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Leeds vs Southampton Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Leeds vs Southampton

Calendar 26th May
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Leeds corner match bet
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Leeds have averaged 7.88 corners across their last 8 games, taking 8+ corners in 5 of these 8.

Southampton have averaged taken 5 or fewer corners in 6 of their last 8 matches, and lost the corner battle both times they have faced Leeds in the regular season.

Football icon Crysencio Summerville to have 1+ shots on target
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Summerville has had a shot on target in 5 straight Leeds games, and in 9 of his last 12 for the club.

He averaged 1.18 shots on target per 90 in the Championship, and had 2 shots, with 1 on target when these sides met on the final day of the regular season earlier this month.

Football icon Crysencio Summerville to commit 1+ fouls
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Summerville committed 1.26 fouls per 90 this season and has fouled in 15 of his last 19 Leeds games.

He is up against Kyle Walker-Peters who won 1.93 fouls per 90 in the league and has won a foul in 10 of his last 11 Saints games.

Football icon Flynn Downes to be fouled 1+ times
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Downes was fouled 1.31 times per 90 in the Championship this season, and has won a foul in 8 of his last 9 games.

He is up against Georginio Rutter who committed the second-most fouls of any Leeds player at 1.64 per 90, and who has fouled in 9 straight games.

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It’s Leeds vs Southampton in the Championship play-off final, a game we last saw just three weeks ago at Elland Road when the Saints won 2-1 on the final day of the regular season.

Whichever of the two sides prevails will bounce straight back to the top-flight after relegation last season, joining Leicester in spending just one campaign in the Championship.

Leeds fell away from the automatic promotion hunt and looked nervous in the first leg of their semi-final at Carrow Road but blew Norwich away 4-0 at home to book their place in this final, while Southampton also played out a cagey 0-0 draw on the road before taking West Brom apart 3-1 at St Mary’s to secure their spot at Wembley.

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Leeds vs Southampton predicted lineups

Don’t fix what isn’t broken for Leeds

Leeds’ dismantling of a solid Norwich side in the second leg of their play-off semi-final was hugely impressive and should make team selection an easy task for Daniel Farke. There are no new injury concerns, meaning all 11 players who started that game a week and a half ago should feature here. Patrick Bamford is not expected to return from his knee injury until next month, while Sam Byram remains doubtful, though he could be fit to play here if he passes a late fitness test.

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Russell Martin to stick with 4-3-3

Russell Martin will likely stick with the 4-3-3 seeing the success it had in their second leg clash with West Brom. This means Kyle Walker-Peters at right wing back and Ryan Manning at left back. Joe Aribo, Flynn Downes and Will Smallbone will stay on as a midfield three; whilst David Brooks and Ryan Fraser start on the wings, with Adam Armstrong upfront.

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Leeds vs southampton team stats

Leeds look well placed in the corner markets

Leeds are favoured in the corner match bet market here, where they can be backed at 1.83. Recent form shows why they are favourites here, with the Yorkshire outfit having at least eight corners in five of their last eight, whilst Southampton have taken five or fewer in six of their last eight Championship matches. Leeds won the corner battle in both games during the regular season and are averaging 7.88 corners per game in their last eight compared to Southampton’s 6.63.

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Southampton to spring a surprise?

Neither side had a strong end to the season, but Leeds, in particular, struggled, their 4-0 second leg win over Norwich being only their second win in their last eight games. Southampton, meanwhile, have won five of their last nine games, and even beat Leeds 2-1 at Elland Road on the final day of the season. Leeds have also accumulated 1.0 xG or under in three of their last four games, whilst Southampton have generated 1.1 or more xG in all but two games this calendar year. At 2.20 to win, or 1.57 on the double chance markets, the Saints could be well worth backing here against a Leeds side that has struggled to generate chances in recent weeks.

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Leeds VS Southampton SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats

Summerville by far the best option here

Summerville was the only Leeds attacker to hit a shot on target in both legs of the play-off semi-final against Norwich, eventually getting on the scoresheet in the second half to emphatically confirm the Whites’ place at Wembley by making it 4-0. The Dutch forward has had at least one shot on target in five straight games for Leeds, and in nine of his last 12 games in all competitions. He had the most shots on target per 90 of anyone in the Leeds side this season, averaging 1.18 in the league, and he can be backed for a single shot on target here at 1.67.

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Armstrong looks good for a shot on target

Main man Adam Armstrong looks like the lead candidate for a shot on target amongst this Southampton squad, his average of 1.30 per 90 is well clear of that mark. He managed two shots on target in the second leg against West Brom (both resulting in goals), which is more impressive in considering Southampton only managed four overall. Leeds and Southampton last met less than a month ago, with Armstrong having a shot on target in that one as well. In a match where chances may be scarce, he looks the most poised to capitalise. He can be backed to have one or more shots on target at 1.40.

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Leeds VS Southampton GOALS AND ASSISTS stats

Joel Piroe offers the best value here

Few if any Leeds attackers can be considered in-form right now, but Joel Piroe has the best claim of anyone, seeming to heat up at just the right time as Daniel Farke’s side aim to bounce straight back to the Premier League. Piroe has scored in each of his last two starts for Leeds and has had at least one shot on target in each of his last three starts. He averaged 1.07 shots on target per 90 in the Championship this season and looks the best of the Leeds options here available at 3.40 to score anytime.

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Adam Armstrong to repeat West Brom heroics?

Nobody has taken more shots on target per 90 (1.30), had more shots per 90 (3.37) or scored more goals (21) for Southampton in the Championship than Adam Armstrong. He is also coming into form at just the right time, putting a seven-game goal drought behind him on the final day as he scored against today’s opponents Leeds, and then bagging a brace to secure their trip to Wembley in the second leg of the play-off semi-final against West Brom. Armstrong now has three goals in his last three games and will be full of confidence here, where he can be backed to score anytime at 3.50.

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lEEDS CARDS AND FOULS stats

Worth considering Summerville here

Ranking well within the Leeds top five for fouls per 90 in the Championship this season, at 1.26, Crysencio Summerville offers an interesting option in the fouls markets. He has committed at least one foul in 15 of his last 19 games for the club, including two or more in two of the last three games of the regular season. Summerville is up against Kyle Walker-Peters, who won more fouls per 90 than any other Saints player at 1.93, and who has won a foul in 10 of his last 11 Southampton games. Summerville can be backed to commit a foul at 1.40 here.

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Of the likely starters here today, Flynn Downes drew the fifth-most fouls of any Saints player in the Championship this season, averaging 1.31. Downes arrives here in good foul-winning form too, having drawn a foul in eight of his last nine starts for Southampton. He also has a very solid matchup in Georginio Rutter, who committed the second-most fouls per 90 of any Leeds player in the Championship this season (1.64) and has now fouled in nine straight games for the club. Downes can be backed to be fouled once or more at 1.50.

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Southampton CARDS AND FOULS stats

Jack Stephens the best option in the fouls market

Coming in at fifth in the fouls per 90 stakes for Southampton this season, committing 0.90 per 90 in the Championship, Jack Stephens is available at 1.53 to commit a foul here. The Saints centre-back has fouled in 11 of his last 12 Championship games, including the game at Elland Road on the final day of the season. He has a tough matchup here too, up against the pacy Wilfried Gnonto, who won more fouls than any other Leeds player in the Championship this season, at 2.93. The Italian has won three or more fouls in four of his last seven games, so Stephens looks likely to commit at least one foul here.

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With the options available in the fouls won market being generally underwhelming for Leeds, it makes sense to look for a less likely option who is undervalued here. Wales international Ampadu fits the bill nicely, as he can be backed at 1.80 to be fouled here, despite his record of 0.85 fouls won per 90 in the Championship this season. The centre-back has won a foul in five of his last nine Leeds starts and is up against Adam Armstrong who commits 0.94 fouls per 90 and has committed a foul in five of his last six starts for Southampton.

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