Leeds vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tips, Stats, Best Bets, Predictions

We’re backing Anton Stach, Leeds’ summer signing from Hoffenheim, to commit at least two fouls here. Twice capped for the German national team, Stach is a promising candidate in the fouls market here, facing off against a midfield that contains some prolific foul winners.

The 26-year-old has committed two fouls already for Leeds, doing so against Arsenal last time out. He has fouled twice or more in 8 of his last 13 league games in the Premier League and in the Bundesliga, so a price of 1.80 to foul again seems a little bit high here, and one which we are more than happy to take advantage of.

Stach’s fouls data is strong, but when we consider his likely opponents, this bet looks even better. Newcastle’s midfield features Bruno Guimaraes, who won an average of 2.96 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season.

Usual midfield partner Sandro Tonali looks set to miss out after injuring his shoulder against Liverpool, but Jacob Ramsey should slot in on the left of the three. The ex-Aston Villa man won 1.36 fouls per 90 last season, and has now won fouls in 9 consecutive Premier League starts.

With Newcastle’s first team in disarray, desperately lacking options in both the forward line and the midfield, it seems inevitable that William Osula will make a rare start in the Premier League for the Magpies.

The 22-year-old striker has not featured much in the league this season, but despite logging just 15 minutes of action so far, he has still committed 3 fouls, all coming in just 14 minutes during the 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Monday.

Across Newcastle’s last 30 games, he has averaged 2.59 fouls per 90, and apart from a 1-minute cameo against Aston Villa in the opening game of this season, Osula has now fouled in 5 of his last 6 games for Eddie Howe’s side.

He will be up against a Leeds centre-back pairing of Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk, who won 0.75 and 0.68 fouls per 90 in the Championship last season. Rodon in particular could be the one to be fouled here, having won a foul in both of his Premier League starts so far this season.

With so many first team regulars absent for the visitors, backing Leeds to get on the front foot looks like a sensible choice here. We’re backing Jaden Bogle, the Leeds right-back to have at least one shot here, with the full-back averaging 1.13 shots per 90 across the home side’s last 30 games.

Bogle has had a shot in 6 of his last 7 league games in all competitions, including 4 games in which Bogle has had at least two shots. He did not have a shot against Arsenal in Leeds’ 5-0 defeat last time out, but only two Leeds players did manage a shot, so that is no reason to worry, especially since Bogle had a shot in Leeds’ 1-0 win over Everton.

Leeds’ usual tactic of playing two defensive midfielders means there is a spare man to slot in when Bogle ventures forward, and should allow him to maintain an attacking presence throughout despite the threat of Anthony Elanga and Tino Livramento on his flank. If Leeds can put in a good showing against a weakened Newcastle side, at least one shot should be easily achievable here.

For our final pick, we’re backing another Leeds defender to have a shot on Nick Pope in the Newcastle goal. After a disappointing exit to a second-string Sheffield Wednesday side in the EFL Cup in midweek and a 5-0 loss to Arsenal, a big performance is needed to lift the mood at Elland Road.

If Leeds do rise to the occasion, as they should with Newcastle’s extensive injury list, then centre-back Pascal Struijk getting a shot away seems likely. The defender has had a shot in both of Leeds’ Premier League games this season, and has had a shot in 4 of his last 5, and in 6 of his last 8 league starts for the club.

Averaging 0.85 shots per 90 across this season and last, the 26-year-old has had both of his shots this season from corners. That is usually a strength for Newcastle, but missing Joelinton, and potentially Fabian Schar, they should be much weaker defending set pieces than they usually would be; which opens the door for Struijk to make it 3 Premier League games in a row with at least one shot.