Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur are licking their wounds after disappointing derby day defeats, though both teams have a shot at earning instant redemption when they collide at The Etihad Stadium this evening.
With an eight-point deficit to make up on pace-setters Arsenal at the Premier League’s summit, only a victory will suffice for Pep Guardiola’s defending champions today, while Spurs are in desperate need of their own pick-me-up as their top four hopes begin to fade.
Below, you can dive into my stats pack for this evening’s skirmish which has the lowdown on metrics from xG to shots, corners to cards and more from the teams’ Premier League campaigns to date. Use the info presented below in unison with my Stats Pack Guide to aid your pursuit of a winning bet builder.
Predicted Lineups
Central defenders Ruben Dias and John Stones are inching towards a return; however, today’s game could come too soon for both. Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji could continue as a pair at the heart of the City defence against Spurs, though Aymeric Laporte will want to be part of the conversation.
Pep Guardiola could choose to shuffle his pack a little further up the pitch after the weekend’s derby defeat. Ilkay Gundogan, Jack Grealish and Julian Alvarez will be among those hoping to be drafted into the City XI.
Antonio Conte is unlikely to spring any tactical surprises against City today. Uruguayan schemer Rodrigo Bentancur wasn’t risked against Arsenal on Sunday, though he should be back in contention to start in midfield this evening.
Hugo Lloris will hope he is in less calamitous form between the sticks, while Dejan Kulusevski, Heung-min Son and Harry Kane will be determined to threaten for the full 90 instead of just 45 minutes this time around.
Team Stats
Manchester City still rank first in the Premier League for xG, shots and goals per 90 this season, though their output in the final third has been dwindling of late and it’s difficult to put your finger on why a drop-off has occurred.
In four of their last five assignments in league and cup, City mustered three or fewer shots on target and they racked up just one accurate attempt in total in their last two games against Southampton and Man Utd.
Defensively, the champions have been giving little away for the most part, though they did concede their second-highest xG of the campaign against rivals United on Saturday (1.98).
Tottenham’s performances this season under Antonio Conte haven’t been passing the eye test and even when they manage to carve out victories, they tend to fly by the seat of their pants for the most part.
Their stats for and against across a number of metrics are well-matched enough to suggest most of their fixtures have been on a knife edge, though Spurs were very much second-best in Sunday’s North London derby against Arsenal.
Tottenham’s matches have been chock-full of cards this term and they’ve been collecting roughly twice as many of them as City. Spurs are priced at 6/4 in the markets to pick up over 2.5 cards today.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Erling Haaland remains the master of two metrics in the shooting department for City overall, though his teammates have been struggling to create chances for the Norwegian of late and insanely, the 22-year-old has mustered one or fewer shots on target from open play in eight of his last nine appearances for the Sky Blues in all competitions.
Several of Haaland’s City teammates, including Ilkay Gundogan (8/11), Jack Grealish (8/11) and Bernardo Silva (1/1) look like far better prospects in terms of value to notch at least one shot on target against Tottenham today. Silva racked up four attempts when City last hosted Spurs in the Premier League (Feb 22).
When searching out shot market options for Tottenham, you generally don’t have to dig much deeper than Harry Kane and Son Heung-min and that dynamic duo were very much to the fore against Arsenal at the weekend in terms of raw numbers, when they racked up nine attempts between them.
Man City have struggled to contain the impactful Spurs sidekicks in recent encounters between the clubs. Kane had three shots on target when Tottenham upset the odds to beat City at The Etihad last year, while Son had five attempts when Spurs shocked the Cityzens again in August 2021.
Harry Kane (1/2) and Son Heung-min (8/11) are available at eye-catching prices to hit at least one shot on target this evening.
Player Goals and Assists
With Erling Haaland in the midst of a dry spell by his own lofty standards, Riyad Mahrez could represent a better option to score anytime at 7/5 this evening. The Algerian winger rattled the net three times in his last four appearances and he should have space to operate with no traditional style fullback marking him today.
Kevin de Bruyne lodged his tenth Premier League assist of an increasingly-creative campaign in the Manchester Derby and the Belgian maestro, who has more shot-creating-actions than any other player in the division this term (107), can be backed at 10/11 to lay on another goal later on.
Harry Kane and Son Heung-min always seem to set knees knocking in the Manchester City defence, and Tottenham’s talismanic pair finished the game with two goals and two assists when Spurs last players and won at The Etihad Stadium a little over a year ago.
Son hasn’t looked himself for most of the current campaign, however, his seven previous career goals against City is a fearsome record and the South Korean is 9/2 to either score or assist this evening. His more productive partner in crime, Harry Kane, is a whopping 6/1 in the same market.
While Son has floundered a little in the final third this term, Kane has been his usual devastating self. The former Man City transfer target has scored three times in four matches since the club campaign’s resumption.
Player passes
Man City remain the Premier League’s most dominant outfit in terms of average possession per game and despite losing Saturday’s derby to United, they controlled a huge 70.6% of the ball at Old Trafford.
The Cityzens will expect to hit similar heights today and Rodri (8/11), Nathan Ake (6/5) and Manuel Akanji (evens) are all capable of hitting over 90 passes for the second game running when they face Tottenham this evening.
Tottenham emerged as victors from their last trip to play Man City despite posting a meagre 28.8% possession the game and Antonio Conte’s side are almost certain to reprise their role as counter attackers today.
Just four of their players breached the 40 passes ceiling at The Etihad Stadium last year, so don’t expect any of Tottenham’s stars to hit big distribution figures later on. Harry Kane finished that clash with 28 passes however, and the England international can be added to your bet builder at odds of 9/2 to play a slightly higher 30 or more passes today.
Manchester City Cards
Man City are officially the Premier League’s cleanest outfit and they didn’t add a single card to their pile in Saturday’s Manchester Derby.
However, City trio Rodri, Joao Cancelo and Manuel Ajanji could be on heightened alert today against a Tottenham frontline that knows how to cause problems for their sky-blue-clad markers. Rodri and Cancelo in particular are two of Pep Guardiola’s preferred assassins when teams counter on City.
In Harry Kane, Dejan Kulusevski and Son Heung-min, Tottenham have an array of very different weapons in their armoury and all three of their forwards can be nuisances for City today.
Kane should have Rodri (11/4 to be carded) breathing down his neck when he comes deep to link play, while Son’s direct running through the middle could unsettle Manuel Akanji (9/2). Joao Cancelo (11/4) meanwhile, has a different sort of test in store against the feints and swerves of Kulusevski.
Match-Ups to watch
Rodri vs Harry Kane
Joao Cancelo vs Dejan Kulusevski
Manuel Akanji vs Son Heung-min
Tottenham Hotspur Cards
Ryan Sessegnon (4/1 to be carded) is enjoying an extended run in the side down Tottenham’s left flank and while his energetic style appeals to Antonio Conte, his defensive acumen should be given a stern shake by Riyad Mahrez this evening.
Hot-headed Cristian Romero (17/10), who has already been carded three times this season, faces the quick feet of Phil Foden, while Rodrigo Bentancur (13/8) could be one to earmark in midfield if he is fit enough to play. The Uruguayan is a combative presence in the middle for Spurs and they will need every inch of his steely play to keep Kevin de Bruyne shackled.
Phil Foden (fouled 1.38 times per 90) will be itching to make an impact after a watery display in the derby and he will fancy his chances of getting the better of Cristian Romero. No-nonsense defender Romero was booked when Tottenham last played at The Etihad Stadium.
Riyad Mahrez’s close control down the City right could draw Ryan Sessegnon into action. The Spurs wing-back doesn’t always time his tackles well, as evidenced by his high card count.
Tottenham will hope to neutralise Kevin de Bruyne as much as possible later today and Bentanctur could be instructed to shadow him closely in the capital.
Match-Ups to watch
Ryan Sessegnon vs Riyad Mahrez
Cristian Romero vs Phil Foden
Rodrigo Bentancur vs Kevin de Bruyne
