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Manchester United vs Newcastle United Bet Builder Stats Pack

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Wembley plays host to the Carabao Cup final between Manchester United and Newcastle United. Erik ten Hag will be looking to start a trophy winning era at Man United by lifting silverware vs Eddie Howe’s men.

Newcastle are looking to win their first major trophy for over 50 years and swarms of Toon Army fans will be descending on the capital this weekend. Sometimes this competition is looked down upon, but there is no doubt each team will be desperate to prevail.

You can dive into my stats pack for today’s big final below which comes equipped with info on a number of metrics from the teams’ Premier League campaigns to date, including shots, fouls, cards, xG, corners to name a few. If you any help to make more sense of all of this, have a read of my Stats Pack Guide.

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Predicted Lineups

Erik ten Hag is going to have to decide who plays in the Man United front four. One of Weghorst, Sancho or Antony is going to have to miss out because Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes are locked in to start, barring any last minute injuries. Ten Hag should go with his preferred back four of Shaw, Martinez, Varane and Wan-Bissaka. 

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Newcastle are unlikely to switch from their 4-3-3 formation and the big team news is in goal where Nick Pope is suspended and Martin Dubravka is cup tied. That means former Liverpool man Loris Karius will get the gloves for this final.

Eddie Howe has a decision to make upfront where he will have to decide between Callum Wilson or Alexander Isak. The Swedish international, who cost big money last summer might just get the nod. Anthony Gordon won’t feature due to being cup tied and Joe Willock is 50/50 to be available due to injury.

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Team Stats

Man Utd average 1.71 goals per game and 1.17 goals against. They have slightly overachieved defensively considering that their xGA is 1.54. Goalkeeper David De Gea has been enjoying a strong season and is a reliable last line of defence. Man United only average 14.40 shots per match which is lower than some other big teams like City and Arsenal but have a strong SOT rate of 5.17.

Corners are of a moderate number in Man United fixtures. They surprisingly only average 4.33 per game themselves, possibly due to the fact their wide players cut inside and are inverted. The Red Devils have conceded considerably more corners at the other end (5.67). In terms of discipline they have not been lacking for cards, obtaining 2.29 in each fixture and drawing only 1.38 from the opposition. 

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Newcastle average 1.52 goals per game and just 0.65 against. They have been underachieving offensively but massively overachieving defensively considering their xGA is as big as 1.38. Goalkeeper Nick Pope is a major reason why and will be a huge miss for the Magpies here at Wembley. Newcastle only average 10.60 shots against per match which is another reason why they have a decent defensive record though.

The Tynesiders average a whopping 6.91 corners per game and just 4.30 against. They have an excellent set piece taker in Kieran Trippier, so the Toon will regularly play for corners or free kicks. Cards have flown readily in their games, averaging 1.87 themselves and 2.26 against. This is a cup final so we can expect plenty of spice and tactical fouls from both sides.

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Player Shots and Shots on Target

Marcus Rashford averages 3.04 shots per 90 mins with nearly half of them on target (1.38). Bruno Fernandes fires in 2.17 shots with a 0.74 SOT ratio. Wout Weghorst is more of a target man type attacker and only averages 1.40 shots per 90 mins.

Don’t expect him to go peppering the Newcastle goal. An interesting candidate for shots is Fred who has a poor accuracy rating but does average 2.28 attempts per game and likes to try his luck. 

Man United Stats Pack

Whoever starts upfront for Newcastle must be candidate for shots or SOTs. Alexander Isak has much better accuracy than Callum Wilson with 1.63 SOT per 90 mins, although his numbers are from more limited data. Wilson would likely fire more shots if he starts considering his 3.28 average. The duo of Saint Maximin and Almiron are two players likely shoot at goal and both average well above a couple of attempts per 90 mins. 

Newcastle Stats Pack 1

Player Goals and Assists

He failed to net against Barcelona in the Europa League 2nd leg but Marcus Rashford has been on absolute fire this season. He’s scored 14 goals and also weighed in with 3 assists. Bruno Fernandes has 5 goals and 6 assists and will be the main creative presence in the absence of Christian Eriksen. Sancho has four goals and Casemiro has a couple, in addition to three assists. 

Man United Stats Pack 1

Miguel Almiron leads Newcastle in the scoring charts with ten goals. He has been relatively quiet since the World Cup break though. The same can be said for Callum Wilson who has 7 goals but not been in amazing form which is why Isak might start ahead of him. Bruno Guimaraes is a key man for Newcastle and has weighed in with 3 goals and 3 assists. 

Newcastle Stats Pack 2

Player passes

Man United average 53% possession and it will be interesting to see how they approach this game. The most likely players to rack up the passes are Luke Shaw, Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez. The expectation is that Erik ten Hag’s men will probably have the lion’s share of possession in this cup final, the question is exactly how much?  

Man United Stats Pack 2

Newcastle average 52% possession but that is a figure which can vary from game to game. Eddie Howe is equally happy to sit back and counter attack if required and that is the likely tactical approach by the Magpies in this cup final. Four players who average close to, or above 50 passes per 9 mins are Kieran Trippier, Bruno Guimaraes, Fabien Schar and Sven Botman. Guimaraes especially is at the heart of the team and will readily get involved.

Newcastle Stats Pack 3

Manchester United Cards

The midfield trio of Casemiro, Fred and Bruno Fernandes are the clear candidates for fouls and cards.  All of them will happily accept a tactical and cynical foul to benefit the team. They will be tested by the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Almiron. Dalot or Wan-Bissaka could have their hands full with Allan Saint Maximin on the left wing.

Man United Stats Pack 3

The midfield duo of Bruno Guimaraes and Shaun Longstaff will be difficult matchups for Man Utd. Guimaraes is fouled nearly 3 times per 90 mins and he has a similar dribbling rate. Teams target him as the main man for Newcastle. Allan Saint Maximin on the left wing always has an insanely high dribbling rate of 8.02 times per 90 mins although is only fouled 1.36 times, possibly due to being too elusive.

Newcastle Stats Pack 4

Match-Ups to watch

Bruno Fernandes vs Miguel Almiron

Casemiro vs Bruno Guimaraes

Aaron Wan Bissaka vs Allan Saint Maximin

Newcastle Cards

Joelinton has 9 cards and averages 1.89 fouls per 90 mins. He is a prime candidate to go in the book here against this Man United midfield. Kieran Trippier is usually good for at least one foul per game as well.

He is a clever and experienced operator who will ‘take one for the team’ if needed. Midfield is where a lot of the action is here and Bruno Guimaraes averages 1.42 fouls per 90 mins. Fabien Schar has a tough matchup with Marcus Rashford but has a much lower foul rate (0.46).

Newcastle Stats Pack 5

The same trio of midfielders who regularly go into the book are also great at drawing fouls and cards from the opposition. Bruno Fernandes is a master of winding up the opposition and also dribbles 1.61 times per 90 mins. Fred is a surprising foul magnet and Casemiro a wise and canny operator. The highest dribbler on the list is Garnacho who is worth watching out for if he comes off the bench.

Man United Stats Pack 4

Match-Ups to watch

Joelinton vs Bruno Fernandes

Kieran Trippier vs Sancho or Rashford

Bruno Guimaraes vs Casemiro

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