rasmus Kristensen who have been operating at full back or wingback this season average more than 54 passes each per 90 mins. Centre back Diego Llorente has passed the most out of any Leeds player, very close to the 60 mark per game. Llorente, who recently signed a new 3 year deal at the club can usually be relied upon to last the full 90 mins as well.
Man City average a massive 67% possession and totally monopolise the ball in most matches. They have four players who all average over 90 passes per 90 mins, although Ruben Dias won’t be featuring here due to injury. Kyle Walker racks up a massive 98.1 passes per 90 mins, with both Nathan Ake and Rodri also ranking very high with this metric. The danger with any Man City is the risk of getting pulled early due to the five substitute rule.
Leeds cards
USA international captain Tyler Adams has produced the most fouls per 90 mins on average for Leeds (1.92). He won’t play here due to suspension though. Both Rasmus Kristensen and the potentially injured Luis Sinisterra have also picked up four cards. No other Leeds player has an average foul count over 1.29 per 90 mins but centre back Robin Koch and midfielder Marc Roca are both worth watching and have each obtained a trio of cards this season.
It is no surprise to see Jack Grealish draw the most fouls per 90 mins of any Man City player (2.79). His trickery and elusiveness are a magnet for defenders to make mistakes. If he starts, or when he comes on as a substitute then Leeds fullbacks, especially Rasmus Kristensen will need to be careful. Phil Foden and João Cancelo are regular dribblers of the ball and will need to be watched closely.
In midfield Kevin De Bruyne is also a tough matchup for someone and is fouled on average 1.03 times per 90 mins. Haaland is only fouled 0.78 times per game, probably in part due to him being a very difficult match to actually foul in the first place!
Matchups to watch
Rasmus Kristensen vs Phil Foden
Robin Koch vs Erling Haaland
Marc Roca vs Kevin de Bruyne
Man City cards
Pep Guardiola’s men are a very clean team and have not obtained many cards this season. Fullback João Cancelo tops their charts with three cards, whilst Erling Haaland has bagged a couple. Both Rodri (1.44) and Akanji (1.03) have the highest average fouls per 90 mins out of any City players. Rodri could have his hands full with Rodrigo, whilst Jack Harrison will test out Akanji when he cuts in from the left.
Crysencio Summerville and Brendan Aaronson are the clear standouts in terms of Leeds fouls against. Aaronson also averages 4.09 dribbles per 90 mins and can be an elusive player who also rubs the opposition up the wrong way. Colombian winger Luis Sinisterra is currently an injury doubt but has a high dribbling average of 5.00 per 90 mins and could be difficult to face if he plays. Former Man City player Jack Harrison is also a player to watch and is on average fouled 1.54 times per 90 mins.
Matchups to watch:
Rodri vs Rodrigo
Manuel Akanji vs Jack Harrison
João Cancelo vs Brendan Aaronson
My Picks of the Stats Pack
I’ve scouted out a few selections using the stats that you can add to your bet builder or combined would come in at 7/1. Feel free to pick and change it, just remember to keep stakes sensible.
Leeds vs Man City
28th December
kick off 20:00 Erling Haaland to score anytime
Erling Haaland has scored 18 goals in 13 Premier League appaearances.
Man City have scored 2.86 goals a game, while Leeds have conceded 1.86.
Kevin De Bruyne to Assist anytimeKevin De Bruyne has 9 assists in 14 appearances.
Man City
and de Bruyne create quality chances with an xG of 2.38.
Man City Over 6.5 CornersMan City average 7.29 corners a game.
Leeds average 5.13 corners conceded per game.
Man City have an average of 67% possession
Rasmus Kristensen 1+ FoulRasmus Kristensen averages 1.29 fouls a game, and has 4 cards in 12.
Up against Phil Foden at the start, with Jack Grealish coming off the bench – they are fouled on average 1.19 and 2.79 times per 90.
They also attempt 2.57 and 3.93 dribbles per 90 minus.
