Newcastle and Tottenham go head-to-head at St James’ Park this afternoon in what promises to be a pivotal fixture in the race to secure a top four place in the Premier League this season.
The Magpies have tasted defeat just once on home soil this term and Eddie Howe’s energic outfit will fancy their chances of outworking and outplaying a Spurs side notorious for their flakiness on the road.
Below, I’ve compiled a stats pack for this top four six-pointer, which should arm you with everything you need to piece together a winning bet builder. As always, check out my Stats Pack Guide if you need some extra assistance.
Enigmatic winger Allan Saint-Maximin is sidelined for Newcastle and Eddie Howe could choose to field Joelinton in a more advanced position on the left in the Frenchman’s absence. Anthony Gordon is also an option to fill in on that side.
Aleksander Isak seems to have the edge on Callum Wilson for the central striker spot, while Bruno Guimaraes is probably the first name on the team sheet in midfield. Former Spurs star, Kieron Trippier, will hope to make a splash against his former employers.
With Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur out injured, Spurs look light in midfield though Oliver Skipp should deputise in there alongside the more experienced Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg. Clement Lenglet is a doubt at the back, though The French defender should recover in time to feature.
Emerson Royal is in the treatment room so January signing Pedro Porro should continue at right wing back. Lucas Moura is suspended, though the Brazilian wouldn’t have started ahead of Dejan Kulusevksi, Son Heung-min or Harry Kane in any case.
Only Arsenal have lost fewer league games than Newcastle this season, though the Magpies are one of the division’s draw specialists and only Brentford (13) have shared the spoils more often than United (11) have so far.
Eddie Howe’s side are arguably the most expertly-drilled outfit in the Premier League from a defensive standpoint and alongside holding the top tier’s best goals against record, the Magpies rank second for xG against (1.02 p/90) and third for shots on target against (3.20 per 90). Elsewhere, Newcastle sit joint-first with Man City for corners won per 90 (6.67) and they are priced at 13/20 to win over 5.5 of those again today.
Tottenham are the Premier League’s third most prolific team so far this term and with a tip of the cap in Harry Kane’s direction, they’ve been clocking 1.84 goals per 90. Their xG (1.21) however, which is the league’s eighth-best, suggests they have hit an overperforming streak in the final third.
At the opposite end, Spurs are a bottom eight team for both shots and shots against per 90, and the Londoners have been collecting more cards than Newcastle. Tottenham picked up four cautions to the Magpies’ two when the teams last met in October and they are backable at even money to amass more bookings again this afternoon.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
When he’s fit and firing, Alexander Isak is dynamite, and the Swedish attacker has been lodging a hefty 1.79 shots on target per 90 since signing for Newcastle from Real Sociedad. The 23-year-old managed to get two attempts on target in each of his last two appearances and he is of interest at 5/6 in the 2+ SOT stakes again today.
Miguel Almiron could be another option to consider on the flank. The Paraguayan had six shots when Newcastle last played Spurs in October and the Paraguayan international is a generous-looking 8/15 to register 1+ accurate efforts in this afternoon’s rematch.
The cream rises to the surface pretty quickly when analysing Tottenham’s most-prolific shot-takers, and unsurprisingly, dynamic duo Harry Kane and Son Heun-min have been dominating both metrics for Spurs this term.
Kane has mustered at least one shot on target in five of his last six Premier League appearances and Tottenham’s talisman is excellent value at 4/11 to clock at least one accurate punt today. Son is an equally sellable option in the same market at 4/7. Both forwards notched two shots on target against Newcastle last year.
Player Goals and Assists
Miguel Almiron is one of only two Newcastle players (alongside Callum Wilson) on double-figure goals for the campaign, though the 29-year-old has bagged just two league goals since the turn of the year and his dry spell has been barren enough to encourage me to look elsewhere today.
Step forward Alexander Isak. With eight goals in ten league starts, Isak’s strike rate is insane, and with two goals in his last three appearances, the Swede takes excellent form into this afternoon’s crunch contest. Isak is docket-worthy at 5/4 to net anytime today.
Between them, Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have plundered 31 of Tottenham’s 57 Premier League goals this season, with Kane providing the lion’s share of those himself. The 29-year-old has rattled home five goals in his last five top flight starts and Kane to score anytime at 7/4 is a price too generous to ignore today.
Son, who has four previous career goals against Newcastle, is 11/4 in the same market, though Kane, who has netted nine times against the Magpies over the years has more pulling power in this department.
Newcastle aren’t particularly possession-hungry and rank seventh in the league for average time spent in control of the ball in 2022/23. In terms of their best individual distributors, Kieran Tripper tends to be heavily involved down the right flank, where he has been averaging 53.7 passes per 90.
The 32-year-old has surpassed 70 passes in three of his last four appearances however, and Tripper is a tasty pick at even money to beat that target again today. Bruno Guimaraes is 13/8 in the same field, though he has struggled to pass his way over a hurdle that high this term.
Tottenham’s possession stats have flitted wildly from one extreme to the other in recent weeks, though midfield metronome Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has been consistent with his output amidst the madness, playing 70 or more passes in four of his last seven starts.
The Dane is 4/7 to hit 70 or more passes again today, while his teammate Oliver Skipp is 8/13 to conquer a lower 50+ passes tally. Skipp has landed a half century of passes in six of his last ten starts for Spurs in all competitions.
Newcastle Cards and Fouls
Joelinton is a walking yellow card for Newcastle and the burly Brazilian has collected more cautions than any other Premier League player this season. The 26-year-old should be a market favourite at 13/5 to see yellow again today.
Kieran Tripper (1.36 fouls p/90) should be a bundle of enthusiasm against his old club and the veteran defender looks like a solid coupon padder at 1/4 in the 1+ fouls arena. Bruno Guimaraes meanwhile, who committed three fouls in his last game (vs Aston Villa) is 10/11 to commit at least two more this afternoon.
Pedro Porro, who has been fouled 1.79 times per 90), picks up his share of bumps and bruises down Tottenham’s right flank and the lightweight Spaniard should occupy the same spaces as foul-machine Joelinton today.
Son Heung-min’s pace could bring the worst out of Kieran Tripper on the opposite side, while Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (1.04) is unlikely to be given any room to breathe by the relentless Bruno Guimaraes in central areas.
Match-Ups to watch
Joelinton vs Pedro Porro
Kieran Trippier vs Son Heung-min
Bruno Guimaraes vs Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg
Tottenham Cards and Fouls
Hard-nosed Argentinean defender Cristian Romero has an impressive collection of cautions this season and the 24-year-old could be his usual hot-headed self in the cauldron of noise at St. James’ Park. Romero is 7/5 to earn his 11th Premier League card of the season this afternoon.
Ivan Perisic has lost a yard of pace and his foul count seems to rise with every stride he loses. The Croatian is priced at 1/3 to commit 1+ fouls today. Oliver Skipp, who can be an awkward tackler in midfield, is 3/10 in the same market.
If Brazilian Joelinton is pushed a little further forward today, his altercations with South American rival Cristian Romero could be explosive. Both fouls and cards in both directions look likely there.
Miguel Almiron’s acceleration should spell danger for the one-paced Ivan Perisic on the other side, while Bruno Guimaraes (fouled 2.67 times p/90) carries enough of a nuisance factor to ruffle Oliver Skipp’s feathers.
Match-Ups to watch
Cristian Romero vs Joelinton
Ivan Perisic vs Miguel Almiron
Oliver Skipp vs Bruno Guimaraes
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
This should be a cracker of a game in the hunt for Champions League football, and that should mean one thing. A bet builder dream. I’ve picked out some selections at a delicious looking 10/1 to kick you off.
Newcastle vs Tottenham
Isak has been an unreal addition to Newcastle’s attack, and has been on a mission since he returned from injury.
He has 5 goals in his last 6 games and has managed at least 1 shot on target in each of them.
In fact, he’s managed 2 shots on target in 4 of his last 6, including the last two on the bounce.
Tottenham aren’t great at holding out as a defence and concede 4.45 shots on target per game.
They’re off the back of conceding 6 shots on target (and 3 goals) against Bournemouth at home.
Newcastle love a corner, and with Kieran Trippier returning to his former club, I fancy them to exploit his set piece strengths by forcing corners.
Not only that, but Trippier’s sheer crossing stats and early whipped ball can often lead to corners.
That’s why the Magpies average 6.67 corners per game.
This increases to a huge 7.71 at home.
Tottenham concede an average of 5.53 corners per game away from home.
Joelinton and fouls go hand in hand, and I really fancy his battle with Crisitan Romero if he starts wide left.
He averages a massive 1.98 fouls p/90, and has earned himself a spot in the referee’s book 11 times.
In his last 3 games he has committed 8 fouls – that’s 2.67 er game.
He committed and drew 1 foul in the reverse fixture.
Pedro Porro as well draws 1.79 fouls p/90 from right wing-back.
Romero is another player on the pitch that doesn’t shy away from a tackle, and he has averaged 1.64 fouls p/90, and is just a single card behind Joelinton on 10 for the campaign.
He has committed 8 fouls across his last 3 away games – again an average of 2.67.
That includes 5 against Everton the last time they travelled.
Up against Joelinton and Isak who draw a combined 2.33 fouls p/90.