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Man United v PAOK
7th November
kick off 20:00 Over 5.5 Man United Corners PAOK Goalkeeper To Make 4+ Saves Casemiro To Have 2+ Shots Manuel Ugarte To Commit 2+ Fouls
IN THIS ARTICLE…
Leg 1 : Over 5.5 Man United Corners
PAOK have had a relatively favourable opening to their Europa League but have still failed to win any of their first three matches, losing to Galatasaray, which was expected, before losing 1-0 at home to FCSB and drawing 2-2 with Viktoria Plzen.
This clash is likely to follow similar patterns to the Galatasaray game, in which the Greek side allowed nine corners to the Turkish champions. Man United are vastly superior on paper, and PAOK are likely to set up simply to defend, which should lead to a large corner total for the hosts.
Man United have taken five or more corners in eight of their 10 games in the Premier League this season and have had an average of 6.66 corners per game in the Europa League this season, with the Red Devils taking 10 corners against both Twente and Porto.
Aside from the 2-1 loss away from home against West Ham just over a week ago, Man United have had at least seven corners in all of their games against sides in the bottom half of the Premier League table, so should have little trouble racking up a similar tally against weaker opponents in PAOK here..
LEG 2 : PAOK Goalkeeper To make 4+ Saves
As noted above, PAOK have had a difficult start to their Europa League campaign. They have now required four or more saves from Dominik Kotarski in two of their three games. Kotarski has averaged 4.0 saves per game in this competition so far, making seven saves against Galatasaray and four against Viktoria Plzen, both games played on the road.
Despite serious concerns about United’s attacking play and an apparent lack of creativity, they have definitely worked the goalkeepers they have come up against this season. Ten of the Red Devil’s last 12 games in all competitions have seen the opponent’s goalkeeper making at least four saves.
That includes all three Europa League clashes so far this season, with United forcing four saves against Twente, five saves against Porto and four saves against Fenerbahce.
The hosts have had at least five shots on target in all 10 of these 12 games in which four saves were made, whilst 73.4% of their shots on target this season have been saved. That suggests their finishing has been lax, which should make it easier for Kotarski to hit the four saves mark here.
LEG 3 : Casemiro To Have 2+ Shots
The much-maligned Casemiro has had something of a hot streak in front of goal recently, bagging three goals in two games, one in the West Ham loss that proved to be Erik ten Hag’s final game in charge of the club, and two against Leicester in the EFL Cup.
Casemiro has averaged 3.57 shots per 90 in the Europa League this season, taking four shots in his start against Porto in October and one shot in 36 minutes off the bench against Fenerbahce later that same month.
That makes it five of his last six starts in which Casemiro has had at least two shots, taking three or more shots in three of these five. With five shots against Leicester, and one against Chelsea (a game which saw a low shot tally for both sides), it seems clear that Ruud van Nistelrooy is keen to get Casemiro into forward areas more.
United should dominate this game and we expect that to mean that the former Brazil international will take at least two shots here.
Leg 4 : Manuel Ugarte To Commit 2+ Fouls
Ugarte topped the charts for fouls at the weekend, racking up an enormous six fouls in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea at Old Trafford. Shockingly, that makes it twice in just six starts that Ugarte has fouled six times, as he did so against League One Barnsley in the EFL Cup. This suggests that the quality of the opposition has little bearing on the number of fouls Ugarte will commit, which makes this selection an appealing choice against PAOK.
Across his six starts, Ugarte has fouled 3.50 times per game for United, his average sitting well above the two fouls required to cash this bet. In the Premier League alone, his foul average sits at 4.76 per 90, the highest in the United squad by a distance. With Ugarte having fouled twice or more in four of these six starts, this looks easily achievable here.
He will be up against Giannis Konstantelias, who has won 1.07 fouls per 90 in the Europa League so far this season and Mohamed Camara, who has won 1.48 fouls per 90. Konstantelias won two fouls against FCSB and one against Galatasaray, whilst Camara won four fouls in 68 minutes against FCSB.
Before digging into the fruits of our Stats Pack you should check out this guide for extra information on how to extract winners from the data.
Please note that some of the data in our Stats Pack for PAOK is only from European fixtures, due to a lack of statistics available for some markets on the Greek Super League.
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