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Newcastle United host Nottingham Forest will both sides hoping a victory can get their campaigns back on track. Newcastle have endured a tough period, being knocked out of the Champions League and losing three away matches in a row, continuing their poor record on the road on Saturday as Luton defeated them 1-0. They will be hoping a return to St James’ Park brings a return to form.
They couldn’t ask for better opposition given Forest’s difficulties on the road. Nuno Espirito Santos’ first game in charge ended in defeat against Bournemouth but the performance was spirited in the wake of a controversial red card and he will hope his large squad have what it takes to beat a depleted Newcastle. This is Boxing Day’s first offering and we wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we didn’t break down all the numbers to make your life easier as you bid for a post-Christmas winner.
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Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups
Botman to return for Newcastle
Sven Botman’s return to the Newcastle fold has proven timely with Jamaal Lascelles forced off at the weekend with a thigh injury. He should join Fabian Schar and could recreate Eddie Howe’s first choice back four, albeit one of Kieran Trippier or Dan Burn could be rested. Alexander Isak may get the nod up top having replaced teenager Lewis Miley early on at the weekend.
No Boly for Nuno
Nuno was dealt an immediate selection blow with his former Wolves defender Willy Boly being red-carded at the weekend. It means that Moussa Niakhate is expected to start, joining the exciting Murillo at the heart of defence. Nuno is unlikely to change too much, otherwise, with consistency and stability the requirement as he looks to get his ideas across.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Team Stats
Newcastle excellent at home
Newcastle have been phenomenal in front of a raucous home crowd this season, winning eight of their nine matches at St James’ Park. They have created 2 xG or more on 7 occasions while conceding 1 xG or more just twice. They have had five or more shots on target on six occasions and five or more corners on seven. They continue to be the bane of referee’s whistles, drawing a minimum of nine fouls in every game and two or more yellow cards in 14 of 18 Premier League matches.
Forest struggling on the road
Forest aren’t a big threat on the road, struggling to deliver away from home comforts. They have failed to score in four of their last six on opposition turf while managing three or more shots on target on just five occasions. They have conceded four or more shots on target and six or more corners in seven of their away matches. Across the season, they have committed 10 or more fouls in 14 of 18 Premier League matches.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Almiron appears to be in great nick
Miguel Almiron has been one of few able to pull on his boots regularly recently and his fitness is showing, managing to have a shot on target in seven of his last eight appearances in all competitions, while he has managed two shots at goal against Luton at the weekend. He’s available at 1.57, just shorter than Anthony Gordon’s 1.44, another winger having a few shots at goal – he’s hit the target in 8 of his last 11.
Who knew Nuno Wood like Chris?
Chris Wood has had a difficult spell at Nottingham Forest but he is set to start once again as he travels to former club Newcastle United. He has made few appearances this season but has managed a shot on target in three of his last four starts and can be backed at 1.91. Wideman Anthony Elanga is doing his best to support the attack, having a shot on target in six of his last 10 starts.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Goals and Assists Stats
Isak back in the game
Newcastle’s strikers have been excellent this season, managing to score 14 goals from a combined 17.3 90 of football. Both strikers have seven goals apiece and are helped further by being the team’s first-choice penalty takers – they are three for three from the spot. Both men are 2.1 to score anytime on Boxing Day and with Isak expected to lead the line, he should be the man to back.
Chris Wood stepping up
New managers bring opportunity for most players and Chris Wood could be a beneficiary. He provided an excellent assist for Anthony Elanga before scoring himself at the weekend and now has four goals and an assist from 6.2 90s this season – decent going for a player now under a manager who has proven he can get a striker firing. Wood is a whopping 4.2 to contribute to a goal at anytime against his former employers.
Newcastle Cards and Fouls Stats
Midfield battle could be key
This could be a game full of South American flair but Newcastle’s midfield pair of Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes love giving as good as they’ve got in the tackle. Guimaraes has already been suspended this season and has committed a foul in 12 of his 17 Premier League starts while Joelinton is amongst the highest foulers in the league. Keep an eye on Kieran Trippier who has now fouled an opponent in 13 of 17 Premier League appearances.
Newcastle’s midfield will want to get amongst Ryan Yates and Orel Mangala, who draw fouls for fun. Yates has started seven games this season, being fouled twice or more in six of those, including a whopping 6 times against Everton and 5 times vs Spurs, while Mangala has been fouled in 11 of his last 12 matches. Then there is Morgan Gibbs-White, who has been fouled in 16 of 18 matches and twice or more on 12 occasions.
Nottingham Forest Cards and Fouls Stats
Yates vs Guimaraes the ultimate clash
In the red corner, we have Ryan Yates. Seven starts. Two or more fouls in all seven starts. His tag partners include Oriel Mangala, a booking away from a suspension, Chris Wood, who has committed two fouls in his last three starts, and Harry Toffolo, who has committed a foul in seven of his last nine matches.
In the black and white corner, Bruno Guimaraes. Fouled in every Premier League appearance. Fouled two or more times in 12 of 17 matches. Fouled 11 times in his last two matches. Helping him call to the referee for support is Anthony Gordon, who has fouled in 15 of 17 Premier League appearances and twice or more in nine and Sean Longstaff, who fouled in seven of his last nine Premier League starts, including twice or more on six occasions.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Key Matchups
Bruno Guimaraes vs Ryan Yates
Orel Mangala vs Sean Longstaff
Anthony Gordon vs Neco Williams
Kieran Trippier vs Anthony Elanga
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
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Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
26th December
kick off 12:30 Newcastle to win
Newcastle have won 8 of their 9 Premier League matches at home.
Forest have the third worst away record in the division, losing 6 of 9 matches on the road.
Over 4.5 Newcastle cornersNewcastle have had 5 or more corners in seven of nine home matches.
Forest have conceded 6 or more corners in seven of nine away matches.
Miguel Almiron 1+ shots on targetAlmiron has had 1 or more shots on target in 7 of his last 8 matches, he had 2 shots in the other appearance.
Forest have given away 4 or more shots on target in 7 of 9 away matches.
Ryan Yates 2+ foulsYates has committed 2 or more fouls in all 7 league starts.
Newcastle’s midfield of Guimaraes, Longstaff and Joelinton average over 6 fouls drawn per 90 minute.
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