Leicester vs Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, Preview

Leicester defender Caleb Okoli returned to the starting XI last time out against Brighton and is likely to retain his spot, after the Foxes managed a 2-2 draw to snap their nine-game losing streak in the Premier League, and with Wout Faes still a doubt for this game.

The 23-year-old has fouled in each of his last four starts for the Foxes, with three of those four games seeing him foul twice or more. He has also fouled twice off the bench in his three most recent appearances as a sub, making it seven straight league games in which he has fouled.

Okoli last had a solid run in the side under former boss Steve Cooper, who handed the Italian 10 consecutive starts in all competitions. During this run he committed nine fouls, fouling in seven of these 10 starts. Based on the frequency with which Okoli fouls (1.28 fouls per 90 in the Premier League), odds of 1.73 seem far too high here.

He will be up against Liverpool’s Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz, who have won 1.07 and 1.32 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season. Diaz has won fouls in five of his last six Liverpool games, whilst Jota has won seven fouls in his last seven Liverpool starts.

Liverpool’s Curtis Jones offers an appealing price to commit a foul. Now a full-fledged England international, Jones has been a much bigger part of Liverpool’s squad this season, though he is still closer to a rotation option than a nailed-on starter. Having started four straight league games for the club though, we do expect he will start this game.

The 24-year-old midfielder has committed a foul in seven of his last eight starts for Liverpool in the Premier League, and averages 0.95 fouls per 90 in the competition. Interestingly, Jones is even more of a prolific fouler away from home, fouling in each of his last five league starts away from Anfield.

He will be up against a Leicester midfield containing Wilfried Ndidi and Boubakary Soumare. Ndidi wins 1.48 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, and has won two or more fouls in four of his last eight starts for Leicester in the competition, whilst Soumare wins 1.0 fouls per 90. Ndidi did not feature in the first clash between these sides earlier in the season, but Soumare did play and won a foul away at Anfield back on Boxing Day.

We’re taking advantage of Paddy Power’s Super Sub feature when we back Bilal El Khannouss to be fouled at least once here.

The Leicester man has himself been fouled in six of his last 10 Premier League starts, already a strong return from someone priced at 1.57 to be fouled, but when we add Super Sub to the equation, this bet would have landed in 13 of El Khannouss’ last 16 starts for Leicester in all competitions, with Facundo Buonanotte the usual replacement.

El Khannouss wins 1.32 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, second only to Wilfred Ndidi’s 1.48 amongst players expected to start for the Foxes here. If he is replaced, it will almost certainly be by Facundo Buonanotte, who wins 2.07 fouls per 90 in the Premier League. This bet would have landed in the reverse fixture, thanks to Super Sub, as Buonanotte was fouled after coming on for El Khannouss.

El Khannouss will be up against Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch, who commit 2.47 and 1.08 fouls per 90 respectively. Mac Allister looks the main threat, having fouled five times in the reverse fixture, and twice or more in three of his last four league starts.

Our final selection in our Leicester v Liverpool Bet Builder is Alexis Mac Allister to be fouled at least once. The Argentina international has won the second-most fouls per 90 of any player to regularly feature for Liverpool in the Premier League this season, his 1.43 fouls won per 90 sitting only slightly behind Ryan Gravenberch’s 1.47.

Mac Allister has won at least one foul in 14 of his last 16 Premier League games, including a foul won in 44 minutes off the bench against Southampton in early March. He won two fouls when these sides last met, on Boxing Day last year, and though Gravenberch has won slightly more fouls per 90, Mac Allister is the more consistent pick to win fouls on a game-by-game basis.

He will be up against Bilal El Khannouss and Wilfred Ndidi, who commit 1.27 and 1.61 fouls per 90 respectively. Ndidi has fouled six times in his last five league games, whilst El Khannouss has committed four fouls in his last five. Mac Allister’s fouls won numbers are strong enough to make it worth backing this pick on their own, and two solid matchups only make the selection more appealing.