Fresh from qualifying for the Champions League, Man United face Fulham at Old Trafford in the final matchday. United need to win to guarantee third spot but their attention is likely to be on next week’s FA Cup final against Manchester City. Fulham are completely landlocked in 10th position and are guaranteed that exact spot. It has been an excellent campaign for Marco Silva’s men as they look to finish on a high.
It’s the final game of the season, and with jobs done, I’m expecting players on both sides of the pitch to let loose and enjoy themselves. It should make for an entertaining game, and my Stats Pack should help when it comes to picking out your bet builder this afternoon. You can also check out my Stats Pack Guide to make better sense of the numbers below
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Manchester United vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Antony ruled out and Luke Shaw unlikely to be risked
United suffered a major blow on Thursday night when Antony was stretchered off injured. He is ruled out of this match and will likely miss the FA Cup final as well. Luke Shaw was taken off at half time due to a back concern and is unlikely to be risked. Tyrell Malacia should take his spot at left back with Marcus Rashford set to start as part of an attacking trio. Anthony Martial will probably play upfront with Jaydon Sancho operating on the right wing.
Tim Ream and Andreas Pereira remain sidelined
Fulham are definitely still without Tim Ream, Andreas Pereira and Layvin Kurzawa. Former Man United attacker Dan James is doubtful. Key striker Aleksandar Mitrovic returned from his 8 game suspension to score 3 goals in his last 2 games. Now he goes back to the scene of his controversial actions from earlier in the season. He or Vinicius could start upfront for the Cottagers.
Manchester United vs Fulham Team Stats
Corners always worth considering in United matches
The Red Devils average 1.51 goals for and 1.14 against. They have actually underachieved their xG figure of 1.65 which is slightly surprising. United have decent accuracy converting 15.38 shots into 5.35 on target. It is noticeable that they have conceded quite a lot of shots themselves (12.68) despite having a fairly decent defensive record.
Erik ten Hag’s men tend to get out-cornered by their opponents, possibly due to their wide players cutting inside so regularly. Corners are overall very plentiful in United fixtures at an average of 10.75. Cards can also be considered with the Mancunians averaging over 2 per game.
Fulham defence has massively overachieved this season
From a metrics perspective, Fulham are the most overachieving side in the Premier League this season. Their average goals conceded per match is just 1.20 yet their xGA is 1.65. This is the sort of metric which is unsustainable, so goalkeeper Bernd Leno deserves a lot of credit. They average nearly five SOT against and concede over five corners per match.
Fulham have been one of the dirtier teams this season and racked up 2.14 card per game. Overall corners in their matches have totally over 10 in each match. Considering both teams then adding overall match corners 6.5 or more to your Man United v Fulham bet builder must merit inclusion.
Manchester United vs Fulham Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Rashford to sharpen up his game before the FA Cup final
If he starts, then taking Rashford for 1 or more shots on target in your Man United bet builder could be advisable. He averages 1.51 SOT per 90 mins and is close to a 50% accuracy rate. Bruno Fernandes is another worth looking at for a SOT or overall match shots. Anthony Martial may well lead the line and has a knack of hitting the target at least once.
Mitrovic is a shooting machine
Whoever starts upfront Mitrovic or Vinicius are likely to fire in the most shots. Mitrovic averages close to four shots per 90 mins and at least one shot on target in each match. He has returned to some form, so he is worth looking at for any Fulham bet builder additions. The trio of Wilson, Willian and Cairney can be considered in the shots market for one or more.
Manchester United vs Fulham Goal and Assists Stats
Martial or Rashford are possible scoring options
Having Marcus Rashford back is a major boost for Man United. He will look to get fully sharp ahead of the FA Cup final and scored v Chelsea on Thursday night. Taking Rashford to score or assist in your Man United bet builder could merit strong consideration. Other possible options would be Bruno Fernandes and Anthony Martial.
Fulham strikers the obvious threat
Mitrovic has scored 12 goals in the Premier League this season and is the obvious threat. Whoever stats upfront for Fulham are the players to watch with Vinicius not a bad backup option. Willian has a dual threat ability and combined for nearly double digit goals and assists this season.
Man United vs Fulham Passing Stats
Worry of in-match rotation makes for little appeal
The Red Devils average 54% overall which is actually slightly lower at home. They do not over-monopolise the ball under the management of Erik ten Hag and there’s no guarantee they will have more possession vs Fulham. Lack of guarantee over player minutes is also a major concern with this being the last match of the season.
Potential with Fulham in the passing markets
Fulham average over 50% possession away from home and have played an attractive and technical style of football under Marco Silva this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them have a decent chunk of the ball at Old Trafford. Both centre backs Diop and Adarabioyo could be worth looking at in the passing markets along with midfielder Tom Cairney.
Man United Cards and Fouls Stats
Casemiro continues to be a banker for fouls
Brazilian midfielder Casemiro averages over 2 fouls per 90 mins so immediately comes onto the radar to add to your Man United bet builder. He duly obliged on Thursday vs Chelsea with two fouls. Bruno Fernandes can sometimes be quite cynical and it’s a surprise he only has 6 cards. He’s gotten away with a lot of stuff this season and was unpunished for 3 fouls in midweek.
Three Fulham players who tend to draw several fouls are Harry Wilson, Tom Cairney and Kenny Tete. The Fulham right hand side looks dangerous, and this could spell trouble for Tyrrell Malacia who has at times found himself exposed this season. Cairney will be an obvious target for the United midfielders.
Man United vs Fulham key matchups
Casemiro vs Tom Cairney
Bruno Fernandes vs Joao Palhinha
Tyrell Malacia vs Harry Wilson
Fulham Cards and Fouls Stats
Palhinha card count difficult to ignore
Joao Palhinha has amassed a huge 13 cards this season and is one of the most likely players to get booked in this game. He only averages 1.37 foul per 90 mins though which is slightly lower than expected. Kenny Tete has proven himself to be a decent one vs one defender this season but will be up against either Rashford or Sancho. He should be good for at least one foul, maybe more.
Man United have only drawn 1.31 cards per game from their opponents on average. The trio of Sancho, Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro could all draw some fouls, but nobody stands out as being a major target. With Rashford now likely back in the side from the start then it does give their attack a different dimension and keep defenders on their toes more.
Man United vs Fulham key matchups
Joao Palhinha vs Bruno Fernandes
Kenny Tete vs Marcus Rashford
Harrison Reed vs Casemiro
Man United vs Fulham Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
I’ve had a look at the stats above, and I’ve put together some bet builder selections of my own that you can check out below.
If you’re looking to sign up to a new bookie before the end of the season, then make sure to check out my Free Bets page.
Man United vs Fulham
28th May
kick off 16:30 Over 2.5 Goals
This is the last match of the season and both teams will likely go out to attack with no pressure. There is plenty of goalscoring potential on either side and both competitive meetings this season resulted in over 2.5 goals (3-1 and 2-1 Man United wins).
Over 8.5 cornersMatches involving both teams average well over 10 corners per match. Fulham should have no problems contributing towards this line because they will have decent possession, and Man United have on average conceded more corners to their opponents than they have obtained themselves.
Over 1.5 cardsReferee Rob Jones averages 4.16 cards per game which is one of the highest of any Premier League official. Both sides average over 2 cards per game so even though this is the last match of the season at least a couple of players should find their way into the book.
Joao Palhinha 2+ foulsIt’s now 28 matches since Man United lost a game at Old Trafford. Culminating in their dismantling of Chelsea on Thursday night.
Fulham have had a great season by all accounts. They were one of the favourites to go down, but now are guaranteed a top half finish.
Palhinha has been integral to that. He’s a far better footballer than people give him credit for, he’s more than just a destroyer.
However, he is exceptional at that. He’s made more tackles than any player in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
His 13 bookings this season have made him a bet builder dream. Somehow he’s yet to be sent off either.
The Portuguese international averages 1.37 fouls/90.
He made 4 in his last match against Palace and prior to that he made: 1, 3, 2. against Saints, Leicester and Liverpool.
He’s blanked just 1 in his last 11 for fouls and that came against City.
He’s made 2 or more fouls in 7 of those 11 games, including 2 in the FA Cup game here against United.
He also made 2 fouls against them in the league fixture at Craven Cottage.
Hopefully he makes it a hat trick here.
