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Man City vs Man United
15th December
kick off 16:30 Over 3.5 Goals Over 6.5 Man City Corners Amad Diallo To Have 1+ Shots On Target Bruno Fernandes To Commit 1+ Fouls
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Leg 1: Over 3.5 Goals
Goals have been a feature of Manchester derbies since 2022, with all 7 of their competitive meetings in the Premier League and FA Cup seeing at least 3 goals. Four or more goals have been scored in 3 of those 7, and this clash looks like it could certainly reach those levels again.
This bet would have landed in 4 of Man City’s last 8 games, with 3+ goals being seen in 8 of City’s last 10. Pep Guardiola’s side have been awful defensively across this run, shipping 2 or more goals in 9 of these 10 games. They have also managed to score 2 or more goals themselves in 3 of their last 5.
Man United have seen 4+ goals scored in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions. They have also conceded 2 goals against Arsenal and 3 against Nottingham Forest in their last 2 games. It is hard to see either team keeping a clean sheet, and with both sides desperate for a win in what will be a huge game for both sides, 4 or more goals look highly possible, and well worth backing at evens.
Leg 2: Over 6.5 Man City Corners
Backing corners for Man City has been a smart bet all season, even as their results have really begun to fall apart. No Premier League side has taken more corners than City’s 8.73 per game this season, a total of 131 across their 15 league games.
Pep Guardiola’s side have failed to beat this line in just 4 of their Premier League games this season, all of which came in tricky away ties, against Chelsea, Newcastle, Brighton, and Liverpool. They have taken a minimum of 8 corners in all 7 of their home league fixtures so far this campaign, which includes 9 in their 4-0 loss against Tottenham, and 8 in their 2-2 draw with Arsenal.
United have not given away too many corners this season, however, the strong record of City in this regard means we are not too concerned with that. They have also recently conceded 13 corners to Arsenal away from home and have allowed 8 corners in games against Chelsea and Fulham.
Leg 3: Amad Diallo To Have 1+ Shots On Target
Amad Diallo has been one of the major beneficiaries of the appointment of Ruben Amorim, with the Ivory Coast international starting 3 of Man United’s 4 Premier League games under the new boss, and coming on at half time in the one game he did not start.
Diallo has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 5 games, and should relish playing right wing-back against Man City’s left side here. The suspension of Rico Lewis means left-back Josko Gvardiol will be asked to step into midfield, leaving space for the youngster to attack.
Averaging 0.87 shots on target per 90, behind only Rasmus Hojlund (0.88) and Alejandro Garnacho (1.56) in the likely starting XI for this game, Diallo will be full of confidence having scored or assisted in 5 straight starts for the club.
Against a Man City backline regularly conceding 2 goals per game and allowing 4+ shots on target in 8 of their last 10, he looks well placed to test the goalkeeper at least once, and is priced attractively at 1.91 to do so.
LEG 4: Bruno Fernandes TO cOMMIT 1+ foULS
No player committed more Premier League fouls per 90 for Manchester United than Casemiro. The Brazilian midfielder racked up 1.36 per 90 and committed five fouls in his last six appearances at the end of last season.
He has had the summer off and should be one of the more fully-fit players on the pitch, so will be asked to keep tabs on Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva, who drew 0.96 and 0.91 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season.
De Bruyne won a foul in both of his starts against Man United last season, and in six of his last seven club appearances, whilst Bernardo Silva won fouls in three of his last four league games for Man City and won two fouls against United in their last league meeting at the Etihad.
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Man City vs Man United Predicted Lineups
Man City vs Man United Team Stats
Man City vs Man United shots and shots on target stats
Man City vs Man United goals and assists stats
Man City CARDS AND FOULS stats
Man United cards and fouls stats
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