In this article
Title-chasing Manchester City welcome under pressure Everton to the Etihad where most are expecting a regulation home victory. Pep Guardiola’s men looked mightily impressive on Monday night as they came from a goal down to beat Brentford 3-1.
They are very short-priced favourites to collect another 3 points taking on an Everton side who themselves managed a late comeback last week to earn a point vs Tottenham. Both sides need the points for different reasons in this Saturday lunchtime clash.
Our Stats Pack Guide can help you take greater value from the visuals and data below.
Man City vs Everton predicted lineups
Familiar approach for City?
We are entering the stage of the season where the Man City XI will become notoriously hard to predict, especially with Champions League matches around the corner. But they played so well on Monday night that the temptation for Pep Guardiola will be to keep things the same. A 4-1-4-1 system must be considered with left back being a spot which could change hands. Jeremy Doku might come into consideration to play as well. Erling Haaland should continue to get back to full sharpness by spearheading the City attack.
Everton to park the bus
Everton have Abdoulaye Doucoure and Andre Gomes ruled out injured but the squad is generally in good health. Sean Dyche is expected to park the bus in a 4-4-1-1 system with Dominic Calvert-Lewin upfront. Nathan Patterson gets the nod at right back for the Toffees and they double up their defence on that side of the field with veteran Ashley Young projected to start at right midfield. Amadou Onana is back in contention after injury but might have to accept a place on the bench here.
Man City vs Everton team stats
City have Rolls Royce metrics
Pep Guardiola’s men have brilliant stats with their xGF and xGA numbers consistently strong. City only concede 6.77 shots against per game which is a really low figure, although nearly half of those have landed on target. The Cityzens average a massive 7.32 corners per game. The hosts are well disciplined and draw over three cards from their opponents, so Everton will come under some pressure.
Everton with the same old problems
Everton have big underlying issues in front of goal. Their xG per game of 1.55 has only been converted into 1.13 goals, although they did score twice last week. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been one of the worst strikers for finishing underperformance in the Premier League this season despite hitting the back of the net vs Spurs. The Toffees have been fairly decent defensively and only allow 13.35 shots from their opponents per game. Cards have been very low in Everton fixtures at just 3.87 in each match. They have been well disciplined and are unlikely to step out of their shape against City.
Man City vs Everton shots and shots on target stats
Rodri relishing this type of game
With Erling Haaland now back from injury a lot of the focus will be on the Norwegian international. He is 1.33 to have two or more shots on target which would mostly be in line with his seasonal statistics. This is possibly more appealing than the 1.25 on offer that he has four or more shots. Julian Alvarez’s stats could be misleading because he won’t be playing upfront here as he has been in recent weeks. Rodri could be a great value option at 1.44 to have two or more shots. This is the sort of game in which City might have to find the breakthrough from distance.
Calvert-Lewin confident after last week’s goal?
It hasn’t been a good season for Calvert-Lewin. However, he still averages over one shot on target per 90. He scored against Spurs last week so his tail should be up. Everton will have limited chances at the Etihad but you have to think an opportunity will fall his way at some point. The 1.83 that he finds the target could be some real value. Alternatively, you could take him to have two or more shots at 1.62. Dwight McNeil (1.22) or Jack Harrison (1.40) could be possibilities to have a single shot or more. Both might get the odd chance on the break.
Man City vs Everton goals and assists stats
All eyes on Haaland
Erling Haaland returned to the team vs Burnley off the bench and then started against Brentford last week. He didn’t quite look as sharp as he’d want to, but he should come on nicely for those minutes. Haaland is 1.44 to hit the back of the net which will prove a popular addition to any Man City bet builder. Hat-trick hero against Brentford Phil Foden is as big as 3.10 to score anytime here.
Harrison has some appeal
Everton have desperately struggled in front of goal. Dwight McNeil was their top scorer last season and could be worth looking at to score or assist at 4.50. Fresh off a goal vs Spurs, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is 5.0 to score anytime, which are generous odds for any starting striker. If Everton do hit the back of the net, it’s probably DCL or from a set piece. Therefore, Jack Harrison to score or assist at 5.0 might represent the best value for the Toffees in this market. This type of counter-attacking game might suit him.
Man City CARDS AND FOULS stats
City to keep the card count low
The visitors average less than two cards per game and are one of the cleanest teams in the Premier League. City have fouled their opponents the fewest times of any side in the Premier League this season at just 8.40 per match. This should be a walk in the park facing an opponent that doesn’t draw many fouls. It’s difficult to make a case for any City player to go into the book or even produce multiple fouls. Rodri is the only player who could be considered, but at odds of 1.22 just to commit one foul, he can easily be swerved.
Everton are one of the least fouled teams in the Premier League this season at an average of 9.20 per game. They only draw an extremely low 1.61 cards from their opponents. Sean Dyche’s men won’t have much of the ball here and the only danger for City is probably the occasional counter-attack. The other problem Everton have is a lack of pace though. Maybe the experience of someone like Ashley Young could win some cheap free kicks but the expectation is that Everton won’t draw many fouls here.
Everton cards and fouls stats
Young experience could yield foul value
The Toffees rank fourth for most fouls in the Premier League at an average of 12.5 per game. Their card count has also been increasing as the season has progressed. Ashley Young potentially coming back into the side should merit consideration in the fouls market. Young is an experienced head and the 1.25 that he commits a caution could be decent bet builder material. He’s 3.20 to be carded and other candidates in this market are Idrissa Gueye at 3.40 and possibly Jarrad Branthwaite at 4.0.
Man City draw around three cards per game from their opponents. Everton might not engage that much though and drop deeper. Both Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva could cause issues and there is now the factor of Erling Haaland to consider.
Check our Free Bets Page for the best value for money available ahead of kick-off.