Leeds United play host to Crystal Palace at Elland Road in a match between two teams battling it out in the relegation dogfight. Both sides head into the game off the back of morale boosting victories vs Forest and Leicester respectively. 12th place beckons for whoever can bag the 3 points in West Yorkshire.
I’ve run down the stats from the two sides’ campaigns so far so you can get an idea of the top players for almost every bet builder market. That’ll help assist you in scouring for the best value selections. For some additional assistance, I also have my Stats Pack Guide on my website.
Predicted Lineups
Leeds claimed a convincing 2-1 come-from-behind win vs Forest on Tuesday night and it would make sense to keep a similar XI. There are some other options should Javi Gracia prefer to rotate the squad around a bit. Maybe Rodrigo could come in for Bamford and Kristensen for Ayling, but the Whites have momentum so it’s unlikely too much is going to change.
Roy Hodgson officially ruled out star winger Wilfried Zaha for Palace along with #1 keeper Vicente Guaita. It looks like Sam Johnstone will start in between the sticks with Jordan Ayew deputising for Zaha. Another possibility to come into the side could be attacker Jean-Philippe Mateta. It will be a tough call for Hodgson to make but Zaha is definitely a big loss.
Team Stats
Leeds claimed a convincing 2-1 come-from-behind win vs Forest on Tuesday night and it would make sense to keep a similar XI. There are some other options should Javi Gracia prefer to rotate the squad around a bit. Maybe Rodrigo could come in for Bamford and Kristensen for Ayling, but the Whites have momentum so it’s unlikely too much is going to change.
Roy Hodgson officially ruled out star winger Wilfried Zaha for Palace along with #1 keeper Vicente Guaita. It looks like Sam Johnstone will start in between the sticks with Jordan Ayew deputising for Zaha. Another possibility to come into the side could be attacker Jean-Philippe Mateta. It will be a tough call for Hodgson to make but Zaha is definitely a big loss.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Patrick Bamford averages exactly 3 shots per 90 mins but he has a poor accuracy rate at around 30%. Both Luis Sinisterra and Jack Harrison fired 4 shots vs Forest in midweek resulting in a goal each. They should be confident enough to try their luck a few times again here. The other Leeds player worth considering in the shots market is Brendan Aaronson who is desperate to get on the scoresheet again and is sometimes too over-enthusiastic.
Only two Palace players average more than 2 shots per 90 mins, Edouard and Eze. Both of them fired in 4 and 5 shots respectively last week vs Leicester. Jordan Ayew is not a known shooter at just 0.75 per 90 mins. Michael Olise will often be on set pieces so could be worth considering in this department. He averages 1.58 shots per 90 mins but just 0.32 on target.
Player Goals and Assists
Jack Harrison has been in very good form recently and this week signed a new contract with Leeds up to 2028. He has 4 goals and supplied 6 assists. Luis Sinisterra scored vs Forest and his injury plagued season has seen him net only 3 times, but he might be getting fit at just the right time for Leeds. Bamford is another who has had a terrible run of injuries but played a key part vs Forest. Rodrigo is Leeds’ top scorer in the Premier League with 11 goals but is currently projected to be benched here.
Wilfried Zaha is injured so the next highest scorer for Palace is Eze who has netted four times. He’s also chipped in with assists. Michael Olise leads the Eagles in that department with 5 and is known for his creative output. It has generally been a miserable attacking season for Crystal Palace though and their scoring charts make for bleak reading.
Player Passing
Leeds average close to 50% possession and are expected to monopolise more of the ball here. They had 63% possession vs Forest in midweek with Robin Koch and Weston McKennie racking up the most passes in that game with 64 and 61 respectively. McKennie is likely to play a key role and a lot of the game will run through him. The American international could certainly be considered in the passing markets along with the Leeds centre backs.
Palace only average 44% possession this season although did have 51% of the ball vs Leicester last week on Roy Hodgson’s return. Centre backs Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen each racked up 76 passes in that fixture so could be worth keeping an eye on here. However, it’s expected the away side might sit deeper and allow Leeds to control possession more.
Leeds Cards and Fouls
The Yorkshire outfit have been quite a dirty team this season and racked up several cards. Centre backs Robin Koch and Pascal Struijk are no strangers at getting stuck in. Both fullbacks here Junior Firpo and either Ayling or Kristensen will be well worked by the Palace wingers, whilst in midfield Marc Roca is going to have to contend with the likes of Eze. Luis Sinisterra is a pressing attacker who averages 1.60 fouls per 90 mins. Considering his relative lack of game time this season, for the Colombian to pick up 4 cards shows how dirty he can be.
The trio of Jordan Ayew, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are all foul magnets, aided by high dribbling rates. All of them are expected to start here and cause certainly cause some problems to the Leeds defence. It is perhaps a surprise why Jordan Ayew is fouled nearly 3 times per 90 mins. He is perhaps considered the least dangerous of all the Palace attackers but does possess good body strength and can be difficult to shake off.
Matchups to watch
Junior Firpo vs Michael Olise
Marc Roca vs Eberechi Eze
Rasmus Kristensen or Luke Ayling vs Jordan Ayew
Crystal Palace Cards and Fouls
Cheick Doucoure has amassed an unbelievable 11 cards this season and averages 1.40 fouls per 90 mins. He must be the hot candidate to go into the book at Elland Road. Both centre backs Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen are no strangers to fouls or cards either. Leeds have some wingers in good form so the Palace full backs will be in for a potentially torrid afternoon. Mitchell and Ward are worth watching for fouls against some highly elusive and skilful players. Both average over 1 foul per 90 mins and will find it difficult to avoid a caution.
Brendan Aaronson is the most fouled Leeds player at 2.03 times per 90 mins. He goes looking for free kicks and could pop up anywhere, but especially in the AMID central role. Sinisterra and Jack Harrison are full of confidence, and both have high dribbling rates, happy to take on their opponent’s man for man. Joel Ward at right back could get a double dosage of Sinisterra and then Gnonto off the bench which is an absolute nightmare.
Matchups to watch
Cheick Doucoure vs Brendan Aaronson
Joel Ward vs Luis Sinisterra
Tyrick Mitchell vs Jack Harrison
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Using the stats above, I couldn’t help but pick out a few bet builder selections for myself. Betfair also have a £2 free bet on the Premier League this weekend so if you haven’t used it already, you my want to add some of these selections to beef up your returns.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
9th April
kick off 14:00 Jack Harrison to have 2+ shots
Jack Harrison averages 1.39 shots p/90.
Although, he’s upped the pace recently hand has notched two shots in 3 of his last 4 appearances.
He’s managed at least 1 shot in all his last 18 games.
Harrison managed 4 shots vs Nottingham Forest in midweek.
Crystal Palace concede 12.90 shots per game, while Leeds create 12.21 shot-taking chances.
Luis Sinisterra to have 2+ shotsSinisterra also managed 4 shots against Forest in midweek, and will be confident to get on the goal sheet again, as did Harrison.
Sinisterra averages 2.27 shots p/90, well over what we need here.
Since his long-awaited return from injury, he has averages 2.61 shots p/90, and that includes a match against league leaders Arsenal.
He’ll be the man to rely on to turn around Leeds’ fortunes.
Over 3.5 CardsThis game is big in terms of taking either side to probable safety.
It catapults either side to 12th place.
The referee Simon Hooper averages just udner what we need at 3.14 cards per game, but these two teams are a different story.
Leeds games average 3.38 cards per game, while Palace games go even better at 2.51 cards per game.
But more interestingly, both sides tend to receive more cards than their opponents – with Leeds receiving 2.31 cards per game and Palace receive 2.48.
They both have midfield partnerships that are more than capable of some rash challenges – McKennie, Roca, Doucoure, Schlupp.
But also, they have attacking players that love to draw fouls – Ayew, Eze, Olise, Aaronson, Sinisterra.
Joel Wards to commit 1+ foulsSpeaking of drawing fouls, Joel Ward has the tricky task of dealing with Luis Sinisterra.
Ward averages 1.20 fouls p/90 and has committed 1 in his last 2 games.
The Colombian speedster is fouled 1.60 times p/90.
But his pacey dribbles (4.80 p/90) are what will be so tough for the right-back, and will be forced to bring him down on at least one occasion – he’s just no where near quick enough to keep up.
