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Leicester v Nottingham Forest
25th October
kick off 20:00 Both Teams To Score Nottingham Forest Double Chance Facundo Buonanotte To Have 2+ Shots Ryan Yates To Be Fouled 2+ Times
In this article
Leg 1: Both Teams To Score
Fresh off the back of two wins, their first two of the season, Leicester should be full of confidence heading into this East Midlands derby. There is extra spice added here too, with new Leicester boss Steve Cooper returning to face Forest for the first time since his sacking last season.
The Foxes may be sitting in 14th in the Premier League, but they have an impressive goalscoring record, notching at least one goal in every one of their eight league games so far. They have only failed to score once in 10 games in all competitions, their blank coming with a heavily-rotated side against Walsall in the third round of the EFL Cup.
Leicester have scored twice or more in three of their last five league games and have scored in tough home fixtures against Tottenham and Aston Villa already this season. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have failed to score only once in the Premier League, at home against Fulham in September.
Leicester have conceded in all but one of their Premier League games this campaign, with BTTS landing in seven of their eight. It has also landed in both of Forest’s last two away games.
Leg 2: Nottingham Forest Double Chance
As noted above, Forest have failed to score just once in the Premier League this season, on the occasion of their only defeat, at home to Fulham. The Tricky Trees have so far won three and drawn four of their eight league games, an impressive start that looks set to continue as they visit the Foxes.
Leicester, meanwhile, have won twice this season. They were fortunate to beat Bournemouth, as the visitors comfortably won the xG battle 2.1-0.8. Last time out, they needed a red card, a penalty, and a last-minute winner to beat a poor Southampton side 3-2. The Foxes have conceded well over 1.0 xGA in all eight of their league games this season and were fortunate to keep a clean sheet in that win over Bournemouth.
Forest look good value for the win, but with Nuno Espirito Santo’s side having drawn four of their eight games in the league, the double chance market offers some nice insurance against that possibility. Leicester can certainly get on the scoresheet here, but we have seen little to suggest that they can score the multiple goals required likely required to secure all three points.
Leg 3: Facundo Buonanotte to have 2+ Shots
Fresh off the back of two goals in two games, Brighton loanee Facundo Buonanotte is fast becoming an integral part of this Leicester side. It was his goal that kickstarted their fightback from 2-0 down against Southampton, and he went close at least twice more, taking five shots across the game.
The Argentina international has now had at least two shots in each of his last four starts for the Foxes, taking three shots against Bournemouth and five shots against both Southampton and Walsall. He also managed two shots on the road against Arsenal at the end of last month.
With Buonanotte also taking two shots in a 23-minute cameo from the bench against Aston Villa in August, he has proven that if the opportunity is there, he will certainly take it on, which bodes well for this selection.
He averages 2.55 shots per 90 in the Premier League, a number that increases sharply when looking at just his last three games to 3.52 per 90. Forest have allowed an average of 16.67 shots across their last three away league games and if Leicester get anywhere near this tally, Buonanotte is highly likely to have taken at least two shots.
Leg 4: Ryan Yates To BE fOULED 2+ tIMES
Having forced his way into the starting XI after a great showing against Liverpool at Anfield as Forest secured a surprise 1-0 victory, Yates has proven invaluable for drawing fouls and relieving pressure on Nuno’s side.
The Nottingham-born midfielder has started four times for Forest this season, winning at least two fouls in all four matches. He has won three or more fouls in three of these four and peaked for the season when he won five fouls at home to Fulham last month.
Yates also played 76 minutes off the bench in their season opener at home to Bournemouth, where he won four fouls, along with winning two fouls in 25 minutes off the bench against Southampton. All this averages out to a massive 3.17 fouls won per 90 in the league.
His matchups look very solid here, with the 26-year-old set to go up against Wilfried Ndidi and Bilal El Khannouss. Ndidi has fouled 1.79 times per 90 in the Premier League fouling twice or more in five of his last eight starts in the league, whilst El Khannouss has done so 1.25 times per 90, fouling once in both of his league starts.
Feel free to use our Stats Pack Guide alongside the Stats Pack itself if you want to make the most out of the numbers.
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