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Liverpool vs Aston Villa
9th November
kick off 20:00 Liverpool To Win Aston Villa To Commit 12+ Fouls Luis Diaz To Have 1+ Shots On Target Youri Tielemans To Be Fouled 2+ Times
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Leg 1: Liverpool to wiN
Liverpool are the form team in Europe right now, with Arne Slot’s side currently sitting top of both the Premier League and the Champions League. After early season worries about an ‘easy’ fixture list, they have overcome all the tests they have faced so far, and will be confident facing any side.
Their only loss came to Nottingham Forest, who sit third in the Premier League, and since that defeat, they have won 11 of their next 12 games in all competitions, scoring 30 goals and conceding just nine. They have also kept five clean sheets during this run.
Aston Villa are no pushovers, but Liverpool to win at home in this kind of form, available at this price is tough to ignore. This game may also be coming at a bad time for the visitors, who have now lost three straight games in all competitions.
They were knocked out of the EFL Cup by Crystal Palace, beaten 4-1 by Tottenham and then lost 1-0 to Club Brugge in the Champions League. With one day’s less rest than their hosts, a result of any kind looks a tough ask for this out-of-sorts Villa team.
Leg 2: Aston Villa To COmmit 12+ Fouls
Aston Villa will be desperate to pick up a statement result away to Liverpool as they seek to arrest what is now becoming a very noticeable blip. After starting the season flying, Unai Emery’s side have now lost three straight in all competitions, and we expect them to be well up for this game as they aim to prevent that run extending to four.
The Villans average 12.4 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, the fifth-most fouls of any side. They have now fouled 12 or more times in four of their last five league outings, and have failed to hit double figures for fouls just once, at home against Arsenal way back on Matchday 2.
Villa have also fouled 12+ times in three of their four Champions League games this season, and in six of their eight away games in all competitions.
Liverpool only average 10.4 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League, but this number has shot up in recent weeks. Across their last five league games, the Reds have won 13 or more fouls on four occasions, only failing to do so away to Crystal Palace, who committed just seven.
Leg 3: Luis Diaz To Have 1+ Shots On Target
Luis Diaz averages the second most shots on target per 90 of any regular starter for Liverpool in the Premier League, coming out just behind their talisman, Mo Salah.
Diaz has been in and out of the side at times this season, but Arne Slot will surely look to include him here after an outstanding showing on Tuesday night. The Colombia international bagged a hat-trick against Leverkusen to make it four goals in his last two starts for the club, so he will be full of confidence heading into this clash on Saturday.
Diaz averages 2.74 shots per 90 in the league, with 1.45 of these being on target, a strong conversion rate of 52.9%. That efficiency suggests that few chances will be needed for Diaz to test Emi Martinez in the Aston Villa goal. On average, every one in two shots from the winger find the target.
With at least one shot on target in six of his last eight appearances for club and country, Diaz looks a great price to have another one here, especially as he started just five of those eight games.
Leg 4: Youri Tielemans To Be Fouled 2+ Times
We are backing Villa to commit plenty of fouls in this game with our selection above, but we do expect that to work both ways here, with Liverpool also likely to get in on the act.
The Reds have been committing 11.9 fouls per 90 this season, most of which have come from their midfielders, which is why we are targeting Youri Tielemans to be fouled twice or more.
The Belgium international has won 1.84 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season. Across his 14 starts in the league and Champions League, Tielemans has won at least one foul in every single game. He has also won at least two fouls in four of his last six starts for Villa in the league heading into this game.
He will be up against Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, who commit 2.08 and 1.63 fouls per 90 in the Premier League respectively. Mac Allister has fouled in all 13 of his Liverpool starts this season, whilst Szoboszlai has now fouled in seven straight starts, including fouling twice in both of his last two.
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Liverpool vs Aston Villa predicted lineups
Liverpool vs Aston Villa team stats
Liverpool vs Aston Villa shots and shots on target stats
Liverpool vs Aston Villa goals and assist stats
Liverpool cards and fouls stats
Aston Villa cards and fouls stats.
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