Manchester United and Brentford collide in what should be a competitive Premier League clash under the lights at Old Trafford this evening, where the hosts will be aiming to exact some revenge for the stinging early season defeat inflicted on them by the Bees.
Brentford walloped four goals without reply past United in what was Erik ten Hag’s second game in charge back in August, and the Londoners will believe they pack enough of a punch to provide another stern test for a United side that has looked flat since the Carabao Cup Final.
You can delve into my stats pack for this evening’s fixture below which contains everything you need to construct smarter bet builders for the game. Make sure to check out my Stats Pack Guide if you need some extra pointers.
Predicted Lineups
With Casemiro still suspended, Erik ten Hag must choose two from Scott McTominay, Marcel Sabitzer and Fred to fill his midfield, though Fred has a good chance of making the cut this time having been benched at Newcastle. Christian Eriksen made a welcome return to training this week, though the former Brentford star won’t be available here.
Anthony Martial could start up front ahead of Wout Weghorst, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka could be involved after a bout of illness. Jadon Sancho is likely to be kept in reserve yet again with Antony favoured on the right flank.
Kristoffer Ajer and Keane Lewis-Potter are confirmed absentees for Brentford at present, while Vitaly Janelt is considered a major doubt with a knee issue. Shandon Baptiste is available again following a ban, however.
Josh Dasilva, Mathias Jensen, Ben Mee and Brian Mbuemo all scored against Man Utd in August and all four players should be involved again in this evening’s rematch at Old Trafford. Thomas Frank could use a 3-5-2 or a 4-3-3 formation later on.
Team Stats
Man Utd have been making strides in several statistical departments under new boss Erik ten Hag this season, though they were blown away by Newcastle last weekend in a worryingly abject display in which they conceded 22 shots and an xG of 3.7 – their highest of the campaign to date.
The Red Devils have been doing most of their best work at Old Trafford, where they are averaging 16.6 shots per game. United haven’t been performing all that well in the corner stakes this term and they won just two to Brentford’s eight when the teams last met in August. The Bees are of interest at 5/6 in the +2 corner handicap market this evening.
Brentford are on course for a top half Premier League finish this term and despite collecting seven fewer points, the Bees have outgunned Man Utd this season in terms of goals per 90 (1.64 – 1.52). Thomas Frank’s troops have posted lower xG for figures than their hosts this evening, however.
Interestingly, only Bournemouth have been conceding more attempts per 90 than Brentford in 2022/23, however, the Bees have lost just once in their last 16 league fixtures. No side has drawn more often than the Bees (13), while both teams to score has landed in 57% of their top tier contests since August, which is the division’s joint-third highest figure.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Man Utd were remarkably ineffectual in attack against Newcastle last weekend, mustering just six shots in total, though Brazilian Antony accounted for two of those, even if both efforts were meek.
The 23-year-old has his critics, but he is a strong performer from a bet-building perspective, hitting at least one effort on target in five of his last seven runouts for United. Antony is priced at 3/10 to land at least one accurate strike this evening, which is far better value than Marcus Rashford (1/6) in the same market.
Ivan Toney continues to be a major handful for Premier League defences and the striker, who has been hitting 2.71 shots and 1.08 shots on target per 90 this term, lodged three more accurate attempts at Brighton last weekend.
The 27-year-old looks like excellent value at 4/9 in the 1+ shots on target market again today, while midfielder Mathias Jensen, who has had at least one shot in nine of his last 12 appearances for club and country, can be added to your coupon at 8/13 to register 1+ attempts.
Player Goals and Assists
Man Utd’s overreliance on Marcus Rashford in attack has been well documented and the 25-year-old’s inability to score in any of his last three Premier League appearances resulted in his team failing to register completely.
Rashford has claimed eight goal contributions in his last ten runouts at Old Trafford in all competitions however, and the wide attacker remains the host’s likeliest candidate to either score or assist at 4/6 today. Fit-again Anthony Martial meanwhile, has averaged a goal or assist every 85 minutes this season and the Frenchman is 8/11 in the same market as Rashford.
Ivan Toney is way out on his own as Brentford’s leading marksman this season with 17 goals, though the 27-year-old provided two assists when the Bees demolished United 4-0 in the campaign’s early throes. Toney is a generous 7/5 to either score or assist again today.
United found it hard to nail down the quicksilver Bryan Mbeumo in that 4-0 drubbing in August and the Cameroonian winger, who pocketed two assists at Brighton last weekend, is in good form. The 23-year-old is another strong option at 2-1 in the score/assist market this evening.
Player passes
Man Utd controlled 66.7% of the possession when they lost at Brentford earlier in the season and they will expect to enjoy two third of the ball again in this evening’s return fixture. However, the best prices for prolific passers like Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw are in the 70+ passes range – a target that could be too rich for both.
Instead, right-back Diogo Dalot could be a better choice at 8/15 to cap 50+ passes today. The Portuguese defender hit at least 60 passes in four of his last starts for United and he has a decent shot at clearing that barrier again today.
Brentford’s possession figure was a modest 33.3% when they counter-attacked their way to glory against Man Utd in August and the Bees are almost certain to adopt a similar gameplan at Old Trafford later on.
That makes picking out passing options from their ranks a difficult task, though a low target of 30+ passes for Mathias Jensen is of interest a 1/4. The Dane has been averaging 35.2 passes per 90 this term.
Manchester United Cards and Fouls
Bustling Brazilian Fred could be recalled to the United team this evening and the 30-year-old, who has been averaging 2.11 fouls per 90 this term, is backable at 1/2 to commit at least two more against Brentford.
Luke Shaw meanwhile, who sinned twice at Brentford in August is 10/11 in the same market, while Bruno Fernandes, who recorded three fouls against the Bees in the same game, could be a useful coupon padder at 1/4 to commit 1+ indiscretions. United’s skipper has been the picture of frustration and petulance in recent weeks.
Josh Dasilva (fouled 1.50 times per 90) is a movement machine and his running power and ability to cover grass should make him a real nuisance for United foul merchant Fred today. On the right flank, Aaron Hickey has been winning plenty of free kicks with his lung-busting surges forward. The Scot has been fouled 2.03 times per 90 this season and he could trouble prolific fouler Luke Shaw.
Christian Norgaard (1.04) is known for his battling qualities in midfield and the reliable Dane has a skillset robust enough to ruffle Bruno Fernandes’s feathers. The latter could air his frustrations in the form of ankle nips again this evening.
Match-Ups to watch
Fred vs Josh Dasilva
Luke Shaw vs Aaron Hickey
Bruno Fernandes vs Christian Norgaard
Brentford Cards and Fouls
Ivan Toney is never shy about using his physical prowess to knock opposing centre-halves around and the powerful centre forward could attach himself to the more diminutive Lisandro Martinez today. That has the potential to be an explosive head-to-head and Toney is 8/13 to commit 2+ fouls later on.
Aaron Hickey is a threat going forward, though his tackling could be sharper in terms of timing and the 20-year-old, who was booked for the sixth time this season at Brighton last weekend, is 12/5 to enter the referee’s notebook again today. Christian Norgaard is the Bees’ chief disruptor in midfield and the Dane committed two fouls in a combative display versus United in August. Norgaard could be a smart inclusion at 11/10 to commit at least two more later on.
Bruno Fernandes’s tussle with Christian Norgaard has the potential to produce fouls and cards in both directions later on. The Portuguese schemer has been fouled 1.08 times per 90 this season and he can expect more punishment this evening.
Marcus Rashford will hope to use his searing pace to get beyond Aaron Hickey at Old Trafford and the inexperienced Scot could resort to nefarious means to limit his marker’s influence on proceedings. Lisandro Martinez meanwhile faces a strenuous test against the burly Ivan Toney.
Match-Ups to watch
Ivan Toney vs Lisandro Martinez
Aaron Hickey vs Marcus Rashford
Christian Norgaard vs Bruno Fernandes
My bet builder picks of the pack
If this one is anything like the 4-0 fixture that we saw back in August, then we’re in for a treat. This game really could be great for a bet builder, ad I certainly have my eyes on a few selections.
I’ll be going live with my own bet upon team news, so make sure to check out my Live Tips Page so that you can keep up to date with this bet, as well as my others.
