Netherlands vs Morocco betting Tips and Stats

I think this is an absolute cracker of a tie for the round of 32, and if anything, it’s a shame it’s nothing we’re getting to see deeper into the tournament. The Netherlands and Morocco have scored 16 goals between them this summer, and if the attacks are allowed to flow, and the star men can perform, then we’re in for a treat.

The Dutch certainly haven’t struggled in front of goal at the World Cup, but the sheer ruthlessness to their game has been compounded by lapses at the back in all three outings thus far. A 2-2 draw with Japan is evidence that better teams can get at them, but the fact that both teams to score has landed in all three of their outings so far is perhaps a surprise. A 5-1 win over Sweden was followed by a 3-1 win over a very poor Tunisia side.

There are no questions surrounding the Netherlands’ ability in front of goal, but this is perhaps their toughest test yet, and I don’t see them securing a first clean sheet against Morocco. The 2022 Semi Finalists began their group stage in fine fashion with a 1-1 against Brazil, but it’s the Haiti outing that interests me the most. They conceded twice to the weakest nation in their group, but still scored four; in fact, Morocco have scored in 31 of their last 32 outings where their first choice squad is concerned.

This is a case of two outstanding attacks going head to head, and both will get on the scoresheet.

I think Morocco have been hugely impressive at the World Cup thus far, and in particular their attacking stars have stood out. Ismael Saibari has received all the plaudits with three goals in three games, but it’s Brahim Diaz that I’m focusing on here, and for good reason.

I think evens for Diaz to create just two shooting opportunities against the Netherlands seems a ridiculous price. It may well be going under the radar just how well the Madrid man is playing; he has two assists to his name at the World Cup, providing the goals for Saibari against both Brazil and Scotland. In terms of shots created, he’s been consistent as well, with two created against Brazil, and three against Scotland. He’s far more effective against sides that look to come out and play, and the Netherlands will do that.

What truly sells for me isn’t just the form of Diaz, it’s the volume at which Morocco are taking shots on. They rank 11th at the World Cup for total shots, and whilst that might not seem overly impressive, it’s worth looking at the individuals within the squad. Hakimi and Saibari alone have combined for 20 efforts at the World Cup so far, and the likes of El Aynaoui and El Khannous add a further 10 between them. Morocco’s front line will shoot from anywhere, and as chief creator, Diaz will rack up those key passes.

I’ve been hot on Neil El Aynaoui since the start of this World Cup, and now that we’re into the knockout stages, I think it’s easy to see why. He’s a key component in the Moroccan machine; not only is he integral to the way Morocco press and even defend, his ability and calm nature on the ball allows him to relieve pressure.

Fouls, fouls drawn, El Aynaoui excels in both areas, and the foul involvements market means we can maximise the value in both areas. Four seems a steep number, but given what we’ve seen so far from the midfielder, it’s absolutely possible. El Aynaoui has a total of 12 foul involvements at the World Cup thus far, averaging 4.14 P/90.

It’s worth paying particular attention to the Brazil game in particular; it’s perhaps Morocco’s most comparable outing to their upcoming game in terms of quality of opponent, and El Aynaoui managed seven foul involvements, committing four fouls, and drawing three. He’s clearly a man for the big occasion as well, with eight and nine foul involvements respectively across the AFCON Semi Final and Final.

The Netherlands midfield should help this along. Gravenberch, de Jong, and Reijnders are quality operators, and they’ve combined for 2.63 fouls P/90, and 3.30 fouls drawn P/90, at the World Cup so far. El Aynaoui will relish the tussle with them.