Leicester vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tips, Preview

The EFL Cup winners should have far too much strength in all phases of the game for Ruud van Nistelrooy’s Leicester side. For all that Newcastle have come into more form since the turn of the year, this pick should come solely off the opponent with Leicester losing 8 on the spin and failing to keep a clean sheet in 26 games.

Leicester, in most if not all Premier League seasons, would have been the worst side to grace the league. Southampton with just 10 points are the only side keeping Leicester off the foot of the table. When it comes to home fixtures, Leicester have managed just 11 goals in 30 games (20th in PL), they’ve won just 2 games (18th in PL) and have conceded the 3rd most goals in the PL.

By contrast, Newcastle have dominated on the road against lesser teams recently and are unbeaten in 5 against Leicester. Newcastle won their last away game against West Ham 1-0, showing despite attacking injuries they can rely on defensive solidity to see them home. That record is backed up against Leicester with 4 clean sheets in a row vs their hosts.

One consistent throughout this season and throughout most years with Leicester is Jamie Vardy. Vardy came to stardom properly in 2015/16 and despite being somewhat past him prime, he is great value at 1.67 to hit the target. Vardy’s last goal came vs Spurs on the 26th January but he’s still hit the target 5 times since then from 7 shots.

In his last 5 games, Vardy has hit the target 5 times, including in 3 of the 4 games he’s played 90 minutes. Vardy was hooked after 58 minutes away at Newcastle in their 4-0 defeat but managed 1 shot, a blocked header. On this occasion he will face a far weaker back line with the likes of Emile Krafth in line to start.

Newcastle have conceded 61 shots on target in their last 13, allowing 4.7 per game on average. They’ve allowed multiple shots on target in every game in that time span. In their last game, Yoane Wissa managed 3 shots while Bryan Mbuemo scored a penalty. With Vardy on penalties and playing in a similar position to Wissa, he should have opportunities a plenty.

James Justin to be fouled is a really nicely priced selection with the way Newcastle will set up. The majority of Newcastle’s energetic press is stimulated by their midfield 3 which force opposing times to utilise the wide areas. James Justin has stepped up from a traditional right back into a wing back role in the past 3 games since Leicester flipped to a back 5. He’s drawn fouls against Manchester City and Chelsea, similar calibre sides to Newcastle in the table.

Injuries to the likes of Joelinton, Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon will massively hamper Newcastle’s attacking abilities down the left. The Geordies expect to start with Livramento at left back, Willock on the left of the 3 in midfield and Barnes on the left wing. All 3 are naturally right footed and will tend to shift inside, leading to more space for Justin in wider areas. Van Nistelrooy’s side will aim to get the ball right quickly, increasing Justin’s chances of drawing a foul.

When it comes to either committing or drawing fouls, Jordan Ayew is always involved in some regard. Priced at just 1/9 to draw a foul, then is plenty more value in the Ghanaian to commit one here. In Ayew’s last PL stats against Brentford, Ayew failed to commit a foul but prior to that game, he managed 7 in the last 3.

This season, in all competitions, Ayew has averaged 1.85 fouls P/90 for Leicester. He also averaged 5 fouls PG for Palace but that is off a 20 minute sample. In the last 6 seasons for Palace, he averaged, 1.63, 1.59, 1.70, 1.93, 1.69 and 2.37 fouls P/90. Newcastle draw fouls a plenty, drawing 10+ in 11 of their last 13 games and Ayew is highly likely to commit at least 1 tracking back.