Liverpool made light of another Champions League challenge when they beat Ajax in Amsterdam on Wednesday evening, though the Reds haven’t looked the part domestically where they have dropped points in seven out of 11 games so far. Jurgen Klopp will demand that his troops gather three points against a Leeds side in freefall under Jesse Marsch today however, in front of an equally expectant Anfield crowd.
As per the usual routine, you can find our metric-laden stats pack for this evening’s tussle on Merseyside below. Use our info on shots, shots on target, corners, cards and more to construct more refined bet builders for the game. Not sure how to make best use of the data? Check out my Stats Pack Guide before you start.
Predicted Lineups
Arthur, Joel Matip, Luis Diaz, Naby Keita and Diogo Jota are all still injured for Liverpool, while Jordan Henderson is a doubt after the midfielder was taken off against Ajax in midweek.
With options thin on the ground in forward areas, Roberto Firmino, Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez should start together for the second game in a row.
Leeds will be without Adam Forshaw, Stuart Dallas and Leo Hjelde at Anfield. Tyler Adams faces a late fitness test, though he isn’t the only one in a race to be ready.
Rodrigo, Luis Sinisterra, Liam Cooper and Joe Gelhardt are all nursing niggles, though Jesse Marsch will hope to be able to call up on some of them today.
Team Stats
Liverpool controlled 75% of the ball and mustered 15 shots to Forest’s ten at the City Ground last weekend, but still managed to lose the game 1-0, and that’s been a familiar tale for the Reds this term.
Liverpool rank near the top of the Premier League for a number of metrics including shots (17.60), xG (2.37), shots on target (5.90) and corners for (7.45) per 90, however, wins are still proving elusive.
Leeds’s 3-2 reverse at home to Fulham on Sunday was their fourth defeat on the spin in the Premier League and their sixth loss in eight games overall and it feels as though manager Jesse Marsch is on the brink of the sack.
Leeds’s stats for the campaign suggest that they’ve been competitive in the main, with most of their metrics for goals, xG and shots well-matched in both directions. Perhaps they feel they are overdue a rub of the green.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Darwin Nunez has had his fair share of criticism since joining Liverpool from Benfica, though the Uruguayan is undeniably an impactful presence when he plays. He has been clocking 7.37 shots per 90 minutes or 4.00 per Premier League appearance if you prefer.
Roberto Firmino still ranks well for both shots (3.38) and shots on target (3.38) in the Premier League, while Mohamed Salah is starting to push his numbers north. The Egyptian had four attempts against Forest last week, with two of those testing Dean Henderson.
Rodrigo (4.18 shots per 90) continues to find favour up front under Jesse Marsch and the Spaniard mustered three attempts in Leeds’s loss to Fulham last weekend.
Holding midfielder Marc Roca racked up two attempts against the Cottagers, though he is unlikely to raid forward quite so readily at Anfield. Colombian winger Luis Sinisterra (1.99 shots per 90) can threaten most teams from wider positions.
Player Goals and Assists
Mohamed Salah boosted his numbers in the Champions League with another goal against Ajax on Wednesday, though his winner against Man City on October 16 remains his only Premier League strike in eight appearances. Salah collected two goals and one assist when Liverpool battered Leeds 6-0 at Anfield in February.
The Reds’ top scorer in the league, Roberto Firmino, has gone three games without finding the net domestically, though Darwin Nunez has scored twice in his last three league run outs.
Rodrigo’s fifth goal of the season broke the deadlock against Fulham last weekend, though a glance at Leeds’s next-best marksmen in the Premier League highlights their issues in the final third.
Luis Sinisterra has bagged two goals, though he has gone four matches since his last effort without registering. Five different Leeds players have nicked a goal each, while Jack Harrison leads the charts for assists (three). However, the 25-year-old hasn’t set up a goal since August.
Liverpool Cards
Only West Ham and Man City have amassed fewer cards than Liverpool in the Premier League this season, though Fabinho, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Darwin Nunez should all have their prices checked today.
Fabinho (1.67 fouls per 90) is the Reds’ prime master of destruction in midfield, while Alexander-Arnold (two) is a nervous defender, especially against pace. Darwin Nunez (1.32 fouls per 90) has a combative South American streak that might start to land him in trouble when his reputation for committing overzealous challenges starts to build.
Brenden Aaronson (fouled 2.53 times per 90) has been playing more key passes per game than any of his Leeds teammates this season (2.1) and that’s usually the kind of influential figure that Jurgen Klopp instructs Fabinho to shackle.
On the flank, Leeds’s most-fouled player this term, Luis Sinisterra, will be determined to test Alexander-Arnold’s concentration, while Liam Cooper (fouled 0.60 times per game) could be on the end of a heavy tackle or two from the menacing Darwin Nunez.
Match-Ups to watch
Fabinho vs Brenden Aaronson
Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Luis Sinisterra
Darwin Nunez vs Liam Cooper
Leeds Cards
Energetic Colombian Luis Sinisterra has accumulated more cards than any other Leeds player this season, though several of his teammates look like better card candidates at Anfield today.
Robin Koch (three cards) is about as no-nonsense as they come at the back for Leeds and the German will relish getting up close and personal to Darwin Nunez today alongside his partner Liam Cooper.
Leeds had a left-back booked (Junior Firpo) when they last visited Anfield and Pascal Strujik could have a similarly uncomfortable time in that position this evening. Tyler Adams is a tackling machine in midfield (4.1 per game), though he does tend to give away plenty of fouls too (1.60 p/90), so watch the American closely.
When Darwin Nunez (fouled 0.79 times per 90) isn’t wrestling with Liam Cooper, Robin Koch will next in line to try to get to grips with the Liverpool striker. That head-to-head is pulsating with card potential.
Mohamed Salah turned left-back Junior Firpo inside-out when Liverpool smashed Leeds on Merseyside in February. Firpo was booked on that occasion and Leeds fullback Pascal Strujik could suffer a similar fate if run ragged by the same opponent.
If Thiago (fouled 2.6 times p/90) starts in midfield he will have Tyler Adams for company and the American won’t hesitate if has the chance to hit the Spaniard hard.
Match-Ups to watch
Robin Koch vs Darwin Nunez
Pascal Strujik vs Mohamed Salah
Tyler Adams vs Thiago
