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The top and bottom of the Premier League will be affected by this clash in the East Midlands as Nottingham Forest host Arsenal. The City Ground will be rocking with home fans desperate for their team to spring a surprise. Forest need points, especially as they have a potential points deduction hanging over their heads. With just one win in four games, Arsenal can ill afford to drop any more points in the title race in fixtures like this. A pulsating clash awaits with plenty on the line for both teams.
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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Forest still hit by international call-ups
Nuno Espirito Santo continues to be short-handed this month with as many as six players away on international duty. Key men include Serge Aurier, Moussa Niakhate and Ibrahim Sangare. Top striker Taiwo Awoninyi remains injured and on the sidelines so Chris Wood keeps his place upfront. Morgan Gibbs-White looks set to return to the XI after missing through injury recently, and Anthony Elanga should at least make the bench after resuming training.
Rice and Gabriel doubtful
Arsenal should restore Brazilian winger Gabriel Martinelli to the starting XI after impressing off the bench vs Crystal Palace. The Gunners do have two major doubts though due to injury; Declan Rice and Gabriel Magalhaes. Both are expected to be passed fit but possible replacements could be Jorginho in midfield and Jakub Kiwior at the back. Thomas Partey is back in training but officially ruled out. Mohamed Elneny and Takehiro Tomiyasu are both still on international duty.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Team Stats
Forest defence is concerning
Forest have struggled for goals this season although they have packed more of a punch since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge. Of greater concern has been their defensive performance, conceding a hefty 1.81 goals per game on average. The Tricky Trees have a knack of conceding a lot of corners at 6.38 per game.
Arsenal corners are eye-catching
Arsenal have a highly impressive xGA of 0.80 per game which is the best of any side in the Premier League. They have conceded just 2.48 shots on target per 90 and have done extremely well to limit their opponents to just 8.67 shots overall. They are usually a well organised and disciplined side and they have picked up 1.62 cards per contest. The Gunners have racked up an extremely high number of corners this year at 7.81 per match. With Forest conceding so many, this could be a betting angle to exploit.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Forest could struggle for shots
Forest average less than 11 shots per game and are more of a counter-attacking side who don’t shoot that freely. Chris Wood and Morgan-Gibbs White are the primary players to look at in the shots markets. Wood is as big as 1.83 just to have two or more shots which feels like a value price considering he will be the starting striker. Gibbs-White is always a danger and should be on set pieces so the 1.91 offered in the same market could be a tempter. It must be remembered that Arsenal concede less than nine shots per game though.
Gunners looking to fire regularly
Arsenal have several players who average over two shots per game. Gabriel Jesus is statistically the most likely man to hit the target for the visitors and he could be added to your Arsenal bet builder at 1.25 in this category. Potential value could be in the shots market with Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli to have two or more also priced at 1.25. Gabriel Magalhaes is doubtful to start here but has been a menace from set pieces recently and the 1.44 that he has just one shot or more is very tempting.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Goals and Assists Stats
Wood and Gibbs-White look the best value for Forest
Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last four away games so Forest should fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet. The hosts have netted 9 goals in their last 4 Premier League games so have some potential. In the absence of Taiwo Awoninyi the Forest goalscoring burden has been placed on Chris Wood. The former Newcastle man can be backed at 4.50 to score anytime. Morgan Gibbs-White is 3.50 to score or assist and he does offer a dual threat option in that market.
Saka to contribute could be the best bet
Bukayo Saka is the biggest goalscorer or creator option for Arsenal and is always worth looking at in the ‘to score or assist’ market considering his numbers. The England wideman is priced at 1.83, a solid addition to a Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal bet builder. Gabriel Jesus is the shortest-priced Arsenal player to hit the back of the net at 2.40. Can he be trusted though? Especially with Eddie Nketiah breathing down his neck for minutes.
Nottingham Forest Cards and Fouls Stats
Yates to be baited into more fouls
Forest are mid table for cards in the Premier League this season with 47 yellows and 3 reds. They are middle of the road for fouls at 11.34 per game. The three players who stand out for fouls are Orel Mangala, Gonzalo Montiel and Ryan Yates. The former is 1.20 to commit at least one foul, which could be strong Nottingham Forest bet builder material. Montiel is bigger at 1.33, while due to his high numbers then Yates must be backed to commit two or more fouls at 1.36, but this looks highly likely considering his persistent fouling.
The Gunners are only fouled 10.8 times per game which is rather mediocre in the Premier League. Saka is always the most targeted Arsenal player and has been fouled on average 2.32 times per 90 mins. Any opposing left back or defensive midfielder needs to be looked at in the fouls market with Saka around. Harry Toffolo is 1.25 to commit one or more fouls and Mangala has already been mentioned as a foul candidate.
Arsenal Cards and Fouls Stats
Havertz and Jesus persistent foulers
Mikel Arteta’s men are the cleanest team in the Premier League, picking up just 32 cards and averaging only 9.6 fouls committed per game. They tend to keep their discipline well and should have a lot of the ball here. Two players that always stand out are Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus. Former Chelsea man Havertz has been a persistent fouler this season (1.67 per 90 minutes) and Jesus tends to press recklessly, at times giving away cheap free kicks.
Forest are only fouled 9.5 times on average in each game which is the fifth-lowest rate in the Premier League. They tend to lack that many technical and tricky players although a couple do stand out such as Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi. A lot depends where Gibbs-White plays but he could be a problem for all of the Arsenal defenders. Ryan Yates loves a scrap. He fouls a lot himself but also wins several free kicks. Declan Rice and Kai Havertz could fall into his trap.
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