Manchester City have the bit between their teeth as they chase down their third successive Premier League title and the silverware-hungry Cityzens can tighten their grip on their crown with a victory over Leeds today – if they can absorb the visitor’s new manager bounce.
Survival specialist Sam Allardyce was typically confident in his first presser as Leeds’s new boss, however his bold claims that he is a managerial match for Pep Guardiola will be put to the test this afternoon in what could be a baptism of fire for the 68-year-old in Manchester.
Below, I’ve compiled a stats pack for this afternoon’s tussle which comes equipped with everything you need to tackle the Manchester City vs Leeds bet builder markets with enthusiasm. Have a run through of my Stats Pack Guide if you require any extra assistance.
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Manchester City vs Leeds confirmed Lineups
Will Kevin De Bruyne feature against Leeds?
Belgian schemer Kevin De Bruyne has been forced to watch City’s last two games from the stands and the midfielder remains a slight doubt ahead of today’s game. Pep Guardiola has a strong squad to pick from elsewhere however, with few other fitness worries to trouble him.
Stefan Otega – who started between the sticks against West Ham in midweek – could lose his place to first-choice stopper Ederson, while Phil Foden will hope that his goal against the Hammers will earn him a first start since March. Leeds-born Haaland should spearhead the City attack again.
Allardyce without Sinisterra for City trip
Though Sam Allardyce is a dedicated 4-4-2 devotee, it’s hard to say whether Leeds will line up in that more traditional structure at The Etihad Stadium today, and a 4-2-3-1 shape could be favoured instead. Liam Cooper, Stuart Dallas, Luis Sinisterra and Tyler Adams are all in the treatment room and won’t be part of Big Sam’s first fixture, however.
Allardyce tends to favour hard-working, more physical players, so Adam Forshaw could be drafted into midfield. Patrick Bamford could lead the attack with Jack Harrison tucked in behind, while Wilfried Gnonto and Crysencio Summerville could be deployed on the flanks.
Manchester City vs Leeds Team Stats
City’s ferocious firepower
Man City’s blistering form continued on Wednesday evening when they put three goals without reply past West Ham and the Cityzens have excelled across a myriad of attacking metrics for most of the Premier League campaign.
At The Etihad Stadium, the title favourites have been particularly explosive and City have scored at least three times in seven of their last eight league assignments there. The hosts look like good value at 4/9 to cover a -1.0 goal handicap for the ninth home game in a row today.
Leeds’s leaky defence a worry
Sam Allardyce won’t like the look of Leeds’s defensive record – which is the division’s worst (67 goals) – though he could struggle to batten down the hatches at City today having had little time to work with his new charges.
Leeds have been collecting 2.29 cards per 90 this term, and their aggression levels are unlikely to drop with Big Sam calling the shots. With some heavy tackles and renewed enthusiasm expected to be on show, the visitors could be worth a look to collect over 2.5 cards at 11/10 today. With Leeds likely to be on the back foot for most of this afternoon’s skirmish, backing them at 4/11 to win under 3.5 corners is also an attractive-looking prospect.
Manchester City vs Leeds Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Look beyond Haaland for better value
Erling Haaland’s output has been frightening this season, though squeezing the Norwegian as an option in the shot markets into your Manchester City bet builder doesn’t add too much value at the skinny prices on offer.
Instead, Jack Grealish – who hit five shots against Leeds in December – could be a better fit at 1/2 to clock 1+ attempts on target today. Defender Nathan Ake could be an outside contender in the same market at 13/5. The Dutchman, who is a magnet for the ball in the box from set plays, managed to get a shot on target in two of his last three appearances for City.
Leeds to threaten from set pieces?
Leeds managed to muster just a single shot on target when they lost 3-1 to Man City in Yorkshire in December, though that effort did come via Pascal Strujik’s head from a corner and set pieces seem like Leeds’s likeliest route to success again today.
To that end, 6’3″ centre-half Robin Koch, who had an attempt on target in Leeds’s last game against Bournemouth, catches the eye to have one or more shots this afternoon 15/8. There’s no need for any accuracy here, just one hit from the German will do the job.
Manchester vs Leeds Player Goals and Assists Stats
Record-breaking Haaland an easy inclusion
Erling Haaland is almost certain to be one of the first names in most Manchester City vs Leeds bet builder constructed today and the Norwegian hotshot – who notched a brace against the Yorkshiremen at the end of December – is 1/3 to net anytime today, or 6/4 to smash home two or more goals. Either price looks favourable there.
Haaland broke the record for most goals scored in a Premier League season in midweek, though the 22-year-old needs passes to convert and Jack Grealish set up both of his goals at Elland Road just before the turn of the year. The 27-year-old is priced at even money to add to his seven assists for the campaign today.
Leeds to toil in attack at The Etihad Stadium?
As we touched on above, Leeds scored from their only shot on target when they lost to Man City in December and with Sam Allardyce likely to set up to stifle in the return fixture in Manchester this afternoon, United’s goal-scoring threat could be minimal again.
Five different players combined to score Leeds’s last six Premier League goals on the road, so adding an anytime goal-scorer from their ranks to your Leeds bet builder feels like a bit of a prod in the dark. It probably makes more sense to leave this one alone.
Manchester City vs Leeds Player Passing Stats
Rodri to pull the strings again?
He might not dominate headlines as much as his teammates, but Rodri is the glue that holds the City team together and the Spanish midfielder hit another 178 passes in his last two Premier League appearances combined to keep his averages for the campaign high.
Rodri played 95 passes when Man City controlled 69% of the ball against Leeds in December and the 26-year-old is 2/7 to beat a 90+ pass target again today. Backline staple, Manuel Akanji, – who topped 90 passes in four of his last eight starts in all competitions – is 4/9 in the same market, and with City likely to dominate proceedings, that’s a hurdle the defender should clear with room to spare making him another solid pick for your Manchester City bet builder.
Sam Allardyce will have told his troops to expect lengthy swathes without the ball today and like the majority of Man City’s opponents, Leeds’s share of possession should be in and around the 30% mark at The Etihad Stadium, just like it was when the teams met at Elland Road in December.
In that clash before Christmas, holding midfielder Marc Roca played more passes than most of his teammates, though his tally of 35 was still incredibly modest. Roca is priced at 1/12 to top 30 passes in today’s rematch, which highlights the lack of value on offer here. Let’s keep going on our search for bet builder tips.
Manchester City Cards and Fouls Stats
Look to Rodri and Gundogan for tactical fouls
Only West Ham (42) have collected fewer Premier League cards (44) than Man City this season, though Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan can generally be relied upon in the fouls markets, even if their disciplinary records are relatively clean.
Rodri (four) and Gundogan (three) committed seven fouls between them against Leeds in December, and while their defensive workload might not be quite so heavy today, they pique my interest at 10/11 and 3/10 in the 2+ and 1+ fouls stakes respectively. Erling Haaland meanwhile, can often give free kicks away while competing for balls in the air, making him a useful option at 1/3 in the same domain as Gundogan.
Leeds duo Marc Roca and Weston McKennie form a combative duo in midfield, though they are just as likely to be on the end of some robust challenges as they are to dish them out with Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan lurking.
The physically imposing Robin Koch could be tasked with shackling Erling Haaland during set pieces and the latter’s attempts to dominate his marker could produce fouls. Koch was fouled once when Leeds were toppled by Man City in December.
Match-Ups to watch
Rodri vs Marc Roca
Ilkay Gundogan vs Weston McKennie
Erling Haaland vs Robin Koch
Leeds Cards and Fouls Stats
Sam Allardyce is likely to send his new charges out with instructions to unsettle City’s rhythm and Leeds’s players’ tackles could be sharper as a consequence. The aforementioned Marc Roca and Weston McKennie, who have collected 13 Premier League cautions between them this season, catch the eye at 11/4 and 23/10 in the card market again today.
Roca should also interest a few at 11/10 in the 2+ fouls realm, having sinned twice against City in December. A little further back, Luke Ayling has the unenviable task of marking foul-magnet Jack Grealish. Few of the winger’s opponents finish a game without conceding a least a couple of black marks on their record, and the Leeds defender is a tasty prospect at even money to commit 2+ fouls in Manchester.
If Kevin De Bruyne is fit enough to feature, Sam Allardyce will be keen to impress the importance of putting the squeeze on the creative Belgian to his own players. Prolific fouler Marco Roca could have a remit to kick the City schemer this afternoon.
Beside him Ilkay Gundogan could be knocked about by bustling American Weston McKennie in the pair’s midfield skirmishes. On the flank, the inventive Jack Grealish’s bag of tricks could suck Luke Ayling into some potentially treacherous one-on-one situations.
Match-Ups to watch
Marc Roca vs Kevin De Bruyne
Weston McKennie vs Ilkay Gundogan
Luke Ayling vs Jack Grealish
Man City vs Leeds Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
Using the stats from above, there’s a few selections that stand out as really good value that you can add to your bet slip as a bet builder below.
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Manchester City vs Leeds
6th May
kick off 15:00 Man City -1 handicap
City are on an absolute tear right now. They’ve won 9 straight Premier League matches and the title is now firmly in their hands.
At home they’ve won 15/17. Scoring 57 goals in the process and conceding just 16.
They’ve won their last 8 PL home games by a -1 handicap.
Sam Allardyce is in the driving seat for Leeds now and this is somewhat of a baptism of fire. I’m sure he’ll make them more solid, but for me, nothing can save how dreadful defensively Leeds are; their back line simply isn’t good enough.
On top of that, Meslier has been horrendous in recent weeks and now has to try and fend off the league’s most potent attack.
Leeds have conceded 18 times across their last 5 matches. Including conceding 5 to Palace, 6 to Liverpool and 4 last week to Bournemouth. City should breeze past them.
Over 8.5 cornersCity take an average of 6.82 corners at home, with their games at The Etihad average a total of 9 match corners. Right on the money.
Leeds games average 9.82 corners and they ship nearly 5 on the road each game. They do earn a decent number though, well above 5 on average.
I’ve gone for match corners here rather than City corners alone as I think Leeds can definitely contribute, especially under Allardyce.
The big man will set them up to go as direct as possible, as often as possible and play for set pieces wherever they can. I’m sure that’s something he’ll place plenty of emphasis on.
Leeds over 1.5 cardsWhat won’t change under big Sam is Leeds discipline. In fact, it might manage to get even worse. He’ll be wanting them to get stuck right in and not roll over as they have been doing so regularly of late.
Leeds pick up an average of 2.47 cards per game on the road. They’ve had 2 or more bookings in 76% of their away matches.
City draw an average of 2.18 cards per game and no side has left the Etihad this season without entering the referee’s notebook.
Leeds got themselves 3 cards in the reverse fixture at Elland Road.
Ilkay Gundogan 1+ shots on targetTough to find decent value in City games, especially at home to a side in such dreadful form but I think Gundogan is a good pick here.
Gundo will play in that advanced midfield role off of the central striker.
When they met earlier in the season he had 4 shots, including 1 on target.
He’s had 1+ SOT in 3 of his last 4 PL games.
Leeds concede an average of 4.56 SOT per game.
