Manchester United and Everton go head-to-head in today’s lunchtime kick-off at Old Trafford where the antagonists will battle it out for three crucial Premier League points.
The relegation-threatened Toffees will be determined to push their unbeaten run to five matches at their host’s expense, while United need a victory of their own to strengthen their pursuit of a top-four finish.
As per the usual routine, I’ve laid out my stats pack for today’s contest below, which should equip you with everything you need to approach the bet builder markets with more confidence. Use the data below in conjunction with my Stats Pack Guide for better results.
Confirmed Lineups
Brazilian midfielder Casemiro serves the final game of his four-match suspension today, while Alejandro Garnacho is still nursing an ankle injury and misses out. Christian Eriksen returned to training this week and on Friday, Erik ten Hag revealed that the Dane will join the squad against Everton.
Anthony Martial will hope to earn a first start since his return to fitness, while Wout Weghorst could be left on the bench again after Marcus Rashford spearheaded the United attack and scored against Brentford on Wednesday evening. Luke Shaw misses out with a hamstring strain.
Abdoulaye Doucouré was sent off against Tottenham on Monday night at Goodison Park and the midfielder will sit today’s game out through suspension as a result. Andros Townsend is still injured, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin is rated as doubtful as he steps up his recovery from a thigh complaint.
Ellis Simms plays instead of Doucouré, playing up top with Demarai Gray in a Sean Dyche signature 4-4-2. Man Utd academy members Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil both start against their former side.
Team Stats
Manchester United have been posting modest stats in the final third this season and the Red Devils rank sixth for shots and seventh for shots on target per 90 in the division. Defensively, United have the second-worst record in the top seven in terms of overall numbers, however, only Newcastle (13) have kept more clean sheets (12).
Erik ten Hag’s side have been aggressive this term, collecting 63 cards in total and they picked up another three of them against Brentford on Wednesday evening. Everton have amassed slightly more across the campaign, so expect heavy tackles from both teams today. Over 3.5 cards looks like good value at odds of 8/11 at Old Trafford.
Everton have been struggling at both ends of the pitch this season and the Toffees are the Premier League’s joint-lowest goalscorers and the division’s third-worst performers in terms of shots conceded per 90.
The Merseysiders also have the third-highest xG against per 90 figures in the top tier and Everton have lost the xG battle in five of their last six Premier League outings. Interestingly, Everton’s corner haul (129) for the campaign is only one shy of Man Utd’s tally (130) since the start of the season. The visitors are available at 2/5 to win over 2.5 corners today, which is a modest target to beat.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Manchester United clocked 18 attempts against Brentford on Wednesday, though they hit the target with just three of those efforts, and apart from Marcus Rashford, they have few accurate shooters in their ranks.
The 25-year-old is a snip at even money to lodge at least two shots on target today, just like he did on Wednesday and in United’s 3-1 FA Cup victory over Everton at the Theatre of Dreams in January. Winger Antony, who had five efforts in midweek, could also be worth a look at 1/3 to register 3+ attempts today.
Stand-in striker Demarai Gray was a little isolated at times on Monday evening, though Everton did offer a threat from other areas of the pitch against Spurs, particularly from set pieces and defenders Ben Godfrey, James Tarkowski and Michael Keane clocked five shots between them at Goodison Park.
Sean Dyche will hope to trouble United from set pieces today and that opens up some interesting avenues in the markets with Tarkowksi and Keane priced at 1/2 and 8/11 respectively to have just one attempt over the course of the contest.
Player Goals and Assists
If Marcus Rashford doesn’t score, United tend to struggle in the goal-getting department and the 25-year-old notched his 28th goal of the campaign in all competitions when he dispatched the winner against Brentford on Wednesday.
Rashford claimed a goal and an assist when United beat Everton 3-1 in a January cup clash, and he also put in the cross that forced an own goal from Conor Coady. At 4/6 to bag another goal or assist in today’s rematch, Rashford remains the prime candidate in the markets for United.
Demarai Gray is Everton’s leading scorer in the Premier League this season with four goals, though the 26-year-old has notched just once since early January, and he didn’t look completely comfortable filling in as a striker against Tottenham on Monday.
Again, it makes more sense to look back down the pitch for players likelier to make an impact for Everton. Brentford troubled United from set-pieces in midweek and James Tarkowski – who has scored at Old Trafford before during his Burnley days – is a big 14/1 to repeat that feat later on.
Player passes
Man Utd enjoyed 64.7% of the possession against Brentford on Wednesday evening and the Red Devils will expect to control proceedings at home to an Everton side that are more comfortable as counter-attackers today.
The usual suspects like Lisandro Martinez (78) and Diogo Dalot (66) posted strong passing numbers against the Bees, though Bruno Fernandes was the standout in a more deep midfield role than normal, pinging a game-high 96 passes around in total. Bruno could be redeployed in that withdrawn playmaker position again today, and he looks like top value at 17/10 to beat a 70+ passes target.
Everton posted a possession figure of just 39.3% against Tottenham on Monday and the Toffees have had less than 40% of the ball in four of their last five Premier League fixtures. Only two of their players (Alex Iwobi 45, Idrissa Gueye 47) hit more than 40 passes against Spurs, so don’t expect big numbers from any blue-clad combatant in the distribution stakes today.
Michael Keane and Idrissa Gueye could be of interest in the 30+ passes range later on, though the value has to be right and prices do look skinny. Interestingly, keeper Jordan Pickford (28) played more passes than four of Everton’s starting outfielders on Monday.
Manchester United Cards and Fouls
Scott McTominay is generally a walking card for United and the Scottish midfielder is a real favourite with bettors as a consequence. The 26-year-old was carded again in midweek and despite starting just nine times in the Premier League this term, he has been cautioned seven times.
McTominay is a massive 11/4 to see yellow again today, while Bruno Fernandes looks like a nice coupon filler beside him at 1/4 to commit 1+ fouls. At left back, Tyrell Malacia should start in place of Luke Shaw, who came off in midweek with a hamstring scare. The Dutch defender ranks high for fouls per 90 and the 23-year-old is 4/6 to commit at least two of them today.
Amadou Onana has been fouled 1.80 times per 90 for Everton this season and the in-demand Belgian midfielder’s tussles with Scott McTominay today should be intense physical battles. Similarly, Idrissa Gueye (1.91) should be embroiled in some spicy altercations with Bruno Fernandes.
Demarai Gray (1.72) could start at centre-forward again today, though as evidenced on Monday, his natural inclination is still to head for the flank. He could run into United foul-machine Tyrell Malacia if he drifts in that direction again at Old Trafford.
Match-Ups to watch
Scott McTominay vs Amadou Onana
Bruno Fernandes vs Idrissa Gueye
Tyrell Malacia vs Demarai Gray
Everton Cards and Fouls
Amadou Onana and Idrissia Gueye both committed one foul each when Everton visited Old Trafford in January, while Onana racked up three indiscretions when the Toffees last played United in the league back in October.
Onana could be a solid inclusion to commit 2+ fouls again this afternoon at 4/7, while Gueye could be worth watching at 10/11 in the same market. Elsewhere, Seamus Coleman had a really tough time of it against the Red Devils just after the New Year and the veteran fullback looks coupon-worthy at evens in the 1+ fouls stakes later on.
Bruno Fernandes has been one of United’s most-fouled players this term and the Portuguese schemer should be on Amadou Onana’s radar today. Marcel Sabitzer saw plenty of action as an advanced number eight on Wednesday and the impactful Austrian could have his shinpads tested by Everton’s Idrissa Gueye today.
Marcus Rashford had Seamus Coleman on toast in January, and Everton’s 34-year-old skipper might unleash the more cynical aspects of his game in today’s rematch in his attempts to limit Rashford’s impact. Jadon Sancho could be chosen to play on the left with Rashford pushed more centrally, however, Coleman’s task should be difficult either way.
Match-Ups to watch
Amadou Onana vs Bruno Fernandes
Idrissa Gueye vs Marcel Sabitzer
Seamus Coleman vs Marcus Rashford
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Keep an eye out on my Live Tips Page. I’ll be using the stats packs today to pick my own bet builder for each of them.
