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Napoli welcome Barcelona for this crunch Champions League Last 16 tie in Southern Italy. These two teams met as recently as two years ago in the Europa League at the same stage and Barcelona emerged victorious. Both clubs have now progressed to the top level of European football again but neither team has been convincing this season. Napoli have just sacked their manager Walter Mazzarri and he’s been replaced by Francesco Calzona.
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Napoli vs Barcelona Predicted Lineups
Victor Osimhen from the bench?
Napoli have a new man in charge so their lineup is tricky to predict. Calzona has a supposed clean bill of health, although midfielder Piotr Zielinski is definitely ruled out because he isn’t registered to play in the Champions League. Jens Cajuste could profit from this and sit in a midfield trio alongside Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Stanislav Lobotka. Victor Osimhen has passed a fitness test and will be in the squad but might have to be content with a place on the bench. It has been admitted he’s only fit enough for 50-60 minutes tops.
Joao Felix in fitness race
Barcelona have injuries to the likes of Gavi, Ferran Torres and Marcos Alonso. Attacker Joao Felix is doubtful with an ankle injury and might have to be content with a place on the bench. Barca are expected to line up in their traditional 4-3-3 formation with Raphinha on the left wing and young starlet Lamine Yamal on the right. Anders Christensen could find himself in midfield alongside Frenkie de Jong and Ilkay Gundogan.
Napoli vs Barcelona Team Stats
Gli Azzurri yet to find ruthless streal
Napoli have underachieved in front of goal this season. Their xG of 1.58 has only been converted into 1.38 goals per game. Napoli average less than five shots on target from nearly 17 attempts which is not accurate enough. Corners are cards are both high in their fixtures so those markets might be worth considering when constructing your Napoli vs Barcelona bet builder.
Overs appeals in multiple markets
Barcelona have decent metrics at both ends of the field. They have, however, been underperforming with xG and xGA. They haven’t been as clinical as they would like and some individual errors have cost them defensively. Barca fire in a high % of their attempts on target, averaging nearly six per game.
Napoli vs Barcelona Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Kvaratskhelia should hit the target
The problem with backing Giacomo Raspadori in the shots market is that he will likely get replaced by Victor Osimhen at some stage, or vice versa. He’s probably only going to have a single half of football to strut his stuff, so the better value option might be backing him to have one or more shots on target at 1.62. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia should be good enough to hit the target at least once at 1.44. The Georgian international loves to rack up the shots and is 1.53 to have three or more in this match.
Raphinha to roar?
One player who always likes a shot is Raphinha. Right from his Rennes and Leeds days, the Brazilian international was a very individual, sometimes selfish player and it’s no surprise to see him average well over four shots per 90 minutes. The 1.20 on offer that he fires two or more shots here looks like safe bet builder material and three or more at 1.73 could be very juicy indeed. Robert Lewandowski just to have a solitary shot on target at 1.30 also looks like a strong Barcelona bet builder addition.
Napoli vs Barcelona Goals and Assists Stats
All eyes on Osimhen
The expected return of Victor Osimhen is attracting a lot of attention. The Nigerian striker will likely only start from the bench but he’s the shortest-priced Napoli player to find the back of the net at 2.50. Of the starters, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist at 2.30 looks a fine option. He will be at the heart of everything Napoli does and should be on penalty-taking duty.
Lewandowski starting to light up?
Robert Lewandowski has been below par this season but still must be respected in any game of football. He leads the Barcelona scoring charts and has even chipped in with a few assists this season. The Polish legend has been in much better form of late, scoring in all of his last three games including a brace at the weekend. The 2.38 available that he scores anytime will be a very attractive option to many people. Ilkay Gundogan has a history of raising his levels in big games and odds of 3.60 on him to score or assist shouldn’t be ignored.
Napoli Cards and Fouls Stats
Anguissa could be a great option for fouls
Napoli rank in the bottom half for cards obtained in Serie A this season and have the third-fewest fouls committed per game (10.30). They’ve also been very clean in the Champions League thus far, but with a new manager in things could change. Nobody overly sticks out to be carded or produce significant fouls. Anguissa is worth a look to sin at around 1.50.
It goes without saying that Barcelona have a lot of technically gifted players who tend to be foul magnets. The trio of Raphinha, Yamal and Lewandowski are all difficult customers in many different ways. Napoli tend to keep things fairly clean but with so much on the line there will be cynical challenges from time to time, the question is working out who’ll commit them.
Barcelona Cards and Fouls Stats
Araujo and Kounde to fall under Kvaradona’s spell
Barcelona also rank in the bottom half for cards in their domestic league. They average the second-least fouls per game in La Liga (10.80) but obviously, the dynamics change significantly in a last 16 away match in the Champions League. They have a few players who regularly press too hard and the likes of Raphinha (1.22), Ronald Araujo (1.22) and Joao Cancelo (1.30) all look like good options to commit at least one foul at the prices quoted. Frenkie de Jong is also a very attractive price at 1.44 just to commit one foul or more. In his position on the field, it will be very difficult to produce a clean game.
Kvicha Kvaratshkelia is the clear standout player to draw fouls for Napoli. Opponents bring him down over three times per game on average so we need to look to the Barca right-hand side for possible foul options. Jules Kounde, Ronald Araujo and Ilkay Gundogan could fall into his trap. Kounde is a massive 1.73 to commit one or more fouls.
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