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Vincent Kompany will be hoping his Burnley side can pick up their first point of the Premier League season when they travel east to Nottingham on Monday night.
Burnley have endured a tough start to life in the Premier League, losing at home against both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur as well as a 3-1 loss at Villa Park. However, they beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 away from home in the EFL Cup and will hope for a repeat as they take on a first league game that doesn’t a likely top eight outfit.
Steve Cooper and Nottingham Forest will be happy with their start to the season, losing by the odd goal against Arsenal and Manchester United in decent displays while seeing off newly promoted Sheffield United and Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea.
A fascinating match-up between two clubs that have made near-wholesale changes since winning promotion to the top flight and we’ve broken down the numbers to help you build a Forest vs Burnley Bet Builder and one of our own too.
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FOREST VS BURNLEY PREDICTED LINEUPS
Forest looking settled
One of the primary issues for Steve Cooper and Nottingham Forest last season was consistency, Cooper often having to chop and change his XI to suit individual matches rather than having a core he could rely on consistently. The signing of Anthony Elanga has boosted the front line, Ola Aina appears to have made the left-wing-back spot his own while Joe Worrall has stepped up to lead the defence.
Change likely for Burnley
Vincent Kompany has seen a lot of new bodies enter the building since the summer and he is still working out his best XI as a result. They have conceded 11 goals in their three league matches so change is likely. Hannes Delcroix was given the second half against Spurs and could start to give the side an orthodox left-back while Manuel Benson and Josh Brownhill are pushing for starts.
FOREST VS BURNLEY TEAM STATS
Plenty of cards in Forest matches
Nottingham Forest are seeing a high number of cards in their matches so far this season with both sides picking up an average of three apiece, perhaps an ode to the battling nature of Forest performances and their power in transition. Despite this, Forest have averaged 9.25 fouls per game – the fourth fewest in the league. As for their attack, their numbers are short but the quality of the opposition should be taken into account – they are still averaging above three shots on target despite playing Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man United.
Burnley need to improve
Despite playing two games fewer than the majority of the Premier League, nobody has conceded more than Burnley. They are also rank third for highest xG against and their xG for is also third worst. They are averaging just over two shots on target per game and conceding over eight. However, their level of opposition has been great. And despite this, they are in the top six for corners won and fifth for passes made – that could be a fine avenue for your Forest vs Burnley bet builder.
FOREST VS BURNLEY SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET
Boly proving a threat
While Forest have a number of exciting attacking talents at their disposal, one of their biggest threats this season has been Willy Boly. The centre-half has managed five shots and four on target this term, even scoring against Manchester United. He is available to have a shot at goal at 1/2 and one on target at 13/8 – against a side that have proven to be shoddy defending set-pieces.
Delcroix could be an avenue to goal
Hannes Delcroix may be a centre-back but he’s proven to be a real goal threat from either centre-back or left-back for Burnley. The 24-year-old has played 135 minutes for Burnley and has had four shots at goal in those matches, with two of those on target. He is expected to start at left-back and can be backed in your Forest vs Burnley bet builder at 10/11 for a shot on target or 2/5 to have two or more shots.
FOREST VS BURNLEY GOALS AND ASSISTS
Taiwo looking the main man
Taiwo Awoniyi had a difficult year establishing himself at Nottingham Forest but a strong end to the season has been followed up by an excellent start, scoring three goals and assisting another in his first four games. He’s firmly established as the main man. Another player having a positive influence is Serge Aurier, the wing-back already having two assists to his name – he’s 5/1 to repeat the feat on Monday night.
Burnley Foster-ing a talent
South Africa hasn’t seen a bagsman in the Premier League since Benni McCarthy burst onto the scene at Blackburn Rovers but over 15 years on, Lyle Foster looks ready to challenge him. The 23-year-old has been entrusted with a starting spot and goals against Villa and Spurs have done plenty to warrant that faith. He has had five shots and three on target so far and is available to find the net against Forest at 16/5.
FOREST CARDS AND FOULS
Twigs are snapped in Forest midfield
Ryan Yates and Oriel Mangala are in the side to provide a physical and tenacious presence in the engine room and they are providing just that – the pair have averaged 2.5 and 2 fouls apiece. They aren’t the only dirty players in the Forest side – Ola Aina is picking up a reputation with three yellow cards to his name already, as well as 1.54 fouls per 90.
Forest to get stuck in to cullen
Josh Cullen is used to being on the end of big challenges and he will be hoping for some protection from the referee – he has already drawn seven fouls this season and his role as dictator in midfield will see him come under pressure from the pair. Connor Roberts is another player to watch. He has only been fouled twice so far but has a reputation for drawing fouls with his positive attitude – he drew 1.25 last season and 1.54 in the Championship.
BURNLEY CARDS AND FOULS
Foster Lyle-ble to overstepping the mark
Lyle Foster is a busy bunny as he looks to make his mark on the Premier League and he has already committed six fouls this season – he’s got three giant centre-backs to throw himself into on Monday. Cullen may be a baby-faced drawer of fouls but he’s not afraid to commit them too – he’s drawn the referee’s whistle on five occasions in three matches.
Yates right in the midst of it
Like Cullen, Ryan Yates doesn’t just bring the referee’s attention because he commits fouls but also because he draws them, happy to use his physicality when it suits but happy to go down easily when necessary – he is fouled 2.19 times per 90. Morgan Gibbs-White, Serge Aurier and Ola Aina are also fouled more than 1.5 times per 90 – plenty of opportunity for Burnley fouls.
FOREST VS BURNLEY PASSING STATS
Don’t expect Forest to dominate the ball
Nottingham Forest have averaged just 33% of the ball across their four matches and there is plenty of reason to expect they won’t dominate the ball on Monday – they only managed 50% at home against newly-promoted Sheffield United. There may be value in Morgan Gibbs-White, however. He’s priced at 4/11 to make 30 or more passes and he attempted more than that vs Sheffield United and Man United.
Burnley should see plenty of the ball
When Burnley played Aston Villa, they managed 57% of the ball and Dara O’Shea played a whopping 109 attempted passes. He even attempted 56 and 60 against Man City and Spurs despite his side having less of the ball – O’Shea is available at 4/11 to attempt 70 or more passes and 9/5 to attempt 90. Keep an eye on Hannes Delcroix too – he attempted 92 in the game v Villa, his only 90 minutes to date.
Forest vs Burnley Key Matchups
- Ryan Yates vs Josh Cullen
- Ola Aina vs Connor Roberts
- Zeki Amdouni vs Willy Boly
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