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Liverpool vs Leverkusen
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Leg 1: Liverpool to wIN
Whilst this will be far from an easy three points for Liverpool, their impressive recent form under Arne Slot means backing the Reds to win at home at this price is always an attractive option.
Liverpool have won all but two of their 14 games in all competitions this season, losing 1-0 to an impressive Nottingham Forest side who sit third in the Premier League, and drawing 2-2 away from home to last season’s Premier League runners-up, Arsenal.
Leverkusen, by contrast, have found last year’s heroics to be a tough act to follow, and currently sit fourth in the Bundesliga, seven points adrift of table-topping Bayern Munich.
They have been unimpressive in the biggest games, which does not bode well ahead of a trip to Anfield, which is one of the toughest away fixtures in European football. They have lost at home to RB Leipzig, managed just 0.3 xG in a fortunate 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich and drawn with Stuttgart in recent weeks.
Furthermore, the German champions have won just one of their last four games in all competitions, a 3-0 cup success over mid-table 2. Bundesliga side Elversburg. All signs point to Liverpool’s perfect record in this competition continuing.
Leg 2: Over 1.5 lIVERPOOL Cards
Arne Slot’s Liverpool side are by no means some of the worst offenders in terms of fouls, but they have been racking up a consistent number of cards throughout the season so far.
Six of their last seven games have seen them shown at least two cards, seeing three bookings against Wolves and four in their games against both Bologna and Chelsea, which were two of the more competitive affairs they have been involved with lately.
We expect this to be Liverpool’s toughest test in the Champions League so far, with Leverkusen having the attacking quality to consistently pose questions of Liverpool’s defence, which should provide plenty of opportunities for bookings for the home side.
They have seen seven cards in their three Champions League games to date, whilst Leverkusen’s opponents have been shown six cards in their three games, with their last two opponents, Milan and Brest shown three and two bookings respectively.
The only game in which Xabi Alonso’s side did not see two or more cards shown to their opponents was their opener against Feyenoord, which they won 4-0 at a canter. We expect this to be a hard-fought affair, and the cards should flow as a result.
Leg 3: Florian Wirtz To Have 1+ Shots On Target
Leverkusen wonderkid Florian Wirtz is attracting plenty of attention from Europe’s top sides, with the feeling growing that this campaign may be his last in the red and black shirts of the reigning German champions.
He has been their obvious standout player in their return to Champions League football with three goals in three starts, at a rate of 1.07 goals per 90. To register these three goals, Wirtz has taken just 2.86 shots per 90, his incredible efficiency proven by his average of 1.79 shots on target per 90.
Wirtz has had at least one shot on target in all three Champions League games, notching five in total. He has also had at least one shot on target in seven of his last eight games for Leverkusen in either the Bundesliga or the Champions League, including an impressive burst of two shots on target in just 27 minutes off the bench against Frankfurt.
Whilst the results have not been going the way of Xabi Alonso’s side, little of that blame can be laid at Wirtz’s door, and we expect him to test Caoimhin Kelleher in the Liverpool goal at least once here.
lEG 4: Jonathan Tah to commit 1+ Fouls
Leverkusen centre-back Jonathan Tah looks a solid choice for a foul here. The Germany international sits in the middle of the German champions’ back three, putting him in direct competition with the opposition striker.
Tah has fouled 1.33 times per 90 in the Champions League this season, the joint-most of any Leverkusen player in European competition. Tah has fouled at least once in all three of his starts in the league phase so far, one against both Feyenoord and AC Milan, before committing two in his last outing in continental competition, away to Brest.
Across all competitions, that is now 10 out of the last 15 games in which Tah has committed at least one foul. Liverpool should be on the front foot throughout here, giving Tah more defending to do, and more chances to be whistled for a foul.
He will be up against Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez, who has now drawn at least one foul in four of his last five appearances in which he featured for more than 45 minutes. In the Premier League this season, Nunez has proven a handful for defenders, drawing 1.56 fouls per 90.
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Liverpool vs Leverkusen predicted lineups


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Liverpool VS Leverkusen SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats


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liVERPOOL CARDS AND FOULS stats


lEVERKUSEN CARDS AND FOULS stats


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