Leeds and Leicester are both fighting for their lives near the foot of the Premier League table ahead of what promises to be a tense relegation six-pointer at Elland Road this evening.
Leicester (17th) moved to within a point of Leeds (16th) on Saturday when they snapped a nine-game winless run with a comeback victory at home to Wolves, while the Yorkshiremen’s plight worsened when they were beaten for the third time on the spin at Fulham the same day.
Ahead of the carnage, I’ve assembled a stats pack for today’s basement battle which includes everything you need to stuff your bet builder coupons with smart selections. As always, check out my Stats Pack Guide if you need some extra pointers.
Leeds are still without injured pair Tyler Adams and Stuart Dallas, while there slight concerns about the availability of Maximilian Wober and Liam Cooper. Both defenders could make the cut this evening, however.
Further forward, Luis Sinisterra and Patrick Bamford are both in line to start having made decent impacts off the bench in Leeds’s 2-1 loss to Fulham at the weekend. Weston McKennie should be joined in midfield by Spaniard Marc Roca again.
James Justin, Ryan Bertrand, Ricardo Pereira, Jannik Vestergaard and Jamie Vardy are all in the treatment room for Leicester at present, though Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Jonny Evans should all shake off minor ailments in time to feature.
Kelechi Iheanacho should keep his place up front with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall likely to occupy the number ten position behind him. Boubakary Soumare could anchor the Foxes’ midfield alongside Wilfred Ndidi. Daniel Iverson is in line to start for the seventh time in the Premier League between the sticks.
Leeds conceded a galling 11 times in their last two Premier League home matches combined (vs Palace and Liverpool), though they did manage to tighten up a little at Fulham on Saturday where they conceded 12 shots and an xG of 1.7 – figures that were more or less in line with their averages for the campaign.
Those back-to-back maulings at Elland Road have hammered Leeds’s goal difference, and they now hold the division’s second-worst record for goals against per 90 (1.94). Leeds rank mid-table for shots and shots on target against however, which suggests keeper Illan Meslier has been underperforming. It is worth noting that Leeds have been winning considerably more corners than Leicester this season and they are priced at 2/5 to outdo the Foxes in that department again today.
Despite their position as relegation contenders, Leicester have been putting up some positive numbers in attack this season and their ability to manufacture chances was evident again on Saturday when they clocked an impressive eight attempts on target in their win against Wolves.
The Foxes rank 11th in the EPL for goals per 90 (1.34) overall this term, however, defensively they have been a bit of a mess and only four teams have been conceding more shots (14.38). City have been collecting fewer cards on average than Leeds in 2022/23, and United are even money to pick up more cautions again this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Both Patrick Bamford and Luis Sinisterra made a splash off the bench despite Leeds’s reverse to Fulham at the weekend, and both players should bring some attacking threat to the table if they are chosen to start this evening. Bamford is 3/10 to clock at least one shot on target against Leicester, while flying Colombian Sinisterra is 4/9 in the same realm.
Crysencio Summerville meanwhile, was one of three Leeds players (alongside Bamford & Sinisterra) to rack up two shots when United last locked horns with Leicester in October. The Dutch winger is 2/7 to muster at least two strikes at goal again today.
Kelechi Iheanacho was on top of his game against Wolves at the weekend and the Nigerian attacker hit the target with two of his three efforts against Wanderers. the 26-year-old is a generously-priced option at 4/9 to find his range with at least one strike today.
Harvey Barnes was a menacing presence when Leicester beat Leeds 2-0 last year and the flanksman’s numbers in the final third in terms of attempts have been consistent for most of the campaign. Barnes represents excellent value at 8/13 to lodge 1+ shots on target again later on.
Player Goals and Assists
With Patrick Bamford’s finishing skills not as sharp as they should be this season, wingers Crysencio Summerville and Luis Sinisterra might be better options in the anytime goalscorer’s market for Leeds this evening.
Sinisterra has bagged two goals in his last four league starts for Leeds, and he rattled the woodwork with an effort when United lost to Leicester in the reverse fixture. The Colombian is 5/2 to net anytime today, while Summerville, who has two assists since the turn of the year is 9/5 to either score or make a goal today.
Harvey Barnes, who is Leicester’s leading marksman in the Premier League this season with 11 goals, scored City’s second when they beat Leeds 2-0 in October and the jet-heeled 25-year-old is a big price at 11/4 to score anytime again today.
Elsewhere, Kelechi Iheanacho is bidding to register for the third Premier League game in a row this evening and it’s interesting to note that he converted a penalty kick for Leicester at the weekend. With spot-kick responsibilities and good recent form a potentially powerful combo, Iheanacho could be worth a look at 17/10 in the anytime stakes against Leeds.
Leeds and Leicester have been posting similar figures in terms of average possession per game this season, though United did control 53.2% of the ball when the teams met at The King Power Stadium in October and they could be the dominant side at Elland Road again this evening.
Liam Cooper (47.7) and Marc Roca (47.2) have been Leeds’s most prolific distributors this term and both players catch the eye in the 50+ passes market today at 1/2 and 8/11 respectively.
Wout Faes has been starting moves from the back for Leicester this season and the cultured Belgian centre-half has been pinging 62.0 passes per 90 since August. However, Faes is easy to dismiss at 1/12 to beat a 50 passes target today while a hurdle of 70 seems a little too high for him to clear.
Boubakary Soumaré might be the smarter play in midfield to top 50 passes. The Frenchman has managed that feat in three of his last four Premier League starts and the 24-year-old is good value in the markets at 11/10.
Leeds Cards and Fouls
Spanish holding midfielder Marc Roca has been racking up the fouls in recent weeks and the 26-year-old committed four of them against Fulham at the weekend and two in each of his three appearances before that. Roca should interest plenty of bettors at 4/5 to sin at least twice again today.
Beside him, the hyper-aggressive Weston McKennie is 11/10 in the same market. The American has been fouling at a rate of 1.42 times per 90, and the 24-year-old has committed at least two fouls in three of his last four starts. Elsewhere, Rasmus Kristensen (1.07) – who will mark the dangerous Harvey Barnes – is a strong candidate to be carded at 3/1.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has been fouled 1.42 times per 90 this season and if he is deployed as an advanced midfielder for Leicester again this evening, the 24-year-old could be on a collision course with Marc Roca.
James Maddison (2.62) could start closer to the right flank later on, but with licence to drift infield in search of space, the schemer should come into regular contact with the hard-hitting Weston McKennie. Harvey Barnes’s wicked acceleration and direct running should make him a real nuisance for Rasmus Kristensen on the left wing.
Match-Ups to watch
Marc Roca vs Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Weston McKennie vs James Maddison
Rasmus Kristensen vs Harvey Barnes
Leicester City Cards and Fouls
While neither player is listed in our table, both Leicester fullbacks, Timothy Castagne and Victor Kristiansen, should have a hefty defensive workload today against a pair of rapid Leeds wingers.
Castagne committed fouls in each of his last two Premier League start and the Belgian is priced at 4/9 in the 1+ fouls stake today. Kristiansen, who gave away two free kicks against Wolves on Saturday, has fouled at least twice in four of his last six starts overall. The 20-year-old is 4/7 to commit a minimum of two fouls again later on.
Wilfred Ndidi (1.81) could be a decent inclusion at 1/2 in the same market – the Nigerian has committed at least two fouls in three of his last five Premier League starts.
Leeds have pace to burn on both flanks in Crysencio Summerville and Luis Sinisterra, and both nippy wingers tend to draw their fair share of fouls from nervous markers. Their duels with Leicester’s Kristiansen and Castagne could draw intervention from referee Paul Tierney today.
Playmaker Brenden Aaronson (fouled 2.17 times per 90) has a skillset that has been putting him on the radar of numerous holding midfielders this term and the USA international could have his creativity clipped by Leicester’s Ndidi this evening.
Match-Ups to watch
Timothy Castagne vs Luis Sinisterra
Victor Kristiansen vs Crysencio Summerville
Wilfred Ndidi vs Brenden Aaronson
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Keep an eye on my Facebook, Twitter, and Live Tips Page! I’ll be posting a bet builder once line ups are confirmed at around 7pm.