Manchester United and Nottingham Forest conclude their Carabao Cup semi-final double header at Old Trafford this evening where it should be a case of dotting i’s and crossing t’s for the Red Devils after their convincing win at the City Ground last week.
With a 3-0 advantage to enjoy, today’s tussle should be an exercise in professionalism and squad rotation for United, who are aiming to win a piece of silverware in Erik ten Hag’s maiden campaign, while Forest will be hoping to restore a measure of pride following their collapse seven days ago.
As per the norm, you can find my stats pack for this evening’s Carabao Cup contest below, which is packed to bursting with key info and metrics from the teams’ Premier League campaigns to date. Use the data presented below alongside my Stats Pack Guide to compile savvier bet builders for the game.
Predicted Lineups
Christian Eriksen was seen leaving Old Trafford on crutches after United’s FA Cup win over Reading at the weekend and the midfielder could be out of action for a few weeks. Anthony Martial and Diogo Dalot are both still missing, while there are doubts over the availability of Luke Shaw, Scott McTominay and Jadon Sancho.
Erik ten Hag resisted the urge to make wholesale changes against Reading on Saturday, though he could shuffle his pack a little more today with Alejandro Garnacho and Anthony Elanga among those hoping to see action.
Forest boss Steve Cooper has a raft of injury issues to contend with at present with Morgan Gibbs-White, Taiwo Awoniyi, Moussa Niakhate, Omar Richards, Dean Henderson and Cheikhou Kouyate among those currently sidelined.
There is also some illness in the Forest camp which could keep another couple of players out of action this evening, including key midfielder Ryan Yates. Former United attacker Jesse Lingard will be desperate to play at Old Trafford again.
Team Stats
Manchester United mustered 25 shots and enjoyed a whopping 77.8% possession in their 3-1 FA Cup victory over Reading on Saturday, though they probably won’t be quite so dominant against Nottingham Forest this evening.
The Red Devils’ improvement under Erik ten Hag’s instruction this season has been stark, though United’s threat in the final third still falls short of their rivals for the top four. They rank sixth in the division for both xG for (1.72) and shots on target (5.05) per 90.
United have been winning a modest number of corners this term, indeed, despite beating Forest 3-0 last week, they actually won fewer corners than the Tricky Trees at the City Ground (5-6), while the teams won nine each when they contested a league fixture at Old Trafford in December.
Forest have been carrying the kind of defensive stats you’d expect from a newly-promoted outfit in the Premier League and only Bournemouth have been conceding more goals per 90 minutes than Steve Cooper’s side.
The Midlanders have been underperforming their xG ever so slightly, though they lodged expected goals figures of just 0.67 & 0.7 in their two meetings with United since Christmas. They did however, have a goal ruled out by VAR on each occasion for tight offsides.
Interestingly, Forest twice collected fewer cards than United despite suffering back-to-back 3-0 defeats against their more-illustrious foes. That could be something to keep an eye on in the markets this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
If Marcus Rashford is rested this evening, his likely replacement on the left flank, Alejandro Garnacho, could be of interest in the shots on target stakes.
When the exciting winger plays, he is a magnet for the ball and his direct running and accurate finishing skills have allowed him to clock shots on target in five of his last six appearances, just one of which was from the start.
Elsewhere, Casemiro could tickle your fancy at 7/5 to hit at least one effort on target. The Brazilian lodged two accurate attempts against Reading on Saturday and the 30-year-old is usually given licence to maraud forward from his role at the base of United’s midfield.
With Taiwo Awoniyi and Morgan Gibbs-White out of action for Forest, Brennan Johnson takes centre stage in attack for the Tricky Trees this evening and the Welsh international gave United a scare or two in last week’s first leg at the City Ground.
The 21-year-old racked up two attempts in that tussle, one of which hit the target and the pacey Johnson should enjoy running into the wide-open spaces at Old Trafford this evening when Forest mount counter attacks. Johnson is priced at 11/10 to register at least one accurate attempt in the second leg.
Player Goals and Assists
Dutch loanee Wout Weghorst is expected to lead the line for United again this evening and the 30-year-old broke his duck for the Red Devils in the first half at the City Ground last week.
Weghorst might have added to his haul for the club against Reading on Saturday with a little more luck, and the Oranje international might be one to consider at 13/10 in the anytime goalscorer stakes later on.
Bruno Fernandes has been a consistent provider of match-changing moments in recent weeks and the Portuguese schemer has finished with either a goal or an assist in seven of his last eight appearances. The 28-year-old is available at 8/11 to post another goal contribution today.
Nottingham Forest failed to find the net in each of their last two encounters with United post-Christmas, though their hosts have conceded in three of their last four assignments at Old Trafford and the Tricky Trees would love to give their traveling fans something to shout about later on.
Sam Surridge scored Forest’s last goal on the road at Bournemouth and the 24-year-old was desperately unlucky to have an equalizer chalked off for offside against United at the City Ground a week ago. Surridge is priced at 4/1 to make his mark this evening.
Livewire forward Brennan Johnson meanwhile – who was a thorn in United’s side in Nottingham – can be backed at 3/1 to finish the second-leg with either a goal or an assist.
Player passes
United controlled 67.4% possession against Forest last week and they should be able to dominate the ball just as much in the semi-final second-leg on their own patch this evening.
Lisandro Martinez (103) and Victor Lindelof (82) topped the individual passes pile for United at the City Ground, so selecting United’s starting centre-halves for your coupons this evening could be a smart move.
Martinez and Varane are 4/6 are 8/11 respectively to break the 70 passes ceiling today and both defenders should be able to push past that target with room to spare.
Nottingham Forest found it difficult to put moves together in last week’s first leg and defenders Joe Worrall and Serge Aurier were their only outfielders to play more than 30 passes at the City Ground.
The same duo have been prominent passers for most of Forest’s campaign, however, Aurier represents the best value at 4/9 to play 30 or more passes against United this evening with Worrall priced at a staggering 1/18 in the same market.
Manchester United Cards
Compatriots Casemiro and Fred should form a hard-hitting midfield duo for United this evening in the more-cultured Christian Eriksen’s absence. The Brazilians have collected nine yellow cards between them in the league this term and they could be on the official’s radar again this evening.
Elsewhere, Lisandro Martinez will need to be on red alert to combat the running power of Brennan Johnson. United will play with a high defensive line this evening and if Johnson times his runs well, he could draw some desperate lunges from the Argentinean.
Orel Mangala and Danilo – who impressed on his debut at the City Ground in the first leg – bring steel and aggression to Forest’s midfield and their duels with United’s Casemiro and Fred look like clashes with card-producing potential.
Brennan Johnson found joy inside the right channel in the first part of Forest and United’s semi-final double header and his runs into the same spaces should put him face-to-face with the host’s no-nonsense Lisandro “The Butcher” Martinez.
Match-Ups to watch
Casemiro vs Orel Mangala
Fred vs Danilo
Lisandro Martinez vs Brennan Johnson
Nottingham Forest Cards
Joe Worrall (7/2 to be carded) has been taking no prisoners at centre-half for Forest this season and the 26-year-old should have plenty of work on his plate against a dangerous United frontline this evening.
In midfield, Remo Frueler (4/1) is a grafter, who can sometimes work his way into the referee’s notebook for his overenthusiastic challenges, while the energetic Danilo (9/2) could be one to track against some fellow Brazilians in the United ranks.
Alejandro Garnacho likes to carve a route to goal as quickly as possible and when he is fed the ball, the teenage winger will make a beeline for an area patrolled by Joe Worrall this evening. Worrall won’t be relishing the prospect of facing Garnacho’s pace and trickery.
Creative lynchpin Bruno Fernandes should have the attentions of Remu Frueler to shake off, while Danilo’s tussle with Casemiro has the makings of South American slugfest in the middle.
Match-Ups to watch
Joe Worrall vs Alejandro Garnacho
Remo Frueler vs Bruno Fernandes
Danilo vs Casemiro
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
From the pack, there’s a few bet builder selections that I liked the look of, and it’s made something of a fouls acca. Four players all featuring in the cards graphics to each commit 1 or more fouls. If you haven’t got a Betfair account, you can make use of the offer above and then load the picks straight into your betslip below.
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
1st February
kick off 20:00 Fred to commit 1 or more fouls
Fred commits 2.15 fouls p/90.
Gustavo Scarpa draws 5.83 fouls p/90.
Remo Freuler to commit 1 or more foulsRemo Freuler commits 1.06 fouls p/90.
Bruno Fernandes draws 1.16 fouls p/90.
Brennan Johnson to commit 1 or more foulsBrennan Johnson commits 1.22 fouls p/90.
Casemiro draws 1.32 fouls p/90.
Joe Worrall to commit 1 or more foulsJoe Worrall commits 1.38 fouls p/90.
Wout Weghorst and Alejandro Garnacho draw 1.11 fouls p/90 each.
Load my 3/1 fouls picks 
