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Manchester City have been in superb form lately, and though their wins have not come easily, they have now won every match since heading to the Club World Cup in December. They are in what could be yet another nail-biting title race with Liverpool and every point will be crucial between now and May.
Burnley are in desperate need of points, but for the opposite reason. The Clarets are seven points adrift of 17th-placed Luton heading into the match and must show signs of life before it’s too late.
They will not be expecting to get anything here, after all, Man City have won the last 12 meetings between these two sides, but a positive result here would be a huge boost to their already slim hopes of survival. Regardless of the result looking fairly assured already, this should be a game with plenty of goals and action, which makes it an enticing encounter to consider bet builder angles for.
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Man City vs Burnley Predicted Lineups
Rotation necessary for Cityzens
Man City had a week off a fortnight ago but with Pep Guardiola’s side still in the FA Cup they got back to action last Friday, seeing off Tottenham away from home with a late Nathan Ake finish. Despite it being a cup tie, City went very strong in their lineup for the Spurs game, so there should be few changes here, with Oscar Bobb likely to drop to the bench for Jeremy Doku, or even Jack Grealish. John Stones and Erling Haaland are both back in training and may feature here, although it does not seem likely that either will start.
Same again for well rested Burnley
Already out of the FA Cup, Burnley’s last fixture was their 1-1 draw with Luton on January 12th, so their squad may well be struggling for match sharpness here. With no fresh injury concerns or suspensions, it seems likely that Vincent Kompany will start with the same lineup as the game with Luton. Charlie Taylor and Jordan Beyer are both doubtful, but as regular starters before their respective injuries, they could see some action if they have recovered enough to feature.
Man City vs Burnley Team Stats
Man City corners offers solid value
At home Man City have been racking up corners lately, having seen relatively few in the opening weeks of the season, their last five home games have seen them averaging 9.8 corners per game. They have had at least nine corners in four of these five games, including games against Liverpool and Spurs. Whilst Spurs and Liverpool put up big numbers themselves, the other three sides in this sample managed no more than two corners. Over 6.5 Man City corners at 1.5 appeals.
A busy City return on the cards for James Trafford
Former Man City youth keeper Trafford has been one of Burnley’s better players this season, which makes you worry about where the club would be without him considering they still only have 12 points. Trafford has been forced into at least four saves in each of his last five games, whilst Burnley have conceded at least five shots on target in all of their last five games. In recent games against ball-dominant sides such as Liverpool and Brighton, that number jumps to 10 and 11 shots on target, so backing Man City for 8+ (1.44) or 9+ (1.83) shots on target looks a viable play here, as does diving into the goalkeeper saves market.
Man City vs Burnley Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Rodri a good option here
When given space and a clear sight at goal, Rodri can and will pull the trigger, and he is very accurate when he does so. Burnley know this better than most as the Spanish midfielder had four shots, three on target and scored a goal when the two sides last met in August. Rodri has had at least one shot in all of his last 10 league starts and had a shot on target in six of those games. He has averaged three shots a game in his last five starts and can be backed for a shot on target at 1.57, or to take 2+ or 3+ shots (1.25 and 1.91 respectively).
Wilson Odobert offers nice value
Wilson Odobert has now had a shot in every league game he has started for Burnley this season but can be backed at 1.4 to keep the streak going. He still managed a shot against Liverpool, a game in which Burnley were completely outclassed, so there is reason to believe he can keep this streak going even away from home and facing the champions. Odobert has had a shot on target in four of his last seven and can be backed to make it five in eight at 3.1 if you fancy a longer odds leg.
Whilst not topping the table for shots per game for the Clarets, Lyle Foster looks to be a solid option for a bet builder here. The South African forward had two shots when these two sides last met, and he has had eight shots in his last six league games. Backing him for one shot, which does not even need to hit the target, at 1.33 should appeal to anyone crafting a Man City v Burnley bet builder.
Man City vs Burnley Goals and Assists Stats
Foden on the radar
Phil Foden has had at least one shot on target in all of his last five, and racked up 7, 3, 4, 6 and 2 shots in these five games respectively, all while supplying 19 shot assists in his last three league games. He can be backed to score anytime at 2.1 or to score or assist at 1.62.
Wilson Odobert the best option here
Burnley’s attacking play almost always comes down the left, so if you’re seeking a longshot option (and it is a big longshot as Burnley have now failed to score against Man City for eight consecutive games), then backing Lyle Foster for a goal or an assist (available at odds of 5.50) could pay dividends. The South African has had six shots in his last five games and has racked up two goal contributions in that time. He has also had 10 shot-creating actions in his last five league starts, so an assist could be on the cards just as much as a goal.
Man City Cards and Fouls Stats
Gvardiol making plenty of fouls this season
Man City’s Croatian defender has had a solid but unspectacular start to life in the Premier League, but he has been accumulating a good number of fouls as the season has gone on. He has committed a foul in six of his last seven league starts, and is up against Johann Berg Gudmundsson, who draws 1.30 fouls per game, so there is value to be found in backing him to commit a foul at 1.53.
Josh Cullen the standout
Josh Cullen draws 2.31 fouls per game, way higher than any of his teammates. He will be in the midfield, up against Rodri and Mateo Kovacic, who commit more fouls for City than any of their team-mates, at 1.61 and 1.26 per game. Cullen has been fouled in every league game he has started, and having been fouled twice or more in seven of his 11 starts, backing him to be fouled twice at 1.61 looks a nice play.
Burnley Cards and Fouls Stats
Vitinho in for a long evening
Regardless of who plays left-wing for City, whether it be Jeremy Doku, Jack Grealish or even Oscar Bobb, they are extremely proficient at drawing fouls. We expect it will be Doku, who averages 2.09 fouls drawn per 90. Vitinho may not feature amongst the Burnley players who make the most fouls, but he has now committed at least one foul in all of his last seven Premier League games. Up against one of the best in the world at beating his man, it would be a surprise for this to fail here, so backing Vitinho for a foul at 1.40 offers great value.
Nathan Ake a surprising choice here
Drawing just under a foul per game at 0.9 per 90, Nathan Ake has drawn on average one foul per game in his last four league starts. He has won fouls in three of his four starts against sides currently in the bottom three, including in the earlier fixture between these two sides at Turf Moor. Capable of stepping forward with the ball and intelligent enough to bait fouls when there are no available passing options, Ake can be backed to be fouled at 1.67, a good price considering his record in games against the poorer sides in the division.
Man City vs Burnley Key Matchups
Jeremy Doku v Vitinho
Phil Foden v Josh Brownhill
Julian Alvarez v Dara O’Shea
Rodri v Josh Cullen
Man City vs Burnley Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
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Man City vs Burnley
31st January
kick off 19:30 Over 6.5 Man City corners
Man City have had 9+ corners in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Against sides in the top 4, Burnley have conceded 6.8 corners per game on average.
Man City 8+ shots on targetMan City have had 8+ shots on target in 3 of their last 4 league games.
Burnley have conceded 5+ shots on target in all of their last 5 league games, and conceded 11 and then 10 to Brighton and Liverpool in recent weeks.
Rodri 1+ shots on targetRodri has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 league games, and averages 3 shots per game in his last 5 league games.
Rodri has registered 5 shots on target from 3 games against sides in the relegation zone.
Phil Foden to score or assistFoden has 5 goal contributions (3 goals, 2 assists) in his last five games for Man City.
Foden has been averaging 5.33 shots per game and 6.33 shot creating actions per game across his last 3 Premier League games.
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