This is a battle between two very young and promising British managers, Steve Cooper vs Graham Potter. Chelsea are the short priced favourites to prevail but must be careful away at a difficult venue. Forest beat Liverpool here 1-0 and are unbeaten in four straight home games, although do head into this match on the back of a 0-3 defeat to Man Utd. Chelsea warmed up with a fairly regulation 2-0 success at home to Bournemouth and will feel like they really need to kick on and get another victory here.
You can find team stats such as corners, xG, goals, and cards alongside that, all helpful information when looking to put together your bet builders. Alongside the juicy info, you can use my Stats Pack Guide.
Predicted Lineups
Nottingham Forest have major injury doubts surrounding their attackers Morgan Gibbs-White and Jesse Lingard. The former didn’t even feature vs Man Utd whilst Lingard was forced off the field at Old Trafford due to injury. It would probably be a surprise if either play any part here. Emmanuel Dennis or Lewis O’Brien would be candidates to replace Lingard at the left wing spot. Manager Steve Cooper seems to be settled on a 4-3-3 system so the expectation is that he continues with this formation.
Chelsea do have several injury concerns with the likes of N’golo Kane, Ben Chilwell and Wesley Fofana all ruled out for a while. Star right back Reece James picked up another injury vs Bournemouth and looks set to miss most of January. In midfield, Mateo Kovacic should return and will likely replace Denis Zakaria. Cesar Azpilicueta is a natural choice at right back to fill in for James. Moroccan winger Hakim Ziyech is now reportedly available but probably only starts from the bench. Manager Graham Potter is known for his changeable tactics and formations but a back four system is likely again in either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3.
Team stats
Nottingham Forest have scored an average of 0.69 goals per match and conceded 2.06. This correlates closely to their xG and xGA metrics which shows they are legitimately performing quite poorly. Central to their poor defensive record has been their average shots conceded of 15.06 per 90 mins.
Offensively, the East Midlands outfit have been disappointing, hitting the target just 2.81 times per match on average. Forest have conceded a lot of corners. On average their opponents pick up 6.94 in each match. Their disciplinary record has been mixed with 2.31 cards for and 1.88 cards against per 90 mins.
Chelsea average 1.27 goals per game and have underachieved compared to their xG of 1.56. Their defensive record is fairly decent, only conceding 1.13 goals per match and it helps that they only concede an average of 4.40 SOT against per 90 mins. The West London outfit have lacked goals this season and it might be explained by their low shot rate per game of only 11.27. Compared to other teams challenging in the top 7 or 8 then it does feel like they are lacking numbers. Their average shots against are 11.20, although only a third of those are on target.
Corners have been plentiful in Chelsea fixtures at both ends of the field. They average 5.40 per 90 mins and their opponents have racked up 5.54 per game. It is also noticeable how poor Chelsea’s discipline has been. They’ve amassed 2.40 cards per game, nearly double their opponents 1.40. Under Graham Potter maybe things will change with this metric, but they do have a lot of rivalries, so a higher card count does make sense.
Player shots and shots on target
Striker Taiwo Awoniyi averages the most shots for Nottingham Forest per 90 mins firing 2.36. He has converted that into 0.94 SOT, so hasn’t been particularly accurate. Lack of accuracy is a theme for this whole team because nobody else averages more than 0.64 SOT per 90 mins. Brenan Johnson is probably the most reliable Forest shooter but he only fires 1.27 shots per match. His accuracy ratio is close to 50% though. If Emmanuel Dennis starts then he could be one to watch, averaging 2.17 shots per 90 min, although at a terrible accuracy rate of 0.48 SOT.
USA international Christian Pulisic averages the most shots per 90 mins for Chelsea (2.33), but his SOT ratio is very poor, only converting into 0.54. Kai Havertz has been more accurate, averaging 1.11 SOT per 90 mins from his 2.31 shots. Both Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling average close to two shots per game, but neither are especially accurate. Mount did score a good goal vs Bournemouth so his tail will be up.
Player goals and assists
Only three Forest players have scored more than one goal each. Taiwo Awoniyi leads their charts by netting three times, whilst Morgan Gibbs-White has two but is unlikely to be fit here. Gibbs-White has three assists and leads Forest in this category, so would be a key loss for them. Emmanuel Dennis has one assist for Steve Cooper’s men.
Kai Havertz scored against Bournemouth and will likely be leading the forward line again. He’s the top Chelsea scorer with four goals. Both Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount have three goals and are joint leading assisters with two each. Jorginho has scored twice and is a reliable banker from the penalty spot. This has not been the highest scoring season for Chelsea though and there’s been a general lack of goal scorers and assist providers.
Player passing
Forest have only averaged 40% possession, so it is no surprise to see low passing numbers for their squad. Only Worral has averaged more than 50 passes per 90 mins (52.00). Fullbacks Serge Aurier and Neco Williams are next on the list averaging 49.9 and 46.6 passes per 90 mins respectively. It would be a surprise if they have much of the ball here against this Chelsea side. Their tactics will be to hit the opposition on the break.
Chelsea have averaged 58% possession his season and will likely dominate the ball in this fixture. Only three of their players average more than 70 passes per 90 mins though, with veteran Brazilian centre back Thiago Silva leading their metrics (77.10). Some other defenders Kalidou Koulibaly, Cucurella and Azpilicueta also average around the 70 pass mark per 90 mins. Be careful with the five substitutes rule though because some of these individuals don’t always last the entire match.
Nottingham Forest Cards
A trio of Forest players, Joe Worrall, McKenna and Cook all have four cards each. Midfielder Ryan Yates has three cards and fouls the most out of anyone at 2.40 per 90 mins. Right back Neco Williams is another who tends to foul quite a lot (1.56) and he has obtained three cards this season.
Ruben Loftus Cheek is the most fouled Chelsea player but is currently injured. The three players regularly fouled to watch out for are Pulisic, Mount and Ziyech. One of the main reasons for this is due to a high dribbling factor, especially in the case of Pulisic and Ziyech. Mason Mount and Jorginho do attract plenty of attention more centrally and can be foul magnets.
Matchups to watch:
Neco Williams vs Christian Pulisic
Joe Worrall vs Mason Mount
Ryan Yates vs Jorginho
Chelsea cards
Graham Potter’s men rank inside the top ten for cards obtained in the Premier League. Their biggest offender is centre back Kalidou Koulibaly, who also averages 1.30 fouls per 90 mins. Midfielder Connor Gallagher averages 1.79 fouls per 90 mins and has obtained four cards. Gallagher could potentially start here so is one to watch in this disciplinary category. Elsewhere, Kai Havertz actually averages the most fouls per 90 mins (2.31) and picked up three cards in the process. Raheem Sterling & Jorginho also are no strangers to going in the referee’s book either.
Emmanuel Dennis is the standout Forest player to attract fouls and therefore potentially cards. He is fouled on average 3.90 times per 90 mins, and it is no surprise to also see him the top dribbler in the team. He operates on either wing, and should be a candidate to start with Jesse Lingard potentially injured. Midfielder Ryan Yates is certainly not known for his dribbling but is fouled on average 2.48 times per 90 mins. Left back Renan Lodi is fouled on average 2.22 times per game and could be targeted by Raheem Sterling.
Matchups to watch:
Connor Gallagher vs Ryan Yates
Raheem Sterling vs Renan Lodi
Kalidou Koulibaly vs Emmanuel Dennis
My Picks of the Stats Pack
Here’s a few picks that stood out to me as value. Add as many as you’d like to your bet builders or make your own judgements based on the stats pack above.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
1st January
kick off 16:30 Over 9.5 Match Corners
Nottingham Forest games average 10.34 corners.
Chelsea games average 10.94 corners.
Over 3.5 Match CardsNottingham Forest games average 4.19 cards.
Chelsea games average 4.00 cards.
Nottingham Forest average 2.31 cards per game.
Chelsea average 2.40 cards epr game.
Ryan Yates to commit 2+ foulsRyan Yates average 2.40 fouls p/90.
Up against Jorginho and Mounth who are fouled an average of 1.79 and 1.53 times per game.
Christian Pulisic 2+ Shots Christian Pulisic averages 2.33 shots p/90.
Nottingham Forest concede an average of 15.06 shots a game.
