Napoli eased past Frankfurt 2-0 in the first leg and are hot favourites to progress into the quarter finals of the Champions League. The runaway leaders of Serie A were aided by the second half red card to key Frankfurt striker Randal Kolo Muani, but the result was never really in doubt. If the Germans managed to turn around this deficit, then it would be a sensational comeback!
I’ve put together a stats pack for this evening’s matchup below. Goals, shots, cards, and more, it has everything you need to fill out your bet builder coupons. I recommend taking a look at my Stats Pack Guide if you want to make the most of the numbers below.
Kim Min-Jae and Hirving Lozano have had slight knocks recently but should recover in time to start. Politano is an option on the right wing for Napoli in case the aforementioned Mexican does miss out.
The left back spot is up for grabs with Mario Rui or Mathias Olivera battling it out. Rui has been banned for two domestic matches, so it is difficult to predict who goes in the XI.
The biggest team news ahead of this match is the suspension of Frankfurt striker Randal Kolo Muani. It is a colossal blow for the German outfit that he will miss this contest and everything good about Frankfurt going forwards tends to come through him.
They are also going to be without attacking midfielder Jesper Lindstrom who is set to miss a few weeks due to injury. Both Sebastian Rode and Rafael Santos Borre should come into the side.
Napoli average a whopping 2.31 goals per game which is a slight overachievement compared to their xG of 1.80. Their defence has been impressive with an xGA of just 0.77. The Italians have only conceded an average of 0.62 goals per game, aided by their opponents only having 2.42 SOT. Napoli have fired in an impressive 16.38 shots in each fixture and have not shied away from attempts.
Napoli matches have mediocre corner rates with 5.58 for and 4.00 against. They have managed to draw a massive 2.85 cards per game on average from their opponents. Luciano Spalletti’s men have generally been very clean this season and only picked up an average of 1.38 cards themselves.
Frankfurt average 1.92 goals per game, although have overachieved at this end of the field considering their xG is 1.38. The German outfit concede on average 1.42 goals per game which is a moderate amount. Both shots for and against are a very similar number around the 11 mark. Frankfurt have a decent 3.88 SOT ratio per match.
Corner numbers have been fairly middling in Frankfurt games. They have obtained 5.00 themselves and 4.25 against per match. Again, they also have very mediocre numbers for cards obtained (1.79). Their opponents have averaged 2.38 cards against.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
The man on fire Victor Osimhen has been really peppering the goal this season, averaging 4.62 shots per 90 mins. His SOT ratio is not too bad either at 1.77. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has the next highest number of shots for Napoli at 3.47 per 90 mins with 1.32 on target.
The duo of Lozano and Zielinski both like to try their luck and comfortably average well over 2 shots per 90 mins.
The player replacing Kolo Muani upfront, Rafael Santos Borre has a very poor SOT rate of 0.43 per 90 mins but tends to be limited to substitute appearances. Both Knauff and Kamada also average more than one shot per 90 mins. Frankfurt are not the sort of team who just fire in shots wildly, they wait for good opportunities.
Player Goals and Assists
Victor Osimhen has scored a monstrous 19 goals this season, despite missing a large chunk of the campaign due to injury. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia leads the team for assists with 9 and he has also scored 11 times. Midfield runners Elmas, Zielinski and Lozano have also chipped in with goals. Polish international Zielinski is the second leading assist maker in the team with six.
Randal Kolo Muani is the clear standout player for Frankfurt. He astonishingly leads them with both goals and assists with 11 and 10 respectively. It goes without saying his suspension is massive for the visitors.
Lindstrom and Kamada have 7 goals each with Kamada also chipping in with four assists. Rafael Santos Borre is set to start upfront and has 2 goals and 2 assists, albeit from more limited minutes.
Napoli have averaged a massive 61% possession this season. As a result, several of their players have eclipsed the 70 passes mark per 90 mins.
Kim Min-Jae is likely to last the whole match barring injury and is the prime candidate here along with fellow centre back Rrahmani. The trio of Rui, Lobotka and Oliveira all average over 60 passes per 90 mins.
Frankfurt average 50% possession and are more of a counter-attacking team. None of their players on this list average more than 65 passes per 90 mins but the defensive trio of Smolcic, Tuta and Ndicka at least average over the 50 passes mark.
Frankfurt are unlikely to have much possession in this fixture so it could be risky taking any of their players in the passing markets.
It is noticeable how much of a clean team Napoli are. They do not obtain many cards with defender Kim Min-Jae and attacker Osimhen leading their bookings charts, but only with 4 each. Both Osimhen and Lozano press from the front and are candidates to commit fouls in less dangerous areas. Both players average around one and a half fouls per 90 mins.
Mario Gotze is a stand out player who could cause Napoli issues. He is fouled 1.52 times per 90 mins and it could be down to Lobotka to do a job on him. Without Kolo Muani then Frankfurt lack a key player who can cause major issues. In the middle of the park both Sow and Kamada could provide a test to Napoli centrally.
Match-Ups to watch
Kim Min-Jae vs Rafael Santos Borre
Stanislav Lobotka vs Mario Gotze
Victor Oshimen vs Evan Ndicka
Midfielder Djibril Sow is the most carded player (6) and has an average foul rate of 1.26. Centre back Ndicka has an incredibly tough matchup with Victor Osimhen, whilst both Tuta and Buta are going to have to deal with Georgian superstar Kvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Japanese international Daichi Kamada averages nearly two fouls per game in the Bundesliga but only collected 2 cards. The Frankfurt midfield is really going to have to get stuck in here if they are to have any chance.
Kvicha Kvaratskhelia averages 6.43 dribbles per 90 mins. He is amazing 1 vs 1 and is fouled 1.54 times per 90 mins. Hirving Lozano is another with a high dribbling rate and is brought down nearly twice per game.
Tanguy Ndombele is a versatile box to box midfielder and fouled the most of any Napoli player at 2.84 times per 90 mins. He is only likely to be on the bench though. Lobotka will regularly get stuck into some midfield battles and someone who can be a foul magnet because teams try to stop early Napoli counter-attacks.
Match-Ups to watch
Djibril Sow vs Stanislav Lobotka
Evan N’Dicka vs Victor Osimhen
Aurelio Buta vs Kvicha Kvaratskhelia
My bet builder picks of the pack
Whilst Napoli might have a comfortable lead, this is an exciting game between two exciting teams. There are some great bet builder opportunities here, and you can take a look at my value picks below.