Newcastle welcome an underachieving West Ham side to St James’ Park. The Toon are absolutely flying this season and were boosted by a midweek win vs Southampton in the Carabao Cup. Fans can now look forward to a trip to Wembley where they will face Man United. They are short priced favourites to beat this West Ham team who have been under a lot of pressure. Victory vs Everton a couple of weeks ago was a massive relief for manager David Moyes. However, he remains favourite in the EPL sack race and could be one bad result away from the chop.
I’ve put together a stats pack for today’s late tussle, which is filled to the brim with stats for xG, goals, shots, cards, fouls and passes from both sides’ Premier League seasons. That’s ideal for picking a bet builder with confidence. If you need assistance with how to use the data, take a read of my Stats Pack Guide first.
Newcastle progressed into the final of the Carabao Cup in midweek but that victory came at a cost with key midfielder Bruno Guimaraes picking up a red card. He will now be suspended for the next three EPL matches. Joelinton is the most likely to come into central midfield which leaves a space on the left wing for someone to fill. New £45m signing Anthony Gordon is a contender along with Allan St Maximin or Jacob Murphy. Striker Alexander Isak would have been threatening a start upfront but is an injury a doubt due to being in concussion protocol.
New January signing Danny Ings injured his knee vs Everton two weeks ago and is a doubt to feature here. The trio of Cornet, Scamacca and Kurt Zouma are all ruled out longer term. David Moyes rotated the team heavily in the FA Cup vs Derby County so several key players should be refreshed ahead of this contest.
Newcastle average 1.65 goals per game and just 0.55 against. They have been massively overarching defensively because their xGA per game is as big as 1.37 A combination of strong defending and some exceptional keeping from Nick Pope has been the main reason for this overachievement. Pope proved his worth with a magnificent save vs Palace at the weekend. The Magpies have fired in an average of 14.30 shots in each fixture, of which 4.80 have been on target. Only 3.05 SOT against per match has been crucial in restricting their goals conceded.
Eddie Howe’s men have a brilliant set piece taker in Kieran Trippier and regularly play for corners and free kicks. They average a massive 7.15 corners per game and 4.30 against. They registered an astonishing 15 corners on Saturday vs Palace. Newcastle games can get a bit frantic, and the cards have flown. The Toon average 1.75 cards per match with their opponents picking up 2.40. Newcastle matches can potentially explode given the right sort of conditions.
West Ham average 0.85 goals per game which is massively below their xG of 1.60. They have not been very proficient in front of goal. They average 1.25 goals against per game but their xGA is 1.47 so there is a slight overachievement defensively. The Hammers have been firing nearly 13 shots in each game and 11.69 against. One of their biggest issues finding the back of the net has only been 3.50 SOT. That figure needs to improve in the second half of the season.
Cards have been on the low side for West Ham. They only average 1.30 cards in each game which suggests they might need to get stuck in more! The Hammers have drawn 1.70 cards per game from their opponents which is an average sort of mark. Corners have also been on the average side, obtaining 5.10 in each game and 4.85 against.
Player shots and shots on target
Callum Wilson averages well over three shots per 90 mins but only has a SOT rate of 1.30 He scores plenty of goals but isn’t always the most accurate of shooters. Allan St Maximin has similar numbers and averages 2.59 shots per 90 mins. Attacking midfielder Miguel Almiron has been amazing this season. He is averaging 2.45 shots per game but only converting that into 0.76 SOT. Alexander Isak might feature at some stage. His data is more limited from just 5 appearances, but he averages 2.81 shots per 90 mins with a very high SOT ratio of 2.19.
Four players on this list average over two shots per 90 mins, but West Ham have generally been very wasteful. Said Benrahma hits the target roughly once every three attempts and Lucas Paqueta has a similar ratio. Both can be looked at in the shots market, but it would be brave to back either to test Nick Pope. Both Antonio and Bowen also average more than two shots per 90 mins. Bowen has been in better form recently but only averages 0.50 SOT which is a disappointing rate.
Player goals and assists
Miguel Almiron tops the Newcastle scoring charts, netting 9 goals. His form has dried up though with no goal in any of his last 8 appearances. Callum Wilson has scored 6 times and also contributed with three assists but is another in poor form with no goals since the World Cup break. Midfielder Bruno Guimaraes has both 3 goals and 3 assists and will be badly missed here.
Kieran Trippier is the primary set piece taker and leads the Toon with four Premier League assists this season. Isak has scored three goals from just five appearances, including a recent last minute winner vs Fulham. He also set up the winner for Joelinton in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.
Jarrod Bowen leads West Ham in the goalscoring charts but has only netted four times. Benrahma has scored three times and Antonio twice. Nobody stands out in the assist market either with Antonio and Lucas Paquet each bagging two. It has been a very poor year for West Ham offensively which these statistics highlight.
Newcastle only average 51% possession but it is a number which has been increasing more recently, especially at home. They recently had over 60% possession vs Palace and Fulham respectively. Manager Eddie Howe is gradually transforming this team into being more comfortable on the ball which is worth looking out for.
Bruno Guimareas averages the most passes per 90 mins for Newcastle (53.0) but he is suspended here so someone will need to replicate his output in the middle of the park. Kieran Trippier is on every Toon set piece and averages 51.5 passes per 90 mins. Defensive duo Fabian Schar & Sven Botman average in the late 40s for passes and they are worth watching if Newcastle continue to progress as a possession hungry side.
David Moyes’ men only average 45% possession and are known for being a counter-attacking team under his stewardship. Some players have been averaging high in the passing ranks though. Declan Rice should last the full match and has amassed 60.9 passes per 90 mins. Everything they do in the middle of the park goes through the highly rated England star. Both Cresswell and Johnson average over 50 passes per 90 mins but aren’t expected to start here.
There is no getting away from the fact that Newcastle are a dirty team. Joelinton has obtained seven cards this season and averages nearly two fouls per 90 mins. Kieran Trippier usually fouls at least once per game and has netted five cards. Centre back Fabian Schar is another player worth keeping an eye on for a potential card. Upfront, Callum Wilson is a pressing forward type of player and will get stuck in, often mistiming a tackle. Isak could replicate this role if the Swedish international is involved.
Attackers Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen have been fouled roughly twice per 90 mins on average and are the two players most likely to cause Newcastle problems. Both are known for trying a few dribbles, around 2.50 per 90 mins and his sheer physicality can be hard to bring down Antonio. In midfield, Lucas Paqueta could enjoy himself without having to worry about Bruno Guimaraes. On average he is fouled 1.26 times per 90 mins and will be a tough matchup along with Rice in the middle of the park.
Matchups to watch
Joelinton vs Lucas Paqueta
Kieran Trippier vs Jarrod Bowen
Fabian Schar vs Michail Antonio
West Ham Cards
The Hammers have been a surprisingly clean team this season. Thilo Kehrer has four cards and produces 1.33 fouls per 90 mins. He is often the defensive enforcer and could target Wilson or Isak. Lucas Paqueta will get stuck in and averages 2.43 fouls per 90 mins. Elsewhere, both Coufal and Rice could be candidates for fouls, but unless West Ham start to play dirtier then it might be best to avoid them in the cards markets.
Bruno Guimaraes is a foul magnet and will be a big miss for Newcastle. Whether someone else can replicate his role in the middle of the park remains to be seen, it could be that Joelinton plays there. Allan St Maximin will no doubt be unleashed at some stage on the left wing, perhaps from the start. The Frenchman averages an astonishing 8.70 dribbles per 90 mins. Both Almiron and Wilson are known for causing problems as well with each getting fouled at least 1.30 times per 90 mins.
Matchups to watch
Thilo Kehrer vs Callum Wilson
Lucas Paqueta vs Joelinton
Vladimir Coufal vs Allan St Maximin
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
After scouring the stats, and then scouring the betting markets, I can’t help but add some of the bet builder picks that looked pretty tasty. Load them into your betslip below and make use of the free bets above. Good luck.
Newcastle vs West Ham
Newcastle have scored 1.65 goals per game, and conceded just 0.55.
West Ham have scored just 0.85 goals a game and concede a lowly 1.25.
Newcastle games average 11.45 corners, with Newcastle taking credit for 7.15.
West Ham games average 9.95 corners per game.
Joelinton average 1.85 fouls p/90.
In a more central role, he will be up against Lucas Paqueta who draws 1.26 fouls p/90.
Newcastle average 4.80 shots on target per game.
West Ham concede 3.87 shots on target per game.