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Newcastle vs Man City
28th September
kick off 12:30 Man City to win Over 6.5 Man City corners Newcastle GK to make 4+ saves Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 2+ times
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Leg 1: Man City to Win
Newcastle may have only lost one Premier League game so far this season, but we expect that tally to double here. City laboured to a draw with 10-man Arsenal last weekend but prior to that they had cruised to four straight league wins.
Newcastle’s record disguises quite a poor start overall. They have only faced one side who finished in the top half of the table last season and are yet to beat a team by more than one goal. They have allowed over 1.8 xG in three of their five league games to date.
The champions have by contrast posted at least 2.1 xG in four straight league games, with 3.0 xG or more in two of these. They have not allowed more than 1.0 xG in any of their five games so far, holding teams to 0.7 xG or less in three of their five.
In the league so far, City have scored at least two goals in all five games so far and only Arsenal have scored more than once against them. Newcastle have conceded in five straight games and have only scored twice or more in two of their six games this season.
leg 2: Over 6.5 Man City corners
Only one Premier League side has taken more corners than Man City so far this season, the champions taking 8.8 corners per game across their opening five fixtures. Pep Guardiola’s side started sluggishly, with just three corners away to Chelsea, but since then they have had at least eight corners in every game.
Last weekend saw City take eight corners against Arsenal, and in the three league games before then, they took double digit corners in each game. Their last away clash was at the London Stadium against West Ham, where City had 11 corners.
Across the season, Newcastle have allowed 8.40 corners per game in the Premier League. Unusually, they have been conceding more corners at home than on the road, with both Tottenham and Southampton taking 12 corners each on their respective visits to St James’ Park.
Furthermore, Newcastle have only seen less of the possession in two of their five league games so far, and they allowed 12 corners in both games. City have had more of the ball in all seven of their games this season, which suggests another high corner total is on the cards here.
Leg 3: Newcastle GK to make 4+ saves
Nick Pope has made at least four saves in each of his last four league fixtures. Pope made three saves in each of Newcastle’s first two games this season too, against Bournemouth and Southampton, just one save short of hitting this line again.
They have faced a side that finished in the top half of the table last season just once during this campaign, against Tottenham at St James Park at the start of September, with Pope making six saves. He made eight saves in their last game against Fulham, which may have been Newcastle’s worst performance of the season.
Man City have had five shots on target or more in five straight games in all competitions, with seven or more in four of these. That has seen the opposition goalkeeper making at least five saves in all five of these games.
Across the season, goalkeepers facing City in the Premier League have made 4.60 saves on average, with each of their last three league games seeing five or more saves made. With City averaging 7.0 shots on target per game and Newcastle’s defence looking troubled, this line could be comfortably cleared here.
Leg 4: Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 2+ times
Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes has drawn more fouls than any other Premier League player to date, winning 22 total fouls across his five games. He has drawn 4.40 fouls per 90 which is far and away the most of any player in the division.
He topped this chart in the Premier League last season too, winning 108 fouls in 2023/24, 14 more than second-placed Jordan Ayew’s 94. Across the whole of the season he drew 2.98 fouls per 90. This season he has won at least three fouls in all five league games so far, winning four or more in three of Newcastle’s five games.
Last season, Guimaraes started three of Newcastle’s four games against Man City, drawing at least three fouls in all three of these games. The Brazil international has a few matchups here, the most promising of which is be against Ilkay Gundogan, who has committed 1.20 fouls per 90. Gundogan has fouled in both his league starts and three of his four league games in 2024/25. Guimaraes will also be faced with Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva, who have fouled 0.79 and 0.73 times per 90 respectively in the Premier League
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Newcastle VS Man City SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats
Newcastle VS Man City GOALS AND ASSISTS stats
Newcastle CARDS AND FOULS stats
Man City CARDS AND FOULS stats
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