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Manchester United vs Southampton
16th January
kick off 20:00 Manchester United To Have 7+ Shots On Target Both Teams To Score – No Lisandro Martinez To Have 1+ Shots Lesley Ugochukwu To Commit 1+ Fouls
Table of Contents
lEG 1: mANCHESTER uNITED tO haVE 7+ shOTS on tARGET
Southampton have the worst record through 20 Premier League games in the 33-year history of the competition, accumulating just 6 points so far this season, just 2 of which came away from home, in unexpected draws with Brighton and Fulham. Their away record has been even poorer than usual in recent weeks, conceding 16 goals in their last 4 league games away from St. Mary’s.
The Premier League’s basement boys have allowed 6.35 shots on target per game this season, an average that increases to 7.30 on the road. Six of their 10 away league games have seen their opponents take at least 8 shots on target, with all 3 of the 4 sides that did not reach this mark all sitting in the bottom 5 places in the division (Ipswich, Leicester, and Everton).
Man United, meanwhile, may have only gone over this line four times in the Premier League this season, but one of these did come in their 3-0 road win over Southampton earlier this season, where they had 10 shots on target. With some strong recent results and the confidence beginning to flow for Ruben Amorim’s side, we’re backing them to do similar here. It may also be worth increasing this line to 8+ shots on target, which is available at odds of 2.0.
lEG 2: bOTH tEAMS tO sCORE – NO
We’ve already touched on just how poor Southampton have been this season, but their recent struggles have been much worse than their early season form. Across their last 6 Premier League games, Southampton have scored just 1 goal, and have shipped 15, a goal differential of -14.
Both Teams to Score has landed in just one of these 6 games as a result, and this bet would have won in 11 of Southampton’s 20 league games across the season as a whole. Focusing back in on their more recent form, Saints have registered over 1.0 xG just once in their last 6 games, with 3 of these games seeing them generate just 0.3 xG.
Man United have been far from defensively secure, conceding in 7 straight league games, however, with this run featuring games against 6 of the Premier League’s top 7, we can excuse the lack of clean sheets.
In their 6 league games against sides below them in the Premier League table, United have seen this bet land in 5. That includes clean sheets against Leicester, Crystal Palace, and Everton, along with another in their 3-0 win over Southampton earlier this season.
lEG 3: lISANDRO mARTINEZ to hAVE 1+ sHOTS
Fresh off the back of a goal in his last Premier League start, we’re backing Lisandro Martinez to be amongst what we expect to be an avalanche of Man United shots in this game. The Argentina international centre-back has averaged a shade under a shot per 90 in the Premier League so far this season, his average sitting at 0.84.
Across his last 6 league games for the Red Devils that number has increased even more, averaging 1.23 shots per 90 in his most recent run of consecutive league starts. That includes 2 shots against both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth at Old Trafford, with Martinez taking at least 1 shot in 5 of his last 6 league starts.
The Saints allow a league-high 18.20 shots per game in the Premier League, along with the second-most corners per game, at 6.85. Set-pieces are where the majority of Martinez’s shots come from, so this bodes well for this selection.
Southampton conceded 20 shots to Man United at home, and a similar number here only increases the likelihood of Martinez having at least one attempt.
lEG 4: lESLEY uGOCHUKWU tO coMMIT 1+ foULS
Our final selection sees us backing Southampton’s Lesley Ugochukwu to commit a foul. The 20-year-old French midfielder has only recently begun to establish himself in the first team with the Saints, but having started 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, we expect him to retain a starting spot here.
Ugochukwu has committed an average of 2.16 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, the highest of any Saints player likely to start in this one. Excluding his 1-minute cameo against Everton at the start of November, Ugochukwu has now fouled in 9 straight Southampton appearances in all competitions, despite starting on the bench for 4 of these 9.
His last 3 starts have seen the youngster foul at least twice in all 3 games. With Ugochukwu fouling in 4 straight sub showings, even if he does not get the nod to start here, there is still a great chance of this selection landing.
He will be facing off against United’s Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes, who average 1.48 and 1.38 fouls drawn per 90 respectively. This may be the shortest-priced selection in this bet builder, but it offers the best value of all of the selections.
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Manchester United VS Southampton Predicted Lineups
maNCHESTER uNITED VS Southampton Team Stats
Manchester United vs Southampton Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Manchester United vs Southampton Goals and Assists Stats
Manchester United Cards and fouls stats
Southampton Cards and fouls stats
